Angels Will Be Missing Wings in Finale Against High-Flying Astros
Los Angeles concludes a three-game home series against the Astros on Sunday at 4:00 ET. Houston is one of the best teams in baseball and will play like it today.
MLB Pick: Astros
LA’s Andrew Heaney (5-6, 3.78 ERA) will fail to replicate his first outing against Houston, an eight-inning, one-run gem on May 14. He was exceptionally strong that outing in terms of location and quality of stuff. On the season, he places his stuff with 13% frequency in the middle three spots within the strike zone. Against Houston, he reduced that percentage by five. His curveball was especially on point. Compared with his season average, it had more velocity and he located it with 2.4% more frequency in the lowest-left edge of the strike zone, which is why the Astros struck out so many times—they didn’t whiff against his curve in any other location.
The southpaw Heaney relies primarily on his sinker. He throws it with 57% frequency and relies on it most in all scenarios. Against Houston, he consistently nailed the peripheries of the zone with it. But normally, he’s apt to leave it in the middle regions of the plate. His relatively poor location makes it less difficult to hit his sinker, which has the highest spin rate and strong horizontal and vertical movement. The spin induces batters to lift it for a fly ball. His second favorite pitch is the curveball, which he throws half as often overall, but almost as often against same-handed batters. He primarily keeps it low in the zone, if it doesn’t fall outside of it. His curve creates a 13 mph velocity differential with his favorite pitch.
Based on the metric SLG-xSLG, Houston is strongly underachieving against the sinker and curve from lefties. They boast the third-highest average exit velocity against those pitches, which means that they are making great contact against them, but the batted balls are unluckily not so often landing for hits. They made great contact against Heaney’s breaking pitches and will benefit from doing so again. When one factors in his third-favorite pitch, the change-up, the Astros rank 12th in slugging and are metrically underachieving. They have the third-highest average exit velo against those pitches.
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Houston’s Lance McCullers (10-4, 3.77 ERA) is yielding over +2 units on the road, against division opponents, in night games, and against left-handed starters. McCullers is coming off a terrible outing against Oakland. In all of the starts which directly ensued an outing in which he allowed a home run or produced three strikeouts or fewer, he conceded either one run or two runs. This trend hit in six instances, the one exception coming against a team which he had to face two consecutive times.
McCullers relies on a high-velocity sinker-curve combo. Both pitches comprise 79% of his arsenal. His most famous and favorite pitch is the curveball. He threw it 24 straight times to win the AL Pennant for Houston. It’s his favorite pitch with two strikes. He likes to locate it in the lowest parts of the zone, which helps make it a great whiff and ground-ball-inducing pitch. He places it in the lowest row of the zone with over 50% frequency, which also makes it play well off his other pitches, which he elevates more often. McCullers throws his curve harder than anybody else. It possesses sharp bite and funky movement. Each of his last three opponents hit under .200 against it.
The Angels rank below average in slugging against his top two pitches and yet are metrically overachieving against them. In their four games against McCullers dating to 2017, they produced either zero or two runs against him. In 88 career at-bats, their BA is .205 and slugging .284 against him. Superstar Mike Trout is 2-for-19 (.105) against him.
Houston is the fourth-most profitable road team, while the Angels are yielding negative units at home. Both of these trends will continue for a winning bet. For good measure, Houston's bullpen ranks first in FIP, while LA's is fourth-to-last.
Los Angeles concludes a three-game home series against the Astros on Sunday at 4:00 ET. Houston is one of the best teams in baseball and will play like it today.
MLB Pick: Astros
LA’s Andrew Heaney (5-6, 3.78 ERA) will fail to replicate his first outing against Houston, an eight-inning, one-run gem on May 14. He was exceptionally strong that outing in terms of location and quality of stuff. On the season, he places his stuff with 13% frequency in the middle three spots within the strike zone. Against Houston, he reduced that percentage by five. His curveball was especially on point. Compared with his season average, it had more velocity and he located it with 2.4% more frequency in the lowest-left edge of the strike zone, which is why the Astros struck out so many times—they didn’t whiff against his curve in any other location.
The southpaw Heaney relies primarily on his sinker. He throws it with 57% frequency and relies on it most in all scenarios. Against Houston, he consistently nailed the peripheries of the zone with it. But normally, he’s apt to leave it in the middle regions of the plate. His relatively poor location makes it less difficult to hit his sinker, which has the highest spin rate and strong horizontal and vertical movement. The spin induces batters to lift it for a fly ball. His second favorite pitch is the curveball, which he throws half as often overall, but almost as often against same-handed batters. He primarily keeps it low in the zone, if it doesn’t fall outside of it. His curve creates a 13 mph velocity differential with his favorite pitch.
Based on the metric SLG-xSLG, Houston is strongly underachieving against the sinker and curve from lefties. They boast the third-highest average exit velocity against those pitches, which means that they are making great contact against them, but the batted balls are unluckily not so often landing for hits. They made great contact against Heaney’s breaking pitches and will benefit from doing so again. When one factors in his third-favorite pitch, the change-up, the Astros rank 12th in slugging and are metrically underachieving. They have the third-highest average exit velo against those pitches.
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Houston’s Lance McCullers (10-4, 3.77 ERA) is yielding over +2 units on the road, against division opponents, in night games, and against left-handed starters. McCullers is coming off a terrible outing against Oakland. In all of the starts which directly ensued an outing in which he allowed a home run or produced three strikeouts or fewer, he conceded either one run or two runs. This trend hit in six instances, the one exception coming against a team which he had to face two consecutive times.
McCullers relies on a high-velocity sinker-curve combo. Both pitches comprise 79% of his arsenal. His most famous and favorite pitch is the curveball. He threw it 24 straight times to win the AL Pennant for Houston. It’s his favorite pitch with two strikes. He likes to locate it in the lowest parts of the zone, which helps make it a great whiff and ground-ball-inducing pitch. He places it in the lowest row of the zone with over 50% frequency, which also makes it play well off his other pitches, which he elevates more often. McCullers throws his curve harder than anybody else. It possesses sharp bite and funky movement. Each of his last three opponents hit under .200 against it.
The Angels rank below average in slugging against his top two pitches and yet are metrically overachieving against them. In their four games against McCullers dating to 2017, they produced either zero or two runs against him. In 88 career at-bats, their BA is .205 and slugging .284 against him. Superstar Mike Trout is 2-for-19 (.105) against him.
Houston is the fourth-most profitable road team, while the Angels are yielding negative units at home. Both of these trends will continue for a winning bet. For good measure, Houston's bullpen ranks first in FIP, while LA's is fourth-to-last.
