ALL ABOARD the lindetrain - Week 3

L

lindetrain

Pretty much a regular
Week 2: 6-7, -1.74 units
YTD: 11-12, -1.23 units

Really a crazy week...got to see a lot of great things (big SC win for me and my prop bet, Auburn got exposed), but had a lot of disappointing losses. Hoping for things to really pick up here soon...

West Virginia (-9) at Maryland
TCU (-7.5) at Air Force
Oklahoma State (-12.5) at Troy
Buffalo (+32.5) at Penn State
Temple (+20) at Connecticut
Akron (+14) at Indiana
Pittsburgh (+5.5) at Michigan State
Virginia (+0.5) at North Carolina
Illinois (-10) at Syracuse
Cincinnati (-9) at Miami OH
Eastern Michigan (+13) at Northern Illinois
Central Michigan (+16) at Purdue
Mississippi State (+12.5) at Auburn
Minnesota (-2.5) at Florida Atlantic
Ohio (+21.5) at Virginia Tech
Iowa (-16.5) at Iowa State
Western Michigan (+17) at Missouri
Texas Tech (-16) at Rice
Tennessee (+10) at Florida
Utah State (+42) at Oklahoma
Texas (-12.5) at Central Florida
Ohio State (-5.5) at Washington
Notre Dame (+10.5) at Michigan
Army (+22.5) at Wake Forest
Florida International (+32) at Miami
UCLA (-10.5) at Utah
Ball State (+8) at Navy
Southern Miss (-2) at East Carolina
Louisiana Tech (+29.5) at California
Arkansas (+7) at Alabama
UL Monroe (+25.5) at Texas A&M
Fresno State (+18.5) at Oregon
Ole Miss (+2) at Vanderbilt
Toledo (+12) at Kansas
Houston (-9.5) at Tulane
Louisville (-1.5) at Kentucky
USC (-6.5) at Nebraska
Middle Tennessee (+40.5) at LSU
Boston College (+6.5) at Georgia Tech
Wyoming (+10.5) at Boise State
Duke (+16.5) at Northwestern
UTEP (+6.5) at New Mexico State
BYU (-2) at Tulsa
Hawaii (-12.5) at UNLV
San Diego State (+20) at Arizona State
New Mexico (+3) at Arizona
San Jose State (+3) at Stanford
Florida State (-9) at Colorado
Idaho (+20) at Washington State
 
I have some BIG differences this week. Here are my thoughts at first glance:

West Virginia is pretty damn good, but Maryland catching 3 scores on a big Thursday night game may be hard to pass up. Even Bernard Morris looked pretty good against that WVU defense, which could mean trouble as the Terps have some playmakers at RB and WR.

Talk about an overreaction to Temple getting blown out vs. Buffalo. Now they're catching 30 to UConn? I do think the Huskies are better this year and I know the Owls looked horrible last week, but they showed against Navy they will be more competitive this year. I think this line is a good 5-6 points off atleast.

Fuck it, I'm tempted to bet Mississippi State. Surely Tuberville will atleast consider playing his backup QB this week? Cox was unbelievably bad against USF, and I want to see this offense cover a DD spread. I really just want to fade Auburn until I lose.

Really good spot for Miami, in the big rivalry game with Cincy coming off the big upset win. They looked pretty damn good up in Minnesota last week, coming back to force OT after trailing by 16. Wouldn't be surprised at all if they took it down to the wire.

Can't make any sense of it, but I like Toledo.

No value according to my PR, but I still like Michigan State. I think Pitt gets fucking dominated in that game, just like they did last year. I can't wait to fade the Panthers.

I really like Kentucky. Call me a homer or whatever, but I'll be damned if this isn't the best shot they've had at U of L in quite some time. They sure as hell have more confidence heading in, as they looked good against Kent State and Louisville looked horrible against MTSU.

Alabama is going to blow Arkansas out. Saban's SEC home debut, against a team who should've lost this meeting last year. I think they win this game by DD for sure.

I want USC to prove to me they're this good. Laying 10 points in Nebraska's biggest home game in years? They've played 1 game this year, and they didn't even play that well in it. Have they even proven they're Goliath yet?

Florida State line is too low; Arizona line is way too high. How in the fuck is Minnesota laying 10 on the road to FAU?
 
interesting power rating lines lindy.

Talk about an overreaction to Temple getting blown out vs. Buffalo. Now they're catching 30 to UConn? I do think the Huskies are better this year and I know the Owls looked horrible last week, but they showed against Navy they will be more competitive this year. I think this line is a good 5-6 points off atleast.
i thought the same thing ....... i have bet temple each of the first two weeks. starting to think i have a hard on for one of the worst teams around but shit ... like you say this is a bit much ... when did uconn become a -30.5 point team ???

I am pounding the under in the ark/bama game at anything 45 or higher and i expect it to open in the 48 range. hate favorites and unders in the same game so even though i lean bama , i probably wont bet it. thoughts on total points scored in this one lind ?
 
lindetrain said:
West Virginia is pretty damn good, but Maryland catching 3 scores on a big Thursday night game may be hard to pass up. Even Bernard Morris looked pretty good against that WVU defense, which could mean trouble as the Terps have some playmakers at RB and WR.

Talk about an overreaction to Temple getting blown out vs. Buffalo. Now they're catching 30 to UConn? I do think the Huskies are better this year and I know the Owls looked horrible last week, but they showed against Navy they will be more competitive this year. I think this line is a good 5-6 points off atleast.

Florida State line is too low
Click to expand...

Agree with all the quoted above. GL this week
 
That UGA win was huge for the season total over 7, looking nice. Hopefully things go well and they get to 7-1 before Tennessee which is the way I had the season going in the preseason.

I want to fade Auburn real bad but I think I might play the under if the # is good enough.

A lot of your power-rankings are right on, thats pretty damn good. Good Job


Looking forward to your breakdown of the UL-UK game, I agree, it is your best shot in yr's.
 
GL this week linde - missed this thread for some reason.

Agree to a point on Miami OH, they could be fired up early. However, I don't see too much to get excited about on this offense and I tend to think that their offensive explosion last week was more due to Minny's piss poor D.

GL this week.
 
There have been some good points on USC, and perhaps it would be silly of me to not give them the respect they deserve at this point. They aren't battle tested but they are coming off a bye week, which is just another advantage. You know they're itching to get out there and show what they're capable of as they haven't gotten to do anything yet.

A few thoughts:

Why do I get the odd feeling TCU plays like shit Thursday night? They just played their Super Bowl and got blown away after leading by 10, and now have to turn around and play a game 5 days later on the road. Air Force, on the other hand, has to feel pretty good about themselves after beating Utah. I for one am not impressed by TCU's offense at all, so this looks appealing right now.

I'm really starting to come around on Notre Dame. With Henne being out, I'm not sure there's many advantages for UM. And, the dog traditionally does well in this series. Taking the better coach and more than a TD, with a team who hasn't forgotten last year's spanking? Seems interesting to me.

I still really like Toledo. Technically, since Kansas beat CMU by 45 and CMU beat Toledo by 21, Kansas should be around -60 here, but I like the Rockets despite getting ripped off by about 40 points. Since when does Kansas lay over 3 scores to one of the MAC's better teams?

UL Monroe and Idaho are looking very appealing as big doggies. What in the hell is Texas A&M doing on defense? I can't help but think the Warhawks run right through them with that dynamic backfield, and possibly keep it close. Idaho is somewhat of a rival with Wazzu, and I read somewhere their head coach is from WSU. They actually looked really good against USC and I'm not so sure they'll get killed here.
 
lindetrain,

agree with your thoughts on Air Force...I'm not sure RB Aaron Brown will be healthy for this one either, which really limits the TCU offense...I like Air Force Senior QB Carney a lot too...
 
pags11 said:
lindetrain,

agree with your thoughts on Air Force...I'm not sure RB Aaron Brown will be healthy for this one either, which really limits the TCU offense...I like Air Force Senior QB Carney a lot too...
Click to expand...

I think Calhoun was a pretty good hire...was an OC for the Texans, and Wake had the ACC's top offense when he was OC there in '02.

This definitely reminds me of Cincy, as you've got a home dog playing a bigger school who's really just in a bad spot and has a struggling offense.
 
Toledo +21 (+115)

I love Matchbook.

Nothing I say can convince anyone this is a good play judging by each team's first two games. The fact of the matter is, I don't think Kansas can play at this level every game, and I can't help but think they go through the motions one of these days after playing so well to start. Toledo may not look great so far, but they actually beat KU last year, which has to count for something. My ratings indicate this should be a play, and I'm going to roll with it.
 
gotta like 3 TD's andd +15 cents there


On TCU-AF

they played in last game last year

38-14 TCU..with a bad offense

AFA had just 98 yards rushing...

most of their yardage came on 2 garbage TD's late in 4th as well

TCU defense is very good and they have actually passed for 200 a game so far..

just some early opinions
 
B.A.R.,

with all due respect, I'm not sure it's fair to compare this year's and last year's Air Force team vs. TCU...last year's team was very unmotivated due to the uncertain status of Fischer DeBerry...this year Calhoun seems to have them believing in themselves...I also think that lindetrain makes a good point about the emotional state of TCU...just the way they lost that game has to have them sick still...
 
I am with BAR on this one. Normally I would be concerned with a short week having to prepare for the veer option thingamajig that air force runs but tcu has played against it the two previous years. You cannot run on TCU .. no one can ... and all air force can do is run the ball , even with carney being a better thrower than your average air force qb. I think the fact that this is national tv may help tcu more than air force. A chance to showcase yourself again after a good but disappointing showing vs texas. Air Force is 2-0 but how have they gotten there ? They beat a d2 team in week 1 and defeated utah with the utes playing without half of their offense. Also , the utah run defense looked bad against the oregon state beavers as well as the falcons. After the cincy game , the jury is still out on how well the beavers can run the ball. I also like getting a team that played vs extremely high recruits one week and then the next week seeing a bunch of smaller and slower guys. The game speed will seem much slower for them. TCU offense is anemic so far to start the year which is a concern. The emotional state may be a concern .... but how could tcu offense be in a let down situation after 2 below average games ? This game is a mismatch on paper. of course i had the beavers in the cincy game last thursday too hehe.
 
I have questions about the state of the TCU players minds after the loss to Texas as well. My thinking was,

"Hey we have a good team, Texas struggled in the opener with Arky St, if we beat them we are on our way to the BCS."

They lost a hard fought battle and they face a team with some confidence who is playing at home.

I am now considering a 1st half play on AF because I think they can come out pumped and at least hang around early while the TCU players gradually get into the swing of things
 
Maryland +16.5 (-102)

West Virginia's defense is simply not strong enough for them to be laying this many on the road to a capable Terps team. You know Maryland has had this game circled on their calendar, and it being a Thursday night contest makes it that much bigger. I really like the playmakers they have at RB and WR, and I think they're going to have some success putting up points against WVU.
 
I already placed a bet with my buddy for +7 back this summer (pretty good at setting the line, huh?), so I'm not in a real hurry to bet it I guess you could say.

Honestly, I'm trying to figure out how Louisville covers 6.5. They are much worse and we are much better than I expected so far, so I can't really figure out why it's so high. I have it at 1.5.
 
Idaho +26

I love this one. The Vandals didn't look too bad at USC two weeks ago, and now are catching a ton of points against one of their biggest rivals. Their new HC was the DC at Washington State up until last year, and worked with Doba for quite some time...he definitely has the upper hand as he knows the team's strengths and weaknesses. They have run the ball with some success so far, with Deonte Jackson running for over 300 yards the first two games (99 vs. USC). Wazzu has been pretty sad on defense, and hasn't done much of anything stopping the run. I like them to score enough points to hang around and I don't think Doba runs it up on his old coaching buddy.
 
I thought the same thing on the BC line...and it still hasn't moved since when I got it??? I'm going to give Idaho a close look tonight, I must have missed it in my initial list of games to cap for the week. GL to ya this week
 
With you on toledo and nice insight on that Idaho matchup. once again , gl this week lindetrain
 
Alabama -3

We're all going to see how good the Tide will be and how the Hogs' glory days are behind them in this game.
 
Recap so far:

Toledo +21 (+115)
Maryland +16.5 (-102)
Idaho +26 (-110)
Boston College +7 (-110)
Air Force +8 (-102)
Alabama -3 (-110)

What I'm looking at:

Temple
Oregon
Ohio State
Central Florida
Indiana
Western Michigan
San Diego State
 
vegaskyle said:
Mind sharing your thoughts on UCF this week ,lindetrain ?

semi sandwich spot ?
Click to expand...

I just really like them. Simply put, I don't think Texas is 19 points better than UCF on the road. I just don't.

Add the fact that UCF played well in their opener, and Texas has only played one good half of football so far this year, and it makes it that much more appealing.

Why should Texas be that concerned about this game?
 
emet15 said:
Linde.....
Got a question to ask....
What do you think about a bet on Syracuse??
Click to expand...

Do you know if McNabb is going to start?

Seriously, you just can't bet on this team until they show some - hell, any - signs of improvement. You just can't.

I think Illinois is very similar to Washington, except with a better defense and more speed. Add that to the fact Syracuse upset them last year (they won't be taking this one lightly), and Illinois needs to win every game they can to get bowl eligible, and I see no way you bet the Orange.
 
Ok, thanks for the answer, and actually I think you have a big point there...
Ill put in a small bet just to see how things go...

By the way, I love your Boston College play.....
GL on these week man, all the effort on the "One day at a time" thing will at some point give you revenue......
you are just 2 wins away of a positive record....
 
lindetrain said:
Maryland +16.5 (-102)

West Virginia's defense is simply not strong enough for them to be laying this many on the road to a capable Terps team. You know Maryland has had this game circled on their calendar, and it being a Thursday night contest makes it that much bigger. I really like the playmakers they have at RB and WR, and I think they're going to have some success putting up points against WVU.
Click to expand...

honestly cannot see this MD is ranked in the bottom 25 in a lot of categories and wvu knows this game means everything to md. I like my line under 2 tds better but hopefully we can get a 14 point wvu vicroty for both of us.....honestly though i can see 52-17 just as much as 28-14 though
 
Central Florida +18.5 (-116)
Indiana -13.5 (-110)
Oregon -16.5 (-110)
Temple +29.5 (-110)

Overall the worst job I've done on getting the best price and line on these (other than Toledo). Figured I'd rather put up the extra 6 cents to get both 17 and 18 on Central Florida...out of money on MB so had to place the rest of them on 5Dimes.

Will probably add SDSU once the books put them at +28.5 (that's where it stands at Pinnacle)...
 
GL once again linde - like most of these additions.

I've also decided to switch to the WMU avatar in support of their outright win on Saturday.
 
San Diego State +28.5 (-110)
North Carolina -3 (-104)

Final card:

Toledo +21 (+115)
Idaho +26 (-110)
Boston College +7 (-110)
Alabama -3 (-110)
Western Michigan +20.5 (-101)
Central Florida +18.5 (-116)
Indiana -13.5 (-110)
Oregon -16.5 (-110)
Temple +29.5 (-110)
San Diego State +28.5 (-110)
North Carolina -3 (-104)
 
you might be in trouble. i kind of love your card , except for north carolina. my balls shriveled up a bit at prospect of betting temple again but that line did look a tad off.

good luck this week ... enjoy your threads each week and of course the preseason day at a times.
 
vegaskyle said:
you might be in trouble. i kind of love your card , except for north carolina. my balls shriveled up a bit at prospect of betting temple again but that line did look a tad off.

good luck this week ... enjoy your threads each week and of course the preseason day at a times.
Click to expand...

Had no intention of betting UNC, but sort of just felt that one out earlier on tonight. I envisioned what it would be like to have a UVA ticket, and I could already see it - me wanting to kill myself for betting a team who can't score and plays with absolutely no enthusiasm on the road.
 
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