Analytics Guys - A new perspective

S

Schrute

Assistant __ ___ Regional Mod
I know Steele is nice but here are a few things I've come across over the past few years that have been incredibly helpful on both a preseason and in-season basis.

Previews of all 128 teams and far better than Steele IMO - http://www.sbnation.com/authors/bill-connelly

S&P Ratings are about the best way to evaluate and offense/defense that I've come across. Description is on the link. http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/ncaadef

Dave Bartoo and CFB Matrix. Big analytics guy who has a TON of information on his site. He works directly with coaches, programs, announcers and recently Phil Steele. I consider him and Connelly the Billy Beane of college football. He also puts all of his radio show appearances and some personal thoughts on his podcast CFBMatrix which I subscribe to in iTunes. http://cfbmatrix.com/

Take a look
 
These are pretty much the only two guys out there I read and trust

I do a ton of college football reading and a lot of the guys out there who call themselves CFB experts in the media know all about Ohio State, Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Oregon, USC, Oklahoma, TCU but are ignorant when it comes to the Group of 5 and smaller P5 teams. If you gamble on this sport, the little guys are equally if not more important than the big fellas

Bartoo and Connelly do a great job of covering everyone. I really like the "coach effect" stuff that Bartoo does. He's basically tracked talent level and on the field W/L performance over the years to determine a coach effect that typically ranges between -2 to +2 games per year.
 
Schrute..Any predictions from last years SBN issue? Would like to see stats from last few seasons if available.. Didn't see where I could look up prior seasons?

Thanks
 
Schrute said:
These are pretty much the only two guys out there I read and trust

I do a ton of college football reading and a lot of the guys out there who call themselves CFB experts in the media know all about Ohio State, Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Oregon, USC, Oklahoma, TCU but are ignorant when it comes to the Group of 5 and smaller P5 teams. If you gamble on this sport, the little guys are equally if not more important than the big fellas

Bartoo and Connelly do a great job of covering everyone. I really like the "coach effect" stuff that Bartoo does. He's basically tracked talent level and on the field W/L performance over the years to determine a coach effect that typically ranges between -2 to +2 games per year.
Click to expand...

I've read Bartoo's stuff before but there's a few things I don't like about his stats:

1. He grades teams by recruiting rankings but doesn't adjust for players that have left for the NFL, so his current team rankings arent entirely accurate.
2. He makes no adjustments as the year goes on for injuries or over/under performing teams/players.
3. He doesn't give more/less points to a team for experience (juniors/seniors)

The information is a good base, but needs some tuning. I was hunting down past rosters to see if I could put together a more accurate ranking that included players that have left for the NFL and trying to develop a point system for star rating/ class ranking (fresh, soph, junior, senoir)

I'll check out the other two guys, though


Thanks for posting
 
I've chatted with Dave some on twitter. He's a good guy and he's really taking off this offseason. Doing a ton of radio shows but what I like about him is he always has something to back up his opinion. He knows which teams have the best talent, which coaches perform above the talent level and if a team performs above/below their talent level at home or on the road. I was listening to his podcast today and he made mention that Richt, on average will lose to one team a year at home that he shouldn't.


So I go back and look
2014 - GT as a solid fav
2013 - Mizzou as a solid fav
2012 - only one regular season loss all year
2011 - SoCar as a decent fav. Boise in ATL but think that line was neutral
2010 - Arky as a decent fav tho maybe they shouldn't have been
2009 - Kentucky as a solid fav

The point is he isn't like a lot of the analysts who just spout nonsense without facts. I really think that I and a lot of guys on here know a lot more than the TV/radio guys when it comes to gambling. I was listening to an afternoon Sirius CFB show last week and there were two hosts, Rachel Baribeau and Braden Gall, who's job is literally to talk college football. They were trying to discuss the Washington Boise game and Gall said "I wonder what the line is." Well first off if you're going to discuss the sport you should be aware of week 1 lines in principle. So he goes to look it up and goes "ohh wowww., Rachel' guess the line." Rachel guesses "21". Gall the asks "who do you think is favored?" Rachel pauses and answers "Boise???" in a questioning time. Gall said he was shocked at the line. I mean how in the fuck can you expect to learn anything from people like that. I love the sport but at this point I am either

1. Reading CTG
2. Discussing games with guys on AIM
3. Scouting twitter for injuries/suspensions/coach interviews
4. Reading Bartoo or Connelly
5. Listening to one of a number of podcasts where the focus is capping and gambling but those don't really kick off until about now

My point is you are not going to educate yourself through sources like ESPN/B10/SECNetwork/FS1 or their respective websites anymore. Bartoo said a stat today that of all the people who attended a CFB game last year, 39% were in a B10 or SEC stadium. So that's 39% of people for 21% of FBS teams. It's hard to blame the networks for catering to a select few fanbases bc those people are the ones who drive the sport and have the biggest and most passionate alumni bases but because of that it has rendered the information of the mega networks essentially useless for those of us who are interested in real information about everyone to help with capping. /endrant
 
Connelly is a good read. He also starts those previews early, so its gives people something to look at in the off season

Agree with your other point. 90% of talking heads are just dipshits that think a journalism degree makes you an expert in a sport. None are held accountable for being wrong like gamblers are
 
The thing with Bartoo, is that his information isn't really handicapping based. He is just a guy who really likes CFB and is good with stats and coming up with new things to research. I do like him though. He is a local guy here, still haven't met him yet.
 
Good stuff here.

Connelly and Steele are my main 2 preseason reads.....I know of CFBMatrix but didn't know it had a podcast. I just subscribed and will give it a listen.

Connelly is solid. He called out OU not being as good last year in his preview....he hits on some and misses on some, just like anyone. But he knows his stuff. And it's good reading all through the summer.....only problem would be that since he does the group of 5 stuff so early, basically over the spring, that it doesn't count for most transfers and such....but nothing he can do about that.

Connelly just started a podcast last week, but not on iTunes yet
If you have any other podcasts that are CFB or gambling related don't be afraid to share them. Podcasts are all I listen to now.....local sports radio is repetitive
 
TheGarfather said:
The thing with Bartoo, is that his information isn't really handicapping based. He is just a guy who really likes CFB and is good with stats and coming up with new things to research. I do like him though. He is a local guy here, still haven't met him yet.[/QUOTE]


#1 Bold. He isn't and he certainly hasn't been but I feel he's trending that way because he realizes it's the path to success

#2 Bold. Maybe you haven't met him but rumor is you've meated him
Click to expand...
 
Schrute said:
My point is you are not going to educate yourself through sources like ESPN/B10/SECNetwork/FS1 or their respective websites anymore. Bartoo said a stat today that of all the people who attended a CFB game last year, 39% were in a B10 or SEC stadium. So that's 39% of people for 21% of FBS teams. It's hard to blame the networks for catering to a select few fanbases bc those people are the ones who drive the sport and have the biggest and most passionate alumni bases but because of that it has rendered the information of the mega networks essentially useless for those of us who are interested in real information about everyone to help with capping. /endrant
Click to expand...

Without a doubt. If you are tuning in to (or reading) ESPN for any help on gambling, you should just quit now. That's why I get so irritated when I hear someone recycle a stat that they obviously heard on ESPN earlier in the week,because its the third time I've heard/read it that week. Nothing you hear on ESPN will help you. If anything, them repeating the same bad info over and over again is going to convince you that a bad bet is a good one.

Bartoo's site is a good tool to use, but it's just a tool to be used with many other forms of information. I remember using coaching effect last year during bowl season when trying to determine which team was going to win in a very even match up
 
Schrute said:
I've chatted with Dave some on twitter. He's a good guy and he's really taking off this offseason. Doing a ton of radio shows but what I like about him is he always has something to back up his opinion. He knows which teams have the best talent, which coaches perform above the talent level and if a team performs above/below their talent level at home or on the road. I was listening to his podcast today and he made mention that Richt, on average will lose to one team a year at home that he shouldn't.


So I go back and look
2014 - GT as a solid fav
2013 - Mizzou as a solid fav
2012 - only one regular season loss all year
2011 - SoCar as a decent fav. Boise in ATL but think that line was neutral
2010 - Arky as a decent fav tho maybe they shouldn't have been
2009 - Kentucky as a solid fav

The point is he isn't like a lot of the analysts who just spout nonsense without facts. I really think that I and a lot of guys on here know a lot more than the TV/radio guys when it comes to gambling. I was listening to an afternoon Sirius CFB show last week and there were two hosts, Rachel Baribeau and Braden Gall, who's job is literally to talk college football. They were trying to discuss the Washington Boise game and Gall said "I wonder what the line is." Well first off if you're going to discuss the sport you should be aware of week 1 lines in principle. So he goes to look it up and goes "ohh wowww., Rachel' guess the line." Rachel guesses "21". Gall the asks "who do you think is favored?" Rachel pauses and answers "Boise???" in a questioning time. Gall said he was shocked at the line. I mean how in the fuck can you expect to learn anything from people like that. I love the sport but at this point I am either

1. Reading CTG
2. Discussing games with guys on AIM
3. Scouting twitter for injuries/suspensions/coach interviews
4. Reading Bartoo or Connelly
5. Listening to one of a number of podcasts where the focus is capping and gambling but those don't really kick off until about now

My point is you are not going to educate yourself through sources like ESPN/B10/SECNetwork/FS1 or their respective websites anymore. Bartoo said a stat today that of all the people who attended a CFB game last year, 39% were in a B10 or SEC stadium. So that's 39% of people for 21% of FBS teams. It's hard to blame the networks for catering to a select few fanbases bc those people are the ones who drive the sport and have the biggest and most passionate alumni bases but because of that it has rendered the information of the mega networks essentially useless for those of us who are interested in real information about everyone to help with capping. /endrant
Click to expand...

That dialogue is remedial at best; again, as pointed out the other day, not everything should necessarily be viewed through the prism of a handicapper, but as you said, in principle, you need to have an idea of how the game is supposed to go if you're going to presume to discuss the game with any sort of knowledge. At least Rachel got the favorite correct (big eye roll).

I like your 5 activities, for the most part anyway, but I am surprised you don't list reading local newspaper/online articles about various teams as one of your activities as well; seems beat writer information and take (and whatnot) would have a place in your repertoire as well.

One thing I like doing during the season is playing coaches interviews, midweek, on my computer while reading local articles of different games entirely. I cover a lot of ground that way. I shall look to add #4 this year to a certain extent.
 
You can use news aggregators to collect news for around the country. Twitter will give you immediate news and big news, mostly on bigger teams, but a news aggregator will give deeper news on the mid-level and smaller schools - team is down to on 4 active LBs, virus going through school etc. You can filter it by key words. I remember one from a few years when a school (I think Kent State) had no fit QBs and had to put an ad in the school paper.
 
What really gets under my skin from the national guys is that in their analysis, last year = this year. Like things teams did poorly last year won't be worked on and improve.
 
horses said:
That dialogue is remedial at best; again, as pointed out the other day, not everything should necessarily be viewed through the prism of a handicapper, but as you said, in principle, you need to have an idea of how the game is supposed to go if you're going to presume to discuss the game with any sort of knowledge. At least Rachel got the favorite correct (big eye roll).

I like your 5 activities, for the most part anyway, but I am surprised you don't list reading local newspaper/online articles about various teams as one of your activities as well; seems beat writer information and take (and whatnot) would have a place in your repertoire as well.

One thing I like doing during the season is playing coaches interviews, midweek, on my computer while reading local articles of different games entirely. I cover a lot of ground that way. I shall look to add #4 this year to a certain extent.
Click to expand...

Great point and you're right I should do more of that

I need to find a Twitter List of all beat writers to have it in one concise location
 
mook said:
What podcasts do you listen to regularly to help you?
Click to expand...


I don't follow their picks but I just enjoy anything that gives reasoning behind a wager.

SaturdayEdge
Opening Line - new one from SportsLine and the CFB betting stuff has been just OK so far
Behind the Bets - Millman will occasionally talk about CFB and so I listen to those
College Football Anthenaeum was good last year but they haven't put one out this year
College Football Extreme is decent but they haven't put one out this year
Take The Points - great but they haven't put one out
On The Line - awesome but they haven't put one out and I'm not sure they're doing it thi syear
Crazy Sheet - pretty decent one with regular podcasts
Beating the Book with Gill Alexander
 
Alan Tongue said:
You can use news aggregators to collect news for around the country. Twitter will give you immediate news and big news, mostly on bigger teams, but a news aggregator will give deeper news on the mid-level and smaller schools - team is down to on 4 active LBs, virus going through school etc. You can filter it by key words. I remember one from a few years when a school (I think Kent State) had no fit QBs and had to put an ad in the school paper.
Click to expand...

Check out the Fanly App, and download it. It aggregates all news articles for teams you add to your team feed. It is similar to Bleacher Report Team Stream, but Fanly's search engine is agnostic, pulling from multiple sources. The Bleacher Report app only gives you their own content. A must download for the CFB handicapper.
 
Agnostic? What does this search engine do with BYU and Notre Dame?
 
OnFireSports said:
Check out the Fanly App, and download it. It aggregates all news articles for teams you add to your team feed. It is similar to Bleacher Report Team Stream, but Fanly's search engine is agnostic, pulling from multiple sources. The Bleacher Report app only gives you their own content. A must download for the CFB handicapper.
Click to expand...

Thanks for the heads up. I will download it this evening
 
OnFireSports said:
Check out the Fanly App, and download it. It aggregates all news articles for teams you add to your team feed. It is similar to Bleacher Report Team Stream, but Fanly's search engine is agnostic, pulling from multiple sources. The Bleacher Report app only gives you their own content. A must download for the CFB handicapper.
Click to expand...

Thanks mate, looks good
 
Analytics is the wave! Great ways of breaking down what really happened. Chris Brown at smartfootball.com is an analytics guy, but a GREAT resource for understanding the HOW, to go along with the analytics WHAT. Learned a whole lot from the guy about what a team is doing & trying to accomplish. Makes understanding match ups much better. Check him out
 
Silkydiamonds said:
Analytics is the wave! Great ways of breaking down what really happened. Chris Brown at smartfootball.com is an analytics guy, but a GREAT resource for understanding the HOW, to go along with the analytics WHAT. Learned a whole lot from the guy about what a team is doing & trying to accomplish. Makes understanding match ups much better. Check him out
Click to expand...


Have you read either of his books?
 
Hey guys - I'm one of the founding Saturday Edge guys and have heard great things about the thread from Jimmyshivers, Lindtrain and the likes so wanted to start participating.

This is an area that I think Schrute has hit the nail on the head.

Bill Connelly is the go-to now for me for pre-season prep. He sets the foundation of what's returning and how good it is, and where he perceives the gaps to be. He talks about what a team did poorly at last year, and how they are going to possibly be better or worse at it. If you want a diatribe about how teams did 20 years ago on turf, thats Phil Steele. Recruiting rankings and returning starters are now readily available almost anywhere so he has become marginalized to me.

I know Bartoo well, and if you are using him for ATS stuff, you will run into some pigeon holes here. His stuff is great, but he's much better at just picking who is going to win the game, not who is going to cover the spread. Completely different animal.

Footballstudyhall.com has awesome stuff all the time, and if you aren't utilizing cfbstats.com to get all of your stats and analysis, you probably are being inefficient.

Regarding finding news, I frequently use google news, and a lot of times I will set alerts on google news to certain blogs or beat writers. You can also create list on twitter, and I create list of just beat writers by conference. Tends to help me wade through the BS and find exactly what I'm looking for, especially when you're talking about some of the smaller conference teams.

Hope this helps, and hope to start a continued dialogue with all of you.
 
Thank you guys for all the great info here, really helpful to me as I am playing catch up. Good season to all.
 
sabertstxvii said:
Hey guys - I'm one of the founding Saturday Edge guys and have heard great things about the thread from Jimmyshivers, Lindtrain and the likes so wanted to start participating.

This is an area that I think Schrute has hit the nail on the head.

Bill Connelly is the go-to now for me for pre-season prep. He sets the foundation of what's returning and how good it is, and where he perceives the gaps to be. He talks about what a team did poorly at last year, and how they are going to possibly be better or worse at it. If you want a diatribe about how teams did 20 years ago on turf, thats Phil Steele. Recruiting rankings and returning starters are now readily available almost anywhere so he has become marginalized to me.

I know Bartoo well, and if you are using him for ATS stuff, you will run into some pigeon holes here. His stuff is great, but he's much better at just picking who is going to win the game, not who is going to cover the spread. Completely different animal.

Footballstudyhall.com has awesome stuff all the time, and if you aren't utilizing cfbstats.com to get all of your stats and analysis, you probably are being inefficient.

Regarding finding news, I frequently use google news, and a lot of times I will set alerts on google news to certain blogs or beat writers. You can also create list on twitter, and I create list of just beat writers by conference. Tends to help me wade through the BS and find exactly what I'm looking for, especially when you're talking about some of the smaller conference teams.

Hope this helps, and hope to start a continued dialogue with all of you.
Click to expand...


Great post. Welcome to the site
 
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