All-Star Race Preview Article

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
2022 NASCAR All-Star Race Preview and Pick

NASCAR Cup Series: NASCAR All-Star Race
Sunday, May 22, 2022 at Texas Motor Speedway in Fort Worth, Texas

What Happened at the AdventHealth 400?

Last week, the NASCAR Cup Series staged its AdventHealth 400 at Kansas Speedway.

This race was fraught with mechanical problems and errors during pit stops.

It was a mistake-laden race that created the opportunity for lesser names to perform well simply by avoiding mistakes.

That is exactly what Kurt Busch did. Kurt Busch performed cleanly enough to get the win.

In the process, Kurt Busch edged out Kyle Larson, passing him late in the race while inducing Larson to scrape the wall as part of a race-sealing gesture.

Last week's result is relevant to this one because it is extremely hard in NASCAR to win back-to-back races.

Kurt Busch was already such an unlikely candidate to win last week's race.

He is not the guy one could count on to win consecutive races. There also simply isn't such a guy.

Given the result of the AdventHealth 400, we should exclude Kurt Busch from our list of possible candidates to win this upcoming race.

What Race Is Next?

Next up on the NASCAR Cup Series circuit is the All-Star race at the Texas Motor Speedway near Dallas.

This is an unusually formatted race with a lot of unusual parts.

One thankfully typical fact is that an entry list has already been published for this race.

So, barring any unforeseen circumstances, we already know which drivers will be able to participate in the All-Star Race.

However, instead of the usual 36 or so drivers, there are 20 drivers posted on the entry list.

To be clear, there are 20 drivers locked into the All-Star Race field.

This point of clarity is important to emphasize because one can easily become confused by mixing up the All-Star Open and the All-Star Race.

The All-Star Open will feature 16 drivers. Four participants in this race will make it into the All-Star Race.

What is the All-Star Open?

The All-Star Open is the race that will immediately come before the All-Star Race.

It is therefore the All-Star Race that is the big race that we are worried about and not the All-Star Open.

The All-Star Open is really only important because its results, plus a fan vote, will finalize which drivers will participate in the All-Star Race.

This preceding race, the All-Star Open, will consist in the usual three stages.

Stage 1 requires 20 laps. Stage 2 consists in 20 more laps. Stage 3 ends upon completion of the 50th lap.

The winner of each stage plus the winner of the fan vote will move onto the All-Star Race, joining the 20 drivers also established as participants in the big event.

How Does Qualifying Work?

One other point of possible confusion is qualifying.

It might seem like the All-Star Open is a qualifying event because it basically is one.

However, the All-Star Open will take place right before the All-Star Race does on Sunday.

There will still be qualifying that will take place on Saturday.

So what's the difference between these Saturday qualifying rounds and the All-Star Open?

On Saturday, the 16 All-Star Open competitors will compete in a qualifying round that will be single-car and single-lap.

This is, essentially, a qualifying for the qualifying because it will set the lineup for Sunday's All-Star Open.

As for the 20 established All-Star Race competitors, they get two qualifying rounds, which will also take place on Saturday.

The All-Star Race competitors will participate first in the standard single-car qualifying.

Then, the top eight finishers in that initial qualifying round will move onto a sort of bonus round of qualifying in which they will compete with each other in an elimination bracket.

The All-Star Race

The All-Star Race consists in four stages, not the usual three.

There will be a total of 125 laps. The first three stages each require 25 laps while the last stage consists in 50 laps.

My Guy

I find Kyle Busch most worth investing in because he has accrued more wins at this track than any active NASCAR driver.

He is a consistently strong performer at this track. His overall recent form has also been solid as he has three top-three finishes in his last five tries.

For the above reasons, I recommend betting on Kyle Busch to win the All-Star Race.

Best Bet: Kyle Busch to Win at +600 (Bovada)
 

Dale Earnhardt Jr. praises Kurt Busch's "rare" quality​

Before we dive into Kansas, let's pay attention for a second to what Kurt just said.

Actually, let's let Dale Earnhardt Jr. have a shot at it, first, through Twitter.

"@KurtBusch takes bad teams and makes them better," Junior tweeted Sunday. "He takes teams that didn’t even exist last year and makes them better. It’s a rare quality even some of NASCAR's greats didn’t possess."

Big statement, Dale. But, it's probably true.

Busch has won everywhere he's gone: The championship back in 2004 with Jack Roush; 10 races with Penske from 2006-11; six more times with Stewart-Haas and then one race per year from 2019-21 with Chip Ganassi.

Let's be honest, though ... this one was the most impressive.

Not only did Busch put 23XI Racing in Victory Lane for just the second time, it took him just 13 races to do so and he did it at a 1.5-mile track.

Don't know if y'all have been paying attention or not, but, um, those are the tracks that separate the contenders from the pretenders.
 
Practice has finished and qualifying is going on now. BAS still has their matchups up.

I played these for 1 unit:

Bubba +105 over Harvick
Bubba -110 over Briscoe

Bubba looked good in practice and they appear to be getting better week to week.
It will be a light week for me since this is a weird All-Star race.
Larson looks like he has the best car and this is the type of event he usually wins. Also, the Toyotas look good.
 
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Since BAS kept their matchups up, I ended up betting more than I thought I would.

All at BAS and all for 1 unit:

Bubba +105 over Harvick (Bubba did not qualify that well so I don't know how much I like this anymore)
Bubba -110 over Briscoe
Kurt Busch +120 over Bell (Bell did not look good in practice and he usually qualifies near the top and did not. I would bet more if I could)
Kurt Busch +115 over Bowman (Bowman looked bad in practice and in qualifying. I would bet more if I could)
Almirola -120 over Keselowski (Almirola qualified well, but this is an anti--Keselowski bet who looked bad in practice and qualifying)
 
I added 2 small bets, which will probably be all unless BM has any good matchups:

0.5 unit:
Stenhouse to advance from the Open to the Main Event +125 (Bovada)
Kurt Busch +240 to win Group C over Bowman, Bell, and Logano (Bovada)
 
All-Star Race = - 1.03 units

I don't know why Kurt Busch pitted before the green, white, checker, but he did and went from being in front of Bowman and Bell to finishing behind them. Over a 4 unit swing.

Also, if Nascar does not throw the caution as Blaney was crossing the finish line, I would have won over 3 units instead of losing 1.

2 losing weeks in a row.

Gonna stop fading Keselowski.

Harvick is headed in the wrong direction.

Bubba's pit crew is trash.
 
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I added 2 small bets, which will probably be all unless BM has any good matchups:

0.5 unit:
Stenhouse to advance from the Open to the Main Event +125 (Bovada)
Kurt Busch +240 to win Group C over Bowman, Bell, and Logano (Bovada)
You not using DraftKings anymore for nascar?
 
You not using DraftKings anymore for nascar?
No, I was having to bet through my brother and it was a pain. I started using Bovada after the beginning of the season, it has similar stuff. I have always used Bookmaker and I have used BAS since the 2020 election, so I still use those too.
 
No, I was having to bet through my brother and it was a pain. I started using Bovada after the beginning of the season, it has similar stuff. I have always used Bookmaker and I have used BAS since the 2020 election, so I still use those too.
Understood. Keep up the great work.
 
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