Alimony NBA Thread 2021-2022...

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
Well, here we are... NBA season again.

That was quite an interesting year last year that many will never forget. Hopefully we have full normalcy back to the NBA season this year, and we should. As usual, this is a top heavy league but that doesn't mean we cannot make some money. We shall see. I had a rollercoaster season last year betting. Like, wild swings. That happens though and I knew I was going into uncertain situations at times but that is all part of it.

I wasn't a believer in Milwaukee and their atrocious defense all year. Even into the playoffs, I was not. They got a perfect first round matchup though and we know what happened with injuries vs New Jersey. No way they win that series if both teams were healthy but that is all part of the grind of the season. The Nets players maybe were not conditioned(cough, Harden) to endure a long postseason. With that being said, they then entered another dream matchup vs a Hawks team that is up and coming but not yet ready for primetime. With that being said, that is when they started to turn the corner a bit imo as far as all around play. They had stepped up the defense the series before but this was becoming a better 'team'. They showed that in the NBA Finals and when Giannis gutted out that Game 2, I earned so much newfound respect for the man. I finally 'cashed' in on this team in the deciding game pretty big so that was a perfect finish to the season with one of the greatest performances we'll ever see in a closeout situation. Congrats to the Bucks!

As far as this season... You'll see me with a lot more input on my 'Stons. The rebuild is starting to shape together nicely and this should be a fun team to watch. I expect many ups and downs... lot of growing pains but also some excitement down at Hot N Ready and a team that should stay in the 8-10 seed convo for quite awhile. I haven't even been there for a hoops game yet but plan on going to a few during the winter.

In the East, we obviously have the champs and then some uncertainty with the Nets and Sixers. This will obviously start to resolve itself in the next few months and we'll get a better idea of who is to be favored here in the conference. I know what I want to see happen, we shall see what comes to fruition. After that we have the Heat, Bulls and then a bunch of middling teams...including one I'll chat about in a few...

Out West, that collection of guys on the Lakers is going to be interesting. Things really come down to injuries in the spring and with an aging LeChina and brittle Davis you just never know. As far as this 2015 all-start team, eh...we'll see. I love Brodie and he brings something they need when LeBron is resting or sitting out. We'll see how the chemistry is when this squad is all together. Utah seems on the brink but that defense is not good at all. They need to be like a Milwaukee and flip the switch in May. They couldn't do that last year. The Warriors will be fun, but not a serious title contender. Dallas has Luka and parts but that is another defensive disaster. The Nuggets are stuck with Malone, need I say more? Clips are an afterthought... Blazers better start real well or I think Dame goes by deadline. That leaves Phoenix... the defending conference champs. I assume they will step back in the regular season but be ready for the playoffs. I honestly have no idea who wins this right now, at all. This should be wild.

Alright, I have veered away more and more from futures/rsw/etc last few years. I mean, I have gotten some nice value on Nuggets and Jazz bets in the past but in the NBA it is so hard to get teams like that to the point of even hedging. As far as RSW's, with all the resting and limited motivation... these have been tough. Reallly, only that GSW under 2 years ago was basically a win before the season even started. With that being said, there is one team that I wanted to concentrate on this year...

Your...Chicago Bulls.

First of all, I loved the trade for Nikola last year. He is a personal favorite of mine and he brings a lot to any team he is on. LaVine is a great player, bottom line. The additions via trade and free agency might not be the splashiest but they are good, solid players that should fit in on this team well. Lonzo, even though he is easy to rip on, is getting better and better each year. The kid works hard. We know what Demar will give you, that is consistent points. Caruso is a great bench fill as well. The thing with guys like Caruso and Lonzo...they play defense...which is a foreign concept in todays league. Williams and White have some injury issues but should be healthy here in the next month or so(White later). When looking at a RSW, we have to expect injuries...I like they have some depth to help in those situations. Obviously the keys here are the two all-star guys, Vucevic and LaVine. Remember, this is a free agency year for Zach as well... I think he has a great season and with less pressure to score all the time turns into a bona-fide recognized star. I just really like this team. The question will be the mesh of DeMar with LaVine but I think they will be okay there... they can also hide his defense a little bit.

This isn't a team of mega stars or prima donnas... they won't be taking rest days often, if at all. LaVine has never made the playoffs, and this is a contract year. They have a damn good big man and nice pieces to surround them. The East is nothing to write home about after the top 3-4 teams. A team like this should feast on the bottom feeders. Chemistry is important, obviously... and November is a grind but I see this team ascending all year and being a 5-7 seed when things are all said and done.

45-49 wins

Chicago RSW O 42.5 5 units
 
Seen a lot of people say DeMar and lavine cant work together, these people must not have watched the raptors because lowry was still primary ball handler those last few years when demar really figured out his midrange game, he wasnt a usage vacuum like harden was in houston.

It's actually kind of a similar situation in chicago to what he had in toronto when he was at his best, Nikola and jonas are similar, and he had 2 other guards around him in kyle and miles, now hes got lonzo and lavine. Hes not what he was but on this team hes gonna just need to be an efficient scorer.

Really like this team
 
Would play the team total over on the Bulls almost every game to start.

Gonna take awhile for the books to adjust.
 
Would play the team total over on the Bulls almost every game to start.

Gonna take awhile for the books to adjust.
You read my mind.

I'm on TT tomorrow once I get a number. Perfect matchup for them.

We'll see about Saturday.

Figuring 112/112.5

They should get near 120.
 
You read my mind.

I'm on TT tomorrow once I get a number. Perfect matchup for them.

We'll see about Saturday.

Figuring 112/112.5

They should get near 120.

Ya, should be solid. Got their 'team totals' hitting at a +60% clip this season if you blind bet every game.

Another team I'd be looking at playing along the same lines would be the Grizz.
 
Some 'Stons notes...

Cade is out to start the season. Detroit goes on a mini 3 game road trip after tonight's home opener and Weavers expectation is that he will return after that. The injury occurred early in training camp.

Bey and Hayes both had injuries as well during pre-season but they will be ready for tonight.

When the team is finally healthy, I'd expect the starting line-up to be the last two drafts first round picks + Jerami Grant. This is going to be a team that has some fun moments and also some low moments this season. I expect the defense to be a but below average for a bit, which I will try and take advantage of against certain teams.
 
Live - Atlanta o198 -113
1.25 units
I want to buy off this due to the deficit of the game. This is/was unexpected.

Seeing as it's not an independent wager, that is tougher and I do like to trust the process on these but the benches scare me for both.

Just noting.
 
I want to buy off this due to the deficit of the game. This is/was unexpected.

Seeing as it's not an independent wager, that is tougher and I do like to trust the process on these but the benches scare me for both.

Just noting.
The funny part is the buy off was 200.5 and we would have middled.

Either way, trust the process @HUNT .
 
Live - Golden State o233 +100
Full disclosure I had o 239/u249.5 here earlier in the game for a middle too. I was playing on the lull being done in this game but their was simply no rhthym in the last 16 minutes with fouls and stoppages. Curry was great, but they had trouble at times when he was off the floor and when the Clips made some switches.
 
The usual awful posting start...

I'll update all that after tonight...

Overall, have played 21 plays so far (2 pregame, 1 halftime middle attempt and 18 live)....

Noticing a few things and one is the low scoring 4th quarters. I love finding a good under late and perhaps a middle opportunity and have only played those how I should once (OKC and Philly last night). I let myself get burnt to the negative by not going full middle in a Kings-Warriors game and also another one.

Anyways, gonna track tonight with a full night off and learn about some teams as well. Excited for it and lets see what happens.

And, Lets Go Bulls!
 
So, left with 93 for the 2h...

Pace is incredible in this one... would expect it to slow in the 4th but I don't think I'll even try for a middle with what should be a pretty sure-fire live over. We'll see...

Shot attempts went 25-25 in first to 24-24 in 2nd...

Very low FT game so far, that will change a bit as well...

Turning attention elsewhere now...
 
Generally, I should push in more on this final available number in Brooklyn but the Bullets cannot throw the ball in the ocean whatsoever. Gonna pass this time, may regret.
 
Easy one in Charlotte...

With how things were going in TOR, deciding to buy out and then of course Raps pressure and get hoops...happens but no biggie...

Need Bulls to hang on...

Brooklyn game goes 35.5 under the total tonight...

Hopefully keep heating up in Minneapolis...
 
The Bulls are a HOT mess vs pressure.

Note that.
Billy D calling that TO to take it side out...they are not good with that inbounding situation at half court, 1st dribble back into the trap, then airmail the 2nd time against pressure. They looked clueless.

So much easier to pass from the baseline when you're up two possessions
 
The plan with that was to get back to the 209.5 or higher level and take under for the original bet to basically reset my total.

I had 211 and 210.5 and could not get it submitted... I got quick fingers too... so...if I get it again I go under for the original anything over 209.5
 
Missed FT, bummer.

That game just could never keep any momentum at all. The pace was seemingly there in 1h, hence why I played it early.

Oh well, see if anything pops later...started promising tonight but died in Minny.
 
Found my thread, hehe.

Posted these in discussion thread the other day but two NBA Futures...


Phoenix +800
Miami +1400



I've said that there are 5-6 NBA teams that can win the championship this season and I will stick with that. I cannot even think of a blockbuster trade that would elevate another team(no, the Lakers simply don't have it fellas). Maybe the Mavs with a huge trade but I doubt it...

Anyways...

Your champ comes out of this group...

Brooklyn
Milwaukee
Miami
Phoenix
Golden State
Utah


That group could be losing Utah with their play as of late. The defense is always a concern and now chemistry might be again, as well.

Miami has barely played with a full line-up as of yet and very well could be the 1 seed shortly with the Chicago injuries. I am not a huge fan of an offense like this in the playoffs but at full strength they will look better than last years edition, more bubble-esque.

Phoenix was there last year, and is a bit better this year and more hardened. Now, do I think these are the favorites? No. But, I am getting some okay prices here so I figure this is worth a shot.
 
I think Memphis a year or 2 away but I actually think they have better chance than Utah. The only team I would add/ask bout is you don’t think Philly could conceivably do something w Simmons that would give them a chance in the east? Embid seems pretty healthy so far this year and he a bad boy, just freaking get him a all star that works and I’d think they could challenge.
 
Gs and phx really feel like only 2 that could come out the west to me so +800 def seems like pretty good price.
 
I think Memphis a year or 2 away but I actually think they have better chance than Utah. The only team I would add/ask bout is you don’t think Philly could conceivably do something w Simmons that would give them a chance in the east? Embid seems pretty healthy so far this year and he a bad boy, just freaking get him a all star that works and I’d think they could challenge.
I love Mempis and they are on the rise...Bane has been so good...Ja is Ja...

They need another piece and more than anything, some playoff hardening,,,

I was gonna make my addendum in the post about the Sixers... the answer is NO. Maybe if they had run at Dame but he is hurt and that isn't happening. The thing with JoJo is he has looked better recently but seemed a bit fragile earlier in the year. I love Curry, and always a Tobias fan but he's due to be traded. Doc isn't it as a coach either. Maybe one playoff series for them.
 
I love Mempis and they are on the rise...Bane has been so good...Ja is Ja...

They need another piece and more than anything, some playoff hardening,,,

I was gonna make my addendum in the post about the Sixers... the answer is NO. Maybe if they had run at Dame but he is hurt and that isn't happening. The thing with JoJo is he has looked better recently but seemed a bit fragile earlier in the year. I love Curry, and always a Tobias fan but he's due to be traded. Doc isn't it as a coach either. Maybe one playoff series for them.

I woulda never bet griz last night if I knew Bane wasn’t playing, that came out of nowhere didnt it? I didn’t see him on injury report. Already missing brooks not having bane 2 of their 4 best scorers. I think they very capable of scaring one the big dogs but I agree they still a piece/year away.
 
I love Mempis and they are on the rise...Bane has been so good...Ja is Ja...

They need another piece and more than anything, some playoff hardening,,,

I was gonna make my addendum in the post about the Sixers... the answer is NO. Maybe if they had run at Dame but he is hurt and that isn't happening. The thing with JoJo is he has looked better recently but seemed a bit fragile earlier in the year. I love Curry, and always a Tobias fan but he's due to be traded. Doc isn't it as a coach either. Maybe one playoff series for them.

I like curry, green just a pro shooter, Maxey has been better than I thought he be out of college, I thought he played incredibly well when they were going thru the covid issues earlier on, he hardly turns it over at all and shocking to me is hitting 40% from 3! Maybe that why I think if they could just get some kind of quality all star wing or pf I would give them a shot in east, assuming Jojo healthy and of course that always a huge IF!
 
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