Alright CTG Peeps, Let us talk Survivor!

[B.A.R.]

First off, the flex is I am still involved in 3 pretty good size Survivor Pools through BetOnline.

This is unusual territory for me, to be honest. Once every few years I will make it deep in a pool but haven't played in a big money one in ages.

So, each week has gievn myself an option or two, until now. There are plenty of options, but maybe not all that desirable.

So, we'll go through each pool and you can feel free to opine from there!


150,000 2nd Chance Survivor

Started - 9,504 Players
Survivors - 1,352

Teams I have left (I won't list the obvious dumpster fires)

-San Francisco
-Tennessee
-Jacksonville/Houston
-New England/NY Giants
-Atlanta
-Pittsburgh/Cincinnati
-Tampa Bay/Indy
-Cleveland/Denver
-LA Rams/Arizona
-Philadelphia
-Baltimore/LA Chargers
-Minnesota/Chicago

*I listed two teams playing each other where the line is pretty close to PK


10,000 NFL Survivor

Started - 22,466
Survivors - 288

Teams left:

-Houston
-New England/NY Giants
-Atlanta
-Pittsburgh/Cincinnati
-Tampa Bay/Indy
-Cleveland/Denver
-LA Rams/Arizona
-Baltimore/LA Chargers
-Minnesota/Chicago


421,660 NFL Survivor Contest

Started - 25,200
Survivors - 1,288

Teams left:

-Tennessee
-Houston
-NE/NYG
-Atlanta
-Pitts/Cincy
-Tampa/Indy
-Cleveland/Denver
-LA Rams/Zona
-LA Chargers
-Minny/Chicago



So, for the most part, I have the same gaggle of teams left (excluding SF in the first contest listed). There are so many games this week that can go either way, it seems. So, I have my initial ideas but will save that for after we have some responses.

Hey, if you are still in one of these, feel free to discuss as well!

Also, anyone else looking for Survivor discussion add in your contests PLEASE!

My BIG thing here -- if I can get through all these this week I'd expect a significant amount of survivors to drop out.

 

[rambler882]

New England best chance this week
Arz close 2nd… or you save them vs bears
Bears best shot is tjis week or vs arz

Ill go deeper later

 

[ScopeY]

I've bolded the obvious (home/non-division/faves)

-San Francisco
-Tennessee
-Jacksonville/Houston
-New England/NY Giants
-Atlanta
-Pittsburgh/Cincinnati
-Tampa Bay/Indy
-Cleveland/Denver
-LA Rams/Arizona
-Philadelphia
-Baltimore/LA Chargers
-Minnesota/Chicago

-Houston
-New England/NY Giants
-Atlanta
-Pittsburgh/Cincinnati
-Tampa Bay/Indy
-Cleveland/Denver
-LA Rams/Arizona
-Baltimore/LA Chargers
-Minnesota/Chicago
-Tennessee

-Houston
-NE/NYG
-Atlanta
-Pitts/Cincy
-Tampa/Indy
-Cleveland/Denver
-LA Rams/Zona
-LA Chargers
-Minny/Chicago

I don't know how you can be comfortable taking JAC/HOU, PIT/CIN, ATL, LAR/ARI, BAL/LAC.

Tennessee is a bit two fold, you are obviously taking the best fave in the home/non-division spot and you'll never have an opportunity to take Tennessee again --- but this is going to be played by most of your league so does the expected value actually make sense to do that? Probably not.
Philly would be next on the list of highest fave/non division, but it's arguably against the best opponent compared to others, and on a short week, looking WAY ahead, they have a prime spot week 17 vs the Cards too, where nobody left would have them I'm sure.

The Colts coming off a bye, again in a home/non-divison game... if you think their secondary issues are shored up, I'd lean to taking them in one.

Broncos too, the defense has been much improved, and Russ has been soooo good this year taking care of the ball and methodically going down the field... I am a homer so beware, but I really don't feel uncomfortable clicking this one.

That leaves just 2 other road game fave options ---- Pats/Vikes.

Patriots coming off a bye, vs the lowly giants, with no other use for them.. I can see it.

Vikes scares me, as I think CHI defense is good enough, and Fields can breakout in any game, plus is Dobbs just a short story? Idk if we know yet --- and this is another candidate for most played team in the league, so don't think it makes a lot of sense.

IND/DEN/NEP would be my main decisions, backend PHI/MIN/TEN --- Obviously just super quick thoughts, haven't dived into each game so much yet. I hope you kill it and win all 3.

 

[ScopeY]

I'm sure you use this, but Survivor Grids projected P%.

 

[rambler882]

I tried to go contest by contest and map out each week and best bets, but got too lazy with the teams differing. Simplifying each contest though start with good teams that you will definitely use...1st contest you have the easiest path and the next two are much tougher. So, I'll focus on the 3rd one and just when I'd play the teams

1st contest - SF, PHI, BAL
2nd contest - BAL
3rd contest - N/A

3rd contest
-Houston Week 17 @ Tennessee
-NE Week 12 @ NYG
-NYG Week 13 v. GB
-Atlanta Week 15 @ CAR, Week 17 @ CHI
-Pitts Week 13 v. ARZ, Week 14 v. NE
-Cincy Week 14 v. IND
-Tampa Week 13 v. CAR, Week 18 @ CAR
-Indy Week 17 v. LV
-Cleveland Week 15 v. CHI
-Denver Week 18 @ LV
-LA Rams Week 15 v. WSH, Week 17 @ NYG
-Zona Week 12 v. LAR, Week 16 @ CHI
-LA Chargers Week 13 @ NE, Week 15 @ LV
-Minny Week 14 @ LV
-Chicago Week 16 v. ARZ, Week 17 v. ATL

Week 12 - New England @ NY Giants
Week 13 - Tampa Bay v. Carolina
Week 14 - Minnesota @ Las Vegas
Week 15 - Atlanta @ Carolina
Week 16 - Coin flip galore. Arizona, Chicago, LA Rams, more
Week 17 - Houston @ Tennessee or Indianapolis v. Las Vegas or LA Rams @ NY Giants
Week 18 - Denver @ Las Vegas

Not prescriptive but it at least gives a view into where some matchups may favor you, but quite a few coin flips in total and a few options each week.

 

[B.A.R.]

Much appreciated you guys!

 

[KJ]

Simple thoughts because I suck at survivor but can at least see the week ahead of me for what it is

Matchup: Indy, Tenn (would struggle w/Tenn after that beating but you know they'll likely bounce back)

Situation: Minny

No way in the world I could play Denver off that big SNF win and now watching Russ against the Cleveland defense, just me

 

[rambler882]

@B.A.R. what'd you do?

 

[deuce's wild]

Thanks to Chicago our pool is now down to 37 (started at 1,153).

Choices this week:
Pitt (at home, seem to be getting healthy)
Miami (if lucky enough to still have them)
Tampa (at home and a division game, plus Carolina new head coach) might be stay away
KC on road against GB