V.K.
Pretty much a regular
Back in early July with time on my hands took a look at this new rule and the impact it would have. Used plays/gm and pts/play from Team Rankings, built a little spreadsheet, watched some dvr of last year's games and these are my conculsions.
--There should be no increase in the speed of plays after a first down. The play clock determines the minimum speed (40 secs) and it will start right after each play just like it has. Each offense has it's rhythm so to speak and will continue to run at their pace. Defenses need to adjust to their opponent, like always, and this running clock will not be hurrying them.
‐-The impact will be minimal and here is an example from my sheet;
Michigan at Ohio State 2022 box score;
Mich. 16 first downs, Buckeyes 23 first downs. 39 total in 60 min of play. Remember the last two minutes of play in each half the clock will still stop. So, 39/60 = .65 first downs per minute. Assuming they are evenly distributed you need to subtract 4 minutes of game time to get those 1st downs where the clock is now running. .65*4=2.6 first downs. So played today this game would have 39- 2.6 = 36.4 first downs with a running clock. With me so far? Watching my dvr see there is on avg a 5 sec stopped of game clock per 1st down.
Soooooo, 36.4 * 5= 182 secs of time lost, or 3 minutes, 2 seconds. Split to each half would be 91 seconds a half.
Then using pts/play and plays/gm on this game it comes out to 1.62 points lost in this game.
Looking at the box score play by play neither team scored last 3 min of each half so the running clock wouldn't have impacted the score, in this case.
Other factors are often overlooked. Incomplete passes stop the game clock. Each one is like a free 25 seconds of game time compared to a running play. TV timeouts another and of course penalties and instant replay. Often times offenses snap the ball quicker after these events as they have the next play ready. So the game clock can swing both ways depending on the game.
So my conculsion is forget about it! Maybe 1-3 points a game. Yet when that backdoor cover you need for that huge parlay runs out of time at the two yard line you'll be cussing at this new rule.
--There should be no increase in the speed of plays after a first down. The play clock determines the minimum speed (40 secs) and it will start right after each play just like it has. Each offense has it's rhythm so to speak and will continue to run at their pace. Defenses need to adjust to their opponent, like always, and this running clock will not be hurrying them.
‐-The impact will be minimal and here is an example from my sheet;
Michigan at Ohio State 2022 box score;
Mich. 16 first downs, Buckeyes 23 first downs. 39 total in 60 min of play. Remember the last two minutes of play in each half the clock will still stop. So, 39/60 = .65 first downs per minute. Assuming they are evenly distributed you need to subtract 4 minutes of game time to get those 1st downs where the clock is now running. .65*4=2.6 first downs. So played today this game would have 39- 2.6 = 36.4 first downs with a running clock. With me so far? Watching my dvr see there is on avg a 5 sec stopped of game clock per 1st down.
Soooooo, 36.4 * 5= 182 secs of time lost, or 3 minutes, 2 seconds. Split to each half would be 91 seconds a half.
Then using pts/play and plays/gm on this game it comes out to 1.62 points lost in this game.
Looking at the box score play by play neither team scored last 3 min of each half so the running clock wouldn't have impacted the score, in this case.
Other factors are often overlooked. Incomplete passes stop the game clock. Each one is like a free 25 seconds of game time compared to a running play. TV timeouts another and of course penalties and instant replay. Often times offenses snap the ball quicker after these events as they have the next play ready. So the game clock can swing both ways depending on the game.
So my conculsion is forget about it! Maybe 1-3 points a game. Yet when that backdoor cover you need for that huge parlay runs out of time at the two yard line you'll be cussing at this new rule.
