ALL ABOARD the lindetrain - Week 6

L

lindetrain

Pretty much a regular
Week 5: 4-10, -7.03 units
YTD: 32-30-1, +1.69 units

Saturday was one of those days you dread...where absolutely nothing goes your way and things just keep getting worse and worse. It was easily the most money I've lost in a single day since I started gambling, which is pretty disheartening after two great weeks. I figured things couldn't keep going as well as they did, but I didn't see that coming...

Onto Week 6. I know I'm a little late in posting but I was out of town until late last night and didn't have time to update everything...

Marshall (+2.5) at Memphis
Rice (+19) at Southern Miss
Kentucky (+2.5) at South Carolina
Utah (+16.5) at Louisville
Colorado (-7) at Baylor
West Virginia (-26.5) at Syracuse
Bowling Green (+21.5) at Boston College
Minnesota (+14) at Indiana
Georgia Tech (-0.5) at Maryland
Northwestern (+16.5) at Michigan State
Eastern Michigan (+32.5) at Michigan
Wake Forest (-10) at Duke
Miami (-10) at North Carolina
Central Michigan (+8.5) at Ball State
Vanderbilt (+9) at Auburn
Wisconsin (+2) at Illinois
Houston (+11.5) at Alabama
Louisiana Tech (+10) at Ole Miss
Northern Illinois (-3) at Temple
UAB (+14.5) at Mississippi State
Ohio (-6) at Buffalo
Kansas (+4) at Kansas State
Oklahoma State (+7.5) at Texas A&M
TCU (+1) at Wyoming
Arizona State (-8) at Washington State
Arizona (+5.5) at Oregon State
Miami OH (+14.5) at Kent State
Oklahoma (-9) at Texas
Georgia (+2) at Tennessee
South Florida (-16.5) at Florida Atlantic
Iowa (+9) at Penn State
NC State (+17.5) at Florida State
Idaho (+4) at San Jose State
Fresno State (-0.5) at Nevada
San Diego State (+8.5) at Colorado State
Virginia Tech (+5) at Clemson
Stanford (+33) at USC
Cincinnati (+4.5) at Rutgers
North Texas (+5.5) at UL Lafayette
Tulane (+2) at Army
Troy (-14) at Florida International
Virginia (-13.5) at Middle Tennessee
Arkansas State (-0.5) at UL Monroe
Iowa State (+21.5) at Texas Tech
Akron (+9) at Western Michigan
Central Florida (-4) at East Carolina
Florida (+10) at LSU
Ohio State (-4) at Purdue
Notre Dame (+19.5) at UCLA
UNLV (+8.5) at Air Force
Tulsa (+2) at UTEP
Nebraska (+5) at Missouri
Utah State (+33.5) at Hawaii
New Mexico State (+17.5) at Boise State
 
Initial thoughts:

Spurrier pretty much dominates Kentucky, and I think that is definitely reflected in this line. But does he have the horses to not only beat them, but win by more than a FG in this game? I hardly think so. Their win against Mississippi State was not overwhelming - they trailed in the 2nd half before pulling away with some scores late. Their defense has not been great against the run which will be a major problem if they key in on stopping Woodson, as Little/Dixon/Smith/Locke can run for days on most teams. I think SC is very comparable to Arkansas as they are a little weaker on offense and a little better on defense...and UK handled the Hogs despite a few costly mistakes.

I had the pleasure of going to Camp Randall last Saturday, but I didn't like what I saw from Wisconsin. Their defense was extremely slow and was horrible with their pursuit, and MSU's speed guys ran right past them. While it's easy to think that was just a bad effort, it's the 2nd time in three weeks they've given up 30+ points, and the third time this season they've given up 20+ points. Is this the same defense as last year? Their offense played well, but Donovan was not spectacular and looks very vulnerable to me. I think Illinois has an excellent chance to exploit them as they have plenty of speed on offense and a defense that in my opinion is very underrated and can stop the run. I heard a few Wisconsin fans saying "yeah, I think Illinois is good this year" on my way out of the stadium, which shows me they think is a for sure win - and with the big Penn State tilt on deck, I think they look past the Illini and really get spanked.

Minnesota is an absolutely terrible team, and Indiana is clicking on all cylinders right now, but I am not going to forget last year's game where it was the exact same situation and the Gophers put up 63 on them. Do you really expect the Hoosiers to have any success stopping them on the ground? The Minnesota coaches have plenty to go by judging by last year's game where they put up 500+ yards and ran for 6.5 YPC. Indiana is in a classic letdown spot after the big win over Iowa, and I certainly expect them to underestimate a team who should be able to put up some points on them. Do not forget this Minnesota offense scored 30+ points in each of their first four games; the Indiana defense has yet to shut down a I-A team.

They have sucked absolutely all the value out of Vanderbilt, but they still look like a tempting play as it is a perfect situation for them to go in and potentially upset Auburn. We are not about to forget how horrendous the Tigers were in the weeks leading up to their upset win over Florida - Cox played the game of his life in Gainesville and I hardly expect him to duplicate that success. Vandy has given plenty of SEC teams fits on the road in recent years, and this may be the best team they've had yet.

Kansas might be my first 2-unit bet of the year. It seems so fitting for Kansas State to thrash them, coming off their big momentum-building win over Texas and with the chance to avenge last year's loss to the Jayhawks, right? I think not. While they have beat up on cupcakes, it has been extremely impressive, as they have not let down once and kept a team in the game. Now they have a week to prepare for a team who will most certainly be emotionally drained after what they did in Austin last week, which is a season-defining win for them. Did you bother to look at the box score? KSU hardly did anything on offense. This is a perfect spot for the Jayhawks to come in and show they're for real against a team who I know will not have their minds right for this game - despite it being a rivalry.

The Georgia being great on the road trend has now been exposed by everyone, as ESPN wouldn't shut up about it a couple weeks ago. Now they're catching points on the road to Tennessee after all that, which at first glance makes them a very tempting bet. Despite this, I can't help but believe UT's brightest days are ahead of them and they come into this game with a major chip on their shoulder. Everyone is talking about Fulmer being gone, how they play no defense, etc...do you really think they're just going to mail it in after 4 games? They've had an extra week to get the ship righted and work out their kinks, and create an excellent gameplan for Georgia. The Dawgs think they've got this, since they are now apparently the greatest road team to ever walk the Earth.

That's what I've got for now...
 
GL this week linde. I have no thoughts on UK/USC myself, but there are some strong opinions on each side here.

I am on the other side of Kansas though - GL this week.
 
Really giving San Diego State a hard look. It's easy to assume Colorado State breaks through and picks up their first win of the season after 4 tough games - but I think their confidence has to be shattered at this point. TE Kory Sperry is out for the year, they have become less competitive in each game they've played, and now they're supposed to all of a sudden turn it up and thrash SDSU? Maybe the Aztecs got killed by Cincy last week, but atleast they showed a little life at the end of the game and in their win over Portland State a couple weeks ago. Oh yeah, and SDSU has won the last two meetings between these teams, including a 17-6 victory last year.

Am I the only one who thinks Fresno could be a decent play? They didn't do much against La Tech, but really took control in the 2nd half which may have pumped a little life back into them. Nevada has won their last two games, yet for some reason I still think the Bulldogs are the better team. Am I onto something here?
 
lindetrain said:
Really giving San Diego State a hard look. It's easy to assume Colorado State breaks through and picks up their first win of the season after 4 tough games - but I think their confidence has to be shattered at this point. TE Kory Sperry is out for the year, they have become less competitive in each game they've played, and now they're supposed to all of a sudden turn it up and thrash SDSU? Maybe the Aztecs got killed by Cincy last week, but atleast they showed a little life at the end of the game and in their win over Portland State a couple weeks ago. Oh yeah, and SDSU has won the last two meetings between these teams, including a 17-6 victory last year.

Am I the only one who thinks Fresno could be a decent play? They didn't do much against La Tech, but really took control in the 2nd half which may have pumped a little life back into them. Nevada has won their last two games, yet for some reason I still think the Bulldogs are the better team. Am I onto something here?
Click to expand...

Bro, whatever you do...DON'T BET MONEY ON THE AZTECS!

:cheers:
 
aztec,

I completely agree, nor should one bet CSU either...that game just smells bad...

lindetrain,

good luck to you this week bud...
 
lindetrain said:
Spurrier pretty much dominates Kentucky, and I think that is definitely reflected in this line. But does he have the horses to not only beat them, but win by more than a FG in this game? I hardly think so. Their win against Mississippi State was not overwhelming - they trailed in the 2nd half before pulling away with some scores late. Their defense has not been great against the run which will be a major problem if they key in on stopping Woodson, as Little/Dixon/Smith/Locke can run for days on most teams. I think SC is very comparable to Arkansas as they are a little weaker on offense and a little better on defense...and UK handled the Hogs despite a few costly mistakes.
Click to expand...

Anything else to say? If you want to go off on this game, then PM me if you don't want to congest your thread. I am really looking forward to your analysis on this game because, just like UGA vs Bama, I see this game as one of the most evenly matched in the SEC.
 
Blue_Chip said:
Anything else to say? If you want to go off on this game, then PM me if you don't want to congest your thread. I am really looking forward to your analysis on this game because, just like UGA vs Bama, I see this game as one of the most evenly matched in the SEC.
Click to expand...

I have seen a ton of very respected posters who know what they're doing at the other site on SC, and for once I can't figure it out for the life of me. I think a lot of people like fading a public dog who everyone is in love with like UK, but I am not going to ignore some of the advantages they have in this game.

Look at some of the rushing totals SC has given up this year. 252 vs. ULL (5.4 per), 128 vs. UGA (4.1 per), 196 vs. SC St. (4.2 per), 290 vs. LSU (5.8 per), and 140 vs. MSU (3.3 per). That is absolutely horrible run defense.

And these are all teams with QBs who I personally don't think are that great. Who is the best QB they've seen - Stafford? Flynn? Their opponent's passing game hasn't even been a big threat which they have to focus on, yet they still can't stop anyone on the ground. Now they're supposed to stop a dual-threat attack? The Cocks HAVE to respect Woodson and the passing game, but somehow they're also supposed to stop a rushing game that is extremely underrated and can run for 4-5 YPC no problem. How much more success will they have on defense than Arkansas? Maybe some, but it's hard to envision much.

Then you go to the offensive side of the ball and I really have to question how SC is going to put up a ton of points. They have been pretty much no good last year, with a mediocre running game and questionable QB play. Sure Smelley was decent against MSU, but how does he handle the pressure under the lights on a Thursday night game which is BIG for this team? He doesn't strike me as the type who is going to step up and take over the game. Listen, UK's defense may not overwhelm anyone, but they find a way to help the team win games. What weapons does SC present that makes anyone think they will light up this D? I think they should run for around 150, but I don't think the passing game will be a big success and I see UK holding them around 350 total yards.

Maybe the coaching is a big disadvantage, but UK is playing with a ton of confidence right now and I don't see what mental advantage SC has in this game. They have yet to play that outstanding game since beating UGA, and all of a sudden they're supposed to come into this one flying high? If anything, I have to think SC is more concerned with some of the problems they're having than anything. UK meanwhile has found their identity and knows they're a great football team.

Just my thoughts on the game...I think UK is the only way you can play it regardless of what the public thinks.
 
Here's what I'm interested in anyone's thoughts on:

Vanderbilt - perfect spot, right? I remember writing in my preseason preview the Dores were 11-2 ATS as road dogs the last 3 years. Don't they have a realistic shot with the upset?

Tennessee - this is NOT a popular pick by any means, but I am in love with it. Everyone is drooling all over UGA being a great road team...and Tennessee has had a bad taste in their mouths for weeks that I know they're dying to get out. Maybe their D isn't great, but I know Ainge is a good QB and I love Cutcliffe. I really, really think they win this game.

What does anyone think of Fresno State? I sorta think they're the better team...I'm just not sure Nevada is ready to lay chalk on the road. It's sorta hard to tell with Fresno because they haven't really played an opponent at their level (two weaker teams, two much better teams), but I think they have a good D and running game. Can they hang in this number?

I would love someone to bring other games to my attention as well...
 
I missed the opener (9 I think it was?) with Vandy, so I don't have to much interest in only getting 7 here. I have a tough time seeing Vandy being able to get more than 14-17 here, so I think that 7 is about right.

I have no lean on UGA/Tenn, but I would certainly not bet UGA based on Richt SEC road mark.

Nevada is at home against Fresno.


My biggest side play of the week is TCU +4. Really looking at Temple +4 now as well.
 
lindetrain said:
Oh, and what about ECU? Is that not somewhat appealing?
Click to expand...

I am on UCF at -3, but could buy out of it if Kevin Smith is out. ECU had a nice performance against Houston, but they were decimated in the passing game. Houston outgained them and missed three FGs. They really should have lost that game. ECU's run D is underrated, but their offense is pretty pathetic.
 
I don't know why I said that about Nevada, I knew they were at home.

TCU looks a lot better at 4 than 3, atleast in my eyes. That team is just fucking confusing to me. But how could anyone bet Wyoming? My only concern there is them playing another Air Force-type game.

I'm done with the Temple experiment. I'm 1-1 with them this year and I don't feel like predicting whether they play good or bad anymore. 37 points to Army?
 
Eh, keep in mind that 21 of those 37 points were on defensive/special teams TDs.

NIU's only real strength is RB Justin Anderson - that is really it. Nicholson gets his yards, but makes way too many mistakes and needs all day in the pocket. Temple has been victimized more through the air than on the ground, so I like this matchup.

NIU's defense is absolutely horrendous. Injuries have decimated this D. The D-line is the worst I have seen this year (besides Larry English). CMU just simply ran plays away from English. DeMichele should have his way IMO and Harper should help on the ground.

This is also Temple's homecoming and NIU's third straight roadie.
 
Don't get me wrong, saying "It's Temple" is probably a good enough defense against the play.

Any thoughts on Rice assuming Jeremy Young doesn't play?
 
I remember Matador saying Rice hasn't lost a conference game by more than 21 points ever, for what that's worth...

Rice may be worth a shot. I do not like fading a good team such as USM and a good coach off an embarrassingly bad loss though...
 
North Carolina +7

Going into Blacksburg with a young team and hanging in there, being 56 yards away from tying the game up late in the 4th quarter is most definitely a confidence booster if you ask me...I think the Heels are ready to break out. If Shannon was the DC under Davis for a year, wouldn't Davis know his schemes? I think this is a great opportunity for UNC to play well and show they are improving under Davis...there is a lot of young talent on that team.
 
Tennessee -1.5
Vanderbilt +7.5
Kansas +3 (+105)
Florida +8.5

And what could be my final Temple bet all year...

Temple ML (+155) - 0.78 units
 
I don't know why I like so many SEC games this week.

Updated card:

Illinois -2.5 (-103)
San Diego State +13 (-103)
North Carolina +7
Tennessee -1.5
Vanderbilt +7.5
Kansas +3 (+105)
Florida +8.5
Temple ML (+155) - 0.78 units
 
Linde, good luck to your boys tonight. Hope it is a hard fought battle and the better team wins on the field.

Did you make a play on the game, if so I must of missed it
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" width="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Linde - I read one day that KA used to coach you in hs... he and I used to pitch together our first couple years in college and hell we even played on the same t-ball team. he taught me his nasty "tear-drop" change back in our hs summer ball days. i hear tony-red is in college now too - feels like i'm getting old as fuck. stay outta trouble down south. gl with your plays saturday
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Grind_4_Mine said:
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" width="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Linde - I read one day that KA used to coach you in hs... he and I used to pitch together our first couple years in college and hell we even played on the same t-ball team. he taught me his nasty "tear-drop" change back in our hs summer ball days. i hear tony-red is in college now too - feels like i'm getting old as fuck. stay outta trouble down south. gl with your plays saturday

</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Click to expand...

I know Tony real well, played baseball with him and he lived next door...

:cheers:
 
Congrats on a great day linde. You outcapped me on Kansas (even when KSU took the 24-21 lead, I told my friends that I don't even deserve a push on this one). Great call on the Aztecs too, didn't see that coming.

How 'bout them Temple Owls?
 
Dmoney416 said:
Congrats on a great day linde. You outcapped me on Kansas (even when KSU took the 24-21 lead, I told my friends that I don't even deserve a push on this one). Great call on the Aztecs too, didn't see that coming.

How 'bout them Temple Owls?
Click to expand...

I was sitting there watching up in Clemson thinking, "man, I want to start a dmoney worship thread!" Awesome win. I appreciate that man.

Forgot to post here that I added Kent State -9 late Friday night (second straight week I've added losers on Friday night), so I really went 7-3. Regardless it went really well, as I feel like I nailed some of these games.
 
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