Angels Have A Very Minor Problem Tonight In Texas
Los Angeles Angels (42-43) at Texas (46-38)
When: 8:05 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Rangers First-Five RL
Jose Suarez (2-1, 5.57 ERA) makes his fourth start for L.A. both this season and in his career and his first professional start since June 20. He's yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) over 4.50 in each outing.
Every pitcher that appears in the MLB has at least decent stuff. What separates the pitchers who are ready to succeed professionally from those who aren't is command. The 21 year-old Suarez lacks command. In Triple-A, he walked 4.76 batters per nine innings, which is an atrocious statistic even in the MLB.
In the pros, Suarez is allowing walks at a slightly lower rate. But he is also surrendering 2.57 homers per nine innings. In each of his starts, he's allowed at least one homer, despite pitching in some pitcher-friendly ballparks. Texas' Global Life Park is not forgiving for pitchers at all. It ranks among the most hitter-friendly venues based on rate of homers hit off of non-barrel and non-solid contact. Suarez will struggle in Texas where he has a small margin of error, while he needs a large one given his poor command.
Suarez's stuff appears unimpressive. He relies mostly on his fastball, which he throws 47% of the time. It averages 92 mph. He doesn't redeem its lack of velocity with spin, for which his fastball ranks in the 51st percentile. Spin could have deceived batters as to where his fastball would land. He could also have achieved deception by making the release points of his pitches similar, which he doesn't do. He locates his fastball poorly, leaving it over the middle of the plate with 6.63 percent frequency. His fastball doesn't move much, either. For these reasons, opponents bat .375 against it, even though it's his favorite pitch.
Texas is in a great spot as a team. It yields +17.9 units at home and +11.2 units as the favorite. One batter to look for is Elvis Andrus, who's enjoying an eight-game hitting streak and is batting .375 in his past seven days.
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Mike Minor (8-4, 2.40 ERA) just found out that he would represent Texas in the All-Star game. Minor is Texas' second-most profitable starting pitcher, yielding +4.25 units. The Rangers have won the last five games in which he started. He shows great form, lately, having allowed two earned runs in his last two starts (totaling 17 innings) combined.
Minor represents a massive improvement over Suarez in both command and pitch quality. He allows 2.96 walks and 0.96 homers per nine innings. Despite Global Life Park's hitter-friendly reputation, he's been especially solid at home, where he's allowed two homers against 213 batters faced. Minor does a better job avoiding the middle of the plate and hitting the borders of the zone. For example, the three most frequent locations of his favorite pitch the fastball are on the part of the zone both farthest from righties and most inside on lefties. His fastball also has significant spin, for which it ranks in the 99th percentile.
He supports himself with a change-up that, for the second consecutive year, is yielding a BA under .200. He continues to add intense lateral movement to it, while commanding it for a strike rate nearly equal to that of its ball rate. Moreover, his change-up carries deception because its release points are similar to those of his fastball and this similarity masks his delivery. With these three features, his change-up is his favorite whiff-inducing pitch. It's a weapon especially against right-handed batters.
In two starts so far against L.A., Minor has allowed two runs in 15 innings combined. HIs change-up helps explain his success against the Angels, whose lineup is righty-heavy. Albert Pujols and Andrelton Simmons are 2-for-11 (.182) and 2-for-10 (.200) against Minor, respectively.
Los Angeles Angels (42-43) at Texas (46-38)
When: 8:05 p.m. ET
MLB Pick: Rangers First-Five RL
Jose Suarez (2-1, 5.57 ERA) makes his fourth start for L.A. both this season and in his career and his first professional start since June 20. He's yielded an FIP (like ERA, but factors out fielding) over 4.50 in each outing.
Every pitcher that appears in the MLB has at least decent stuff. What separates the pitchers who are ready to succeed professionally from those who aren't is command. The 21 year-old Suarez lacks command. In Triple-A, he walked 4.76 batters per nine innings, which is an atrocious statistic even in the MLB.
In the pros, Suarez is allowing walks at a slightly lower rate. But he is also surrendering 2.57 homers per nine innings. In each of his starts, he's allowed at least one homer, despite pitching in some pitcher-friendly ballparks. Texas' Global Life Park is not forgiving for pitchers at all. It ranks among the most hitter-friendly venues based on rate of homers hit off of non-barrel and non-solid contact. Suarez will struggle in Texas where he has a small margin of error, while he needs a large one given his poor command.
Suarez's stuff appears unimpressive. He relies mostly on his fastball, which he throws 47% of the time. It averages 92 mph. He doesn't redeem its lack of velocity with spin, for which his fastball ranks in the 51st percentile. Spin could have deceived batters as to where his fastball would land. He could also have achieved deception by making the release points of his pitches similar, which he doesn't do. He locates his fastball poorly, leaving it over the middle of the plate with 6.63 percent frequency. His fastball doesn't move much, either. For these reasons, opponents bat .375 against it, even though it's his favorite pitch.
Texas is in a great spot as a team. It yields +17.9 units at home and +11.2 units as the favorite. One batter to look for is Elvis Andrus, who's enjoying an eight-game hitting streak and is batting .375 in his past seven days.
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Mike Minor (8-4, 2.40 ERA) just found out that he would represent Texas in the All-Star game. Minor is Texas' second-most profitable starting pitcher, yielding +4.25 units. The Rangers have won the last five games in which he started. He shows great form, lately, having allowed two earned runs in his last two starts (totaling 17 innings) combined.
Minor represents a massive improvement over Suarez in both command and pitch quality. He allows 2.96 walks and 0.96 homers per nine innings. Despite Global Life Park's hitter-friendly reputation, he's been especially solid at home, where he's allowed two homers against 213 batters faced. Minor does a better job avoiding the middle of the plate and hitting the borders of the zone. For example, the three most frequent locations of his favorite pitch the fastball are on the part of the zone both farthest from righties and most inside on lefties. His fastball also has significant spin, for which it ranks in the 99th percentile.
He supports himself with a change-up that, for the second consecutive year, is yielding a BA under .200. He continues to add intense lateral movement to it, while commanding it for a strike rate nearly equal to that of its ball rate. Moreover, his change-up carries deception because its release points are similar to those of his fastball and this similarity masks his delivery. With these three features, his change-up is his favorite whiff-inducing pitch. It's a weapon especially against right-handed batters.
In two starts so far against L.A., Minor has allowed two runs in 15 innings combined. HIs change-up helps explain his success against the Angels, whose lineup is righty-heavy. Albert Pujols and Andrelton Simmons are 2-for-11 (.182) and 2-for-10 (.200) against Minor, respectively.
