Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Again, disclaimer, I'm an Eagles fan so, you know, f**k you, Santa an' all that.
I also know that I'm going to be against a number of really good 'cappers this week by taking the Eagles (to exacty what extent I'll get to in a minute), but that's sort of how it is.
Here's why.
When the playoffs started, that the Eagles were even in them was a miracle, but when I looked at the field a grand total of two teams scared me. The Giants and the Panthers (with a little worry about Atlanta, but only in Atlanta and I never expected that game to happen). Not just because the Eagles would have to go on the road, but because they both can pound you with the run--and, in Carolina's case, use that to set you up for Steve Smith burning you deep.
Thankfully, the Panthers never made it out of the last round and, well, the Eagles took care of the Giants.
The reason I didn't fear the Vikings, Cards, or really the Falcons is because--and people won't really believe me when I say this, but to me they're all one-dimensional on both sides of the ball. The Vikings are an excellent running team, but with TJ back there if you can make them throw you can win the game going away. On defense, they're good against the run, but if you can get time and throw you're going to have a good day.
The Cardinals strike me as almost the opposite. They're good through the air and not so good on the ground--and frankly, offensively, I don't care about the last two games I'm talking about overall. Then on defense, they're serviceable, they've been playing better (particularly against the run), and they do have some talent there, but they don't strike fear into my heart against either. I think you can beat them over the middle, chew them up if you spread them out.
Which is kind of why I believe the Eagles matchup well against this team.
Offensively, I think the Eagles can put Curtis, Jackson, and Avant on the field at the same time and get one of them or Celek/LJ Smith/Westbrook out in space.
Defensively, let's face it, Larry Fitz is one of the best WRs in the game. He's basically what TO was a couple of years back, what Steve Smith is most every game, a guy who you have to figure will get at least one TD and somewhere around 100 yards every week. It's just going t happen. And I imagine Boldin will play this week, even if he's a little slower than normal he's as good or better than anybody the Eagles put on the field at WR at least from a total package standpoint.
But the Eagles have one advantage here above almost every other team in the league. They are build to stop the pass. They've been playing well against the run, but really, they are built to slow down--and more importantly, turn over--exactly what makes the Cards succeed.
It's strength vs. strength and the reason I like Eagles in that matchup isn't just because I think Jim Johnson can find a way to get Asante, Sheldon, and Lito on Fitz, Boldin, and Breston, but because of Kurt Warner.
Kurt Warner, for as good as he is, still holds onto the ball too long and is still not very mobile. The Eagles feast on QBs like this. It's what their defense lives for.
So not only do I expect pressure from the Eagles, I don't see who Kurt Warner's safety valve is. TE Steven Spach is out, Pope is hurt to the point they had to sign a guy just this week for this game. He can throw jump balls to Larry Fitz, and Fitz will bail him out occasionally, but eventually that luck runs out, just ask Brett Farve's career.
I suppose that leaves Edge who's always been good out of the backfield catching balls, but I think they are going to need a back in there to pass protect more than they are going to be able to slip him out of the backfield.
To be clear. I am putting next to no weight on the first meeting of the season between these two teams. That was a great spot for Philly and a horrible spot for Arizona. You throw that game out, it almost certainly won't be duplicated.
But I'm also not putting much weight on what the Cardinals did last week.
Just like I threw out what Baltimore did to Miami (and what made last week so hard to cap with the Ravens), whenever a QB meltsdown like that, you can and should credit the defense, but you cannot expect that every week. It just doesn't happen. No defense is five INTs and one fumble out of the QB good every week. That's just a guy falling apart for whatever reason.
What I see on Sunday is Donovan throwing well, probably turning it over once, but getting this team into the 20s. My guess is somewhere between 24 and 34, with 27 feeling about right.
If this were a regular season game I would guarantee you two Kurt Warner turnovers, as it is I'll assume we only get one. But I think the Eagles can turn that team over twice on Sunday, hopefully more.
I do think the Cardinals score, however. This should not be a blowout, this should not be a 27-10 score. Nor should be another game where the Eagles hold someone below 20. I think the winner of this game is in the high 20s, the loser in the low 20s.
I don't like that Westbrook says he tweaked his knee a little bit in NY. I think he'll be more limited than people expect and that really hurts the Eagles. (Thank God he'll get two weeks off if they win.)
I think if Wiz dedicates this team to the run that they will have a better chance to win, but I think because they're at home and because Boldin will be back they won't be able to resist the temptation to throw it.
I expect the Arizona fans to show up nice and loud for at least the first three quarters.
But most of all, as I said, I expect a final of something like 27-24, 27-20, 31-24 with the winner almost certainly being the team that wins the turnover battle--or the team that scores TDs off three TOs.
I think the Eagles win, but I hate this number and the ML is too high. It's all public perception and this game should be closer to a pick. Four is just stupid and -200 on the road is laughable. I think the people who are teasing the Cards are smart, simply because anything over DDs with a team that can score fast I always think is a smart play.
I have the Eagles to win the NFC at plus-money so I'm just going to stick with that, I may do a ML parlay with them and the Steelers as that comes out at even-ish money and though it's sort of a sucker play I like both those teams to win.
What I will however will be playing is the over.
This feels even more like a sucker play, and I wanted the number down around 44, but at 47 (-105) I like the price and I do think these teams can get to 50. I really see both these teams throwing the ball and being able to move the ball well.
But I also see turnovers, and that means points.
Over 47 - 2 units
Good luck with whatever you do.
Go Birds.
I also know that I'm going to be against a number of really good 'cappers this week by taking the Eagles (to exacty what extent I'll get to in a minute), but that's sort of how it is.
Here's why.
When the playoffs started, that the Eagles were even in them was a miracle, but when I looked at the field a grand total of two teams scared me. The Giants and the Panthers (with a little worry about Atlanta, but only in Atlanta and I never expected that game to happen). Not just because the Eagles would have to go on the road, but because they both can pound you with the run--and, in Carolina's case, use that to set you up for Steve Smith burning you deep.
Thankfully, the Panthers never made it out of the last round and, well, the Eagles took care of the Giants.
The reason I didn't fear the Vikings, Cards, or really the Falcons is because--and people won't really believe me when I say this, but to me they're all one-dimensional on both sides of the ball. The Vikings are an excellent running team, but with TJ back there if you can make them throw you can win the game going away. On defense, they're good against the run, but if you can get time and throw you're going to have a good day.
The Cardinals strike me as almost the opposite. They're good through the air and not so good on the ground--and frankly, offensively, I don't care about the last two games I'm talking about overall. Then on defense, they're serviceable, they've been playing better (particularly against the run), and they do have some talent there, but they don't strike fear into my heart against either. I think you can beat them over the middle, chew them up if you spread them out.
Which is kind of why I believe the Eagles matchup well against this team.
Offensively, I think the Eagles can put Curtis, Jackson, and Avant on the field at the same time and get one of them or Celek/LJ Smith/Westbrook out in space.
Defensively, let's face it, Larry Fitz is one of the best WRs in the game. He's basically what TO was a couple of years back, what Steve Smith is most every game, a guy who you have to figure will get at least one TD and somewhere around 100 yards every week. It's just going t happen. And I imagine Boldin will play this week, even if he's a little slower than normal he's as good or better than anybody the Eagles put on the field at WR at least from a total package standpoint.
But the Eagles have one advantage here above almost every other team in the league. They are build to stop the pass. They've been playing well against the run, but really, they are built to slow down--and more importantly, turn over--exactly what makes the Cards succeed.
It's strength vs. strength and the reason I like Eagles in that matchup isn't just because I think Jim Johnson can find a way to get Asante, Sheldon, and Lito on Fitz, Boldin, and Breston, but because of Kurt Warner.
Kurt Warner, for as good as he is, still holds onto the ball too long and is still not very mobile. The Eagles feast on QBs like this. It's what their defense lives for.
So not only do I expect pressure from the Eagles, I don't see who Kurt Warner's safety valve is. TE Steven Spach is out, Pope is hurt to the point they had to sign a guy just this week for this game. He can throw jump balls to Larry Fitz, and Fitz will bail him out occasionally, but eventually that luck runs out, just ask Brett Farve's career.
I suppose that leaves Edge who's always been good out of the backfield catching balls, but I think they are going to need a back in there to pass protect more than they are going to be able to slip him out of the backfield.
To be clear. I am putting next to no weight on the first meeting of the season between these two teams. That was a great spot for Philly and a horrible spot for Arizona. You throw that game out, it almost certainly won't be duplicated.
But I'm also not putting much weight on what the Cardinals did last week.
Just like I threw out what Baltimore did to Miami (and what made last week so hard to cap with the Ravens), whenever a QB meltsdown like that, you can and should credit the defense, but you cannot expect that every week. It just doesn't happen. No defense is five INTs and one fumble out of the QB good every week. That's just a guy falling apart for whatever reason.
What I see on Sunday is Donovan throwing well, probably turning it over once, but getting this team into the 20s. My guess is somewhere between 24 and 34, with 27 feeling about right.
If this were a regular season game I would guarantee you two Kurt Warner turnovers, as it is I'll assume we only get one. But I think the Eagles can turn that team over twice on Sunday, hopefully more.
I do think the Cardinals score, however. This should not be a blowout, this should not be a 27-10 score. Nor should be another game where the Eagles hold someone below 20. I think the winner of this game is in the high 20s, the loser in the low 20s.
I don't like that Westbrook says he tweaked his knee a little bit in NY. I think he'll be more limited than people expect and that really hurts the Eagles. (Thank God he'll get two weeks off if they win.)
I think if Wiz dedicates this team to the run that they will have a better chance to win, but I think because they're at home and because Boldin will be back they won't be able to resist the temptation to throw it.
I expect the Arizona fans to show up nice and loud for at least the first three quarters.
But most of all, as I said, I expect a final of something like 27-24, 27-20, 31-24 with the winner almost certainly being the team that wins the turnover battle--or the team that scores TDs off three TOs.
I think the Eagles win, but I hate this number and the ML is too high. It's all public perception and this game should be closer to a pick. Four is just stupid and -200 on the road is laughable. I think the people who are teasing the Cards are smart, simply because anything over DDs with a team that can score fast I always think is a smart play.
I have the Eagles to win the NFC at plus-money so I'm just going to stick with that, I may do a ML parlay with them and the Steelers as that comes out at even-ish money and though it's sort of a sucker play I like both those teams to win.
What I will however will be playing is the over.
This feels even more like a sucker play, and I wanted the number down around 44, but at 47 (-105) I like the price and I do think these teams can get to 50. I really see both these teams throwing the ball and being able to move the ball well.
But I also see turnovers, and that means points.
Over 47 - 2 units
Good luck with whatever you do.
Go Birds.
Go Eagles :cheers: We will get this one Joe. Eagles by 9. :shake:
Eagles over the little red birds.:cheers:
