Alexgurv's Week 1 Picks

U

~Utah

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
I'm officially starting school tomorrow (today whatever). Been taking a few classes this last week, but the shit gets crackin tomorrow, so I decided I should finally make some picks.

NCAAF 2007 128-104-6 +16.30 units (55.17%)

To be honest I had a pretty shitty year last year even though I turned a profit on the season, but its only because I went on a couple week run at the end of the season and hit a +2300 dog.

Not as experienced as you guys but still gonna posting my picks and smallish write ups for every pick

Things I don't do..

Bet 20 or more point favorites, don't like it, go figure
Bet Pitt, ill probably do it twice this year, against South Florida, or/and against WVU, and possibly, against Rutgers but I doubt, reason why is because they give me enough stress, having money on them doesn't help the situation. I have a feeling shit wont be very different this year (with the stress). I go to all Pitt home games also.
Bet totals, don't do it for any sports.

Thats about it...here are my leans for week 1, make some picks tomorrow...GL This season. I use bookmaker also. Ill be updating this with my final picks rather then leans


Italics = lean
bold blue = finals picks

Thursday August 28 2008

Oregon St -3 to win 1 unit - L
South Carolina -14 to win 1 unit - W
Friday August 29 2008

Army +7 to win 1 unit - L

Saturday August 30 2008

Michigan -3.5 to win 1 unit - L
Ohio +11 to win 1 unit - W
Idaho +27 to win 1 unit - L
Cal -4.5 to win 1 unit - W
Hawaii +34 to win 1 unit - L
V. Tech -9.5 to win 1 unit - L
Mizzu -9 to win 1 unit - W
Clemson -4.5 to win 1 unit - L
N. Illinois +9.5 to win 1 unit - W

Sunday August 31 2008

Louisville -3.5 to win 1 unit - L
CSU +10.5 to win 1 unit - L

Monday September 1 2008

Tennessee -7.5 to win 1 unit
Rutgers -5 to win 1 unit
 
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vegaskyle said:
gl dude .. even if you hate white people.

like temple as well.

why clemson ?
Click to expand...

Those are just leans but ill probably take Clemson, I think Alabama will be good this year but I think Clemson could be great, ill explain more sometime this week.

Not really sold on Temple for degenerate Friday, the only reason I even looked at it is because its the only thing Friday, might just lay off, any really solid info that would put me over the edge?
 
With ya on the Vols, against you on none. I don't have a vested interest, but curious about Ohio plus pts. Good luck this season Gurv, and keep that avatar, the Jeezy snowman is fresh.
 

Oregon St -3 to win 1 unit

Totally flip flopped on this pick, thought I would take Stanford, but looking at more of the numbers from last year, they were a spectacular 2-4 at home ATSm and 2-6 overall at home. Stanford should be a little bit better this year but I dont think we will see it in the first week.

Home openers

2007 vs UCLA - L (45-17)
2006 vs Navy - L (9-37)
2005 vs UC Davis - L (17-20)


So theyve basically sucked in the opener . While Oregon St isnt GREAT on the road but they are certainly decent. A lot of high expecatations this year, this spread should be higer...thats what worries me, but I think they win
 
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gl alex im on a couple of your leans but doesnt it concern you how different vandy looks on offense compared to how strong miami looks on defense? im on miami but i got it at 1.5, so maybe we'll both cash...on the under as well and thinkin a real dull ineffective game offensively...17-14 a real possibility imo...otherwise gl bud
 
broadwayjoe said:
gl alex im on a couple of your leans but doesnt it concern you how different vandy looks on offense compared to how strong miami looks on defense? im on miami but i got it at 1.5, so maybe we'll both cash...on the under as well and thinkin a real dull ineffective game offensively...17-14 a real possibility imo...otherwise gl bud
Click to expand...

That stats are misleading because the SEC and MAC are completely diffrent leagues...Vandy averaged 34 points a game against non SEC opponents and Miami was giving up 37 points a game against non MAC opponents. This seems like a game which a lot of people jump on Miami because Vandy kind of sucked, but no matter which way you looked at it, Miami had 1 more win then Vandy in a much weaker conference, I think Vandy wins, but if they lose 17-14 thats fine with me too. GL Broadway

GL - marlo
GL - Bar
GL - dwight
 
Army +7 to win 1 unit

Another game I totally flip flopped in. Armys one of the few good things about them is they only gave up 180 yards a game last year in the pass. They are very vulnerable against the run, but Temple has little running game, they are more of a passing team. Army's staduim isn't big but the crowd is always rowdy. I also think that Army really struggled on offense last year, they only had 80 yards per game on the ground and 180 in the air. I can see the air figure staying the same, but the new option offense they will be running will deffinatly improve Army's running totals and possible get some more offense.

Michigan -3.5 to win 1 unit

This is probably the sucker bet of the year, and there is really no stats you can use from last years michigan team to back this up because the team is basically brand new. But I know Rich Rodriguez is without question one of the best coaches in the game. I see the guy every year because I try to go to every Pitt-WVU game and he is a great coach. His home opener, I just dont see how Michigan doesnt play leaps and bounds above Utah. I could be way off though lol. Silly reasoning, but im doin it
 
Not debating the play on Army but jsut wanted to point out that the passing defense stats for Army fall into the deceiving category , Alex.

Here are the Army halftime scores. To the right of each halftime score where army is within single digits of the lead i put the total pass yards for that game. Army trailed in every game except temple at halftime.

navy 24 -3
tulsa 28 -24 425 yards passing/season avg 371
rutgers 24-6
air force 17-10 164 yards passing/season avg 120
gtech 13 - 7 218 yards passing / season avg 186
cnich 33-16
tulane 10-7 154 yards passing/ season avg 195 army won
temple 21-21 359 yards passing/season avg 208 army won
bcollege 16-7 371 yards passing/season avg 324
wake forest 21-7
akron 19-7

In other words , teams quit throwing by halftime in a lot of army games and in the games where it was not a run it up situation Army pass defense numbers were more reflective of a full game of defense.

Just putting that number into perspective.

gl this year
 
mogo - GL this year also

VK/ETG - One way I also look at it is dont you think the coaching change and the complete flip flop of offense into the option offense which runs more time off the clock and more then likely because Temple will have trouble stopping it, give them more possession time and possibly make this a close game? Also Temples QB wasnt exactly great last year, I knew he got a lot of yards, but he also just got 2 TD's and 2 Int's in the game. He ended with I believe 12 TD's and 10 Int's. I dont deny that Temples offense might put up numbers, but not as good as last year and Army will be in the game if not win it. This is what makes me hesitate. Im not completely locked into this game to be honest, willing to change the pick because Temple was my initial lean.

Hile - still not sure about the play, but all in I love the Volunteers this year so I might jump on it sometime tonight after you kick my ass
 
AlexGurv1987 said:
Vandy +4 to win 1 unit

This is an interesting game and I think a lot of people are going with miami. But I don't really see why, this team is predicted to be one of the worst teams in the MAC. They have a weak home field crowd, and I could see this being one of those games were its sort of like "this is where the MAC proves they can beat a BCS team". They were 2-4 last year at home while Vandy was a decent 2-2 on the road. I think Vandy probably wins this game out right and possibly in a blowout.



That stats are misleading because the SEC and MAC are completely diffrent leagues...Vandy averaged 34 points a game against non SEC opponents and Miami was giving up 37 points a game against non MAC opponents. This seems like a game which a lot of people jump on Miami because Vandy kind of sucked, but no matter which way you looked at it, Miami had 1 more win then Vandy in a much weaker conference, I think Vandy wins, but if they lose 17-14 thats fine with me too. GL Broadway

GL - marlo
GL - Bar
GL - dwight
Click to expand...

hey alex....don't take it the wrong way or anything because i'm not trying to change your mind, but just trying to make sure you're looking at the right information and playing some devil's advocate...

first of all, miami is not predicted to finish one of the worst teams in the MAC by anyone that i've read, in fact they are the favorites of many including myself to return to the MAC championship...they return nearly all of a defense that ranked 25 against the pass with a solid secondary and ability to rush the passer along with 3 returning lbs.

they finished the regular season with a crushing loss to ohio that kept them out of a bowl game...and by crushing, i mean crushing. that is a game they led 17-7 at the half. radabaugh threw 2 picks that led to ohio tds on the first two possessions. miami stalled on FIVE drives in that game that led to fgs...yes, five fgs and they went on to lose the game. they outgained ohio by 190 yards and lost. that was the difference between a winning season bowl game and a losing season...which leads to an enormous amount of hunger in week 1 of the following season.

they have some definite weaknesses, yes, but their qb with ability comes back and should have at least a little more time behind an oline that was pretty shitty last year. they've been working on quicker passes so that he can get the ball out quicker. this will help him with his mistakes (many of which were forced by the oline) which is another area of concern. he's reportedly had a good camp though, he's talented, and i think the most improved unit on this team will be his receivers, most of which were freshmen last year. rb and oline is still going to be vulnerable, but i think they can cover it up with their passing game and very good defense. fact is, they definitely won't be one of the worst teams in the MAC this year, and i think they will be much improved overall. vandy may win this game, but i am extremely confident it won't be a blowout...at least on the vandy side...

as far as misleading stats, yes...two very different leagues...BUT you compared two very different out of conference schedules in your next thought....

first of all, i came up with different numbers than you did (let me know if i'm mistaken here):

vandy out of conf scoring:

richmond 41
eastern michigan 30
miami oh 24
wake 17

=28 ppg

miami out of conf defense = i did get 34 ppg (not 37, again let me know if i'm wrong) but against minn (IN DOUBLE OT), cinci and colorado (which would both frankly kick the shit out of both of these teams and did just that to miami), vandy (which we'll get to later), and cuse (who they beat in a game that i think will be similar to this one 17-14)

now you pointed out a couple of times the difference in leagues, then you compare out of conference schedules which are obviously lopsided...richmond and eastern michigan??? i would hope they'd score on those two teams...

not only that, but this was last year's vandy's offense...this year it's not even close to the offense it was imo. they lose their ENTIRE line...whenever that happens it is a negative thing, especially in week 1, and especially when you had a tackle go that was taken in the first round in the draft. the team also lost a considerable amount on defense. the players that do return cannot be nearly as hungry as miami is...last year was their year to do something imo...coming into last year vandy had i believe 18 returning starters and had lost FOUR sec games by a td or less...they had a weak out of conf schedule and last year was supposed to be the year they got it done. things obviously didn't go as planned, and now the most significant returning players are at qb (2 of em who both played pretty inconsistent last year), and in the secondary. In addition to the oline and the pairs of lbs and dts they lose, they also lose their top receiver and top rb...basically it is a very different team this year and an inferior one. one advantage they do have is that they should be able to get to radabaugh and they have a pretty good secondary even if they don't every play...which is why i'm also on the under because i believe the same is true when vandy is on offense.

now let's take a look at last year's game...

24-13. ok. so with all the above, i feel pretty confident that vandy does not get to 24. a pretty close game at vandy's place. you flip the homefield, which i disagree that you state homefield doesn't matter in this game because of what you call a weak home crowd, but that's obviously opinionated and debatable on both ends so we'll leave that out of this...

midway through the 3rd quarter with vandy having undoubtedly a better offense than they have this year, and miami having undoubtedly a better defense THIS year than last, miami led 13-10 on the road. the game came down to exactly one thing....earl bennett going off and being unstoppable. he had 215 yard of receiving that game on 8 catches. vandy does not return earl bennett. also in that game, adams who took over during the year as the starter, got injured allowing the better passer nickson to come in and miami was not preparing for him. so miami has the confidence they need here on both sides of the ball, especially being at home, and they won't see anything that they haven't seen before or weren't expecting. the only thing they will see is a lot less talent across from them as they did last year.

so those are the reasons that i have for making my miami and my under wagers on this game...and as far as a lot of people jumping on miami here, i must be looking at something different there too, because i'm actually seeing some reverse line movement here with up to 62% on vandy on some sites (very "public" for a dog) and the line moving nearly a fg the other way. and this makes logical sense, because i think a lot of people have that sec vs mac stigma attached to their thought processes....

just my .02 alex...as always take with a grain of salt...gl on the rest of your card bud
 
well alex, after reading through a few of your temple thoughts it seems as though you are pretty low on the mac this year, which i am not and i see them as much improved, so i think we may have several disagreements throughout the year hahhahaha...
 
After thinking about it more probably just gonna make this a NO play, looked more into, looks like I still have to get caught up to you guys with capping games, still sticking with the Army pick though, I guess im just really relying on the option offense to make that one a winner

but decided to add....

South Carolina -14 to win 1 unit

Instead. NC State has barely any starters coming back to this team, 2nd fewest in the ACC while South Carolina is a lot more experienced of a team. Even last year, NC State had trouble scoring on the road, only breaking 20 points once . Thing s that worry me is things like last years 28-14 win against Louisiana Lafayette. Hopefully it wont be a game .like that but the team is a lot more experienced this year
 
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Very informative thread after a bit from everyone...

Michigan -3.5 to win 1 unit

This is probably the sucker bet of the year, and there is really no stats you can use from last years michigan team to back this up because the team is basically brand new. But I know Rich Rodriguez is without question one of the best coaches in the game. I see the guy every year because I try to go to every Pitt-WVU game and he is a great coach. His home opener, I just dont see how Michigan doesnt play leaps and bounds above Utah. I could be way off though lol. Silly reasoning, but im doin it
Click to expand...
Would rather have seen you grab this at a flat three..but thats okay...if anyone hre wants to play Blue the number will get better and better...

Alex, Michigan was a top ten defense last year outside the first two games. They really were better than I thought they could be last year. Even the OSU game, it ook awhile before Beanie finally wore them down. I think they will limit Utah's offense considerably. It's all about the offense. I expect some crazy plays and a lot of short stuff in open space. Team speed we have never seen in Acey-Duecy to tell you the truth. Exciting game. One key factor is I think this will be one of the best UM special teams in years. Lloyd didn't concentarte on that enough.<!-- / message -->
 
B.A.R. said:
Very informative thread after a bit from everyone...



Would rather have seen you grab this at a flat three..but thats okay...if anyone hre wants to play Blue the number will get better and better...

<!-- / message --> Alex, Michigan was a top ten defense last year outside the first two games. They really were better than I thought they could be last year. Even the OSU game, it ook awhile before Beanie finally wore them down. I think they will limit Utah's offense considerably. It's all about the offense. I expect some crazy plays and a lot of short stuff in open space. Team speed we have never seen in Acey-Duecy to tell you the truth. Exciting game. One key factor is I think this will be one of the best UM special teams in years. Lloyd didn't concentarte on that enough.
Click to expand...

IMO Michigan should have won that game if it wasnt for Lloyd, or at least had a better chance, I remember thinking why the fuck did he keep Henne in that whole game. I understand that he was a senior and it was his last game against OSU, but for fucks sake, the guy wasnt doing anything. Anyway its not like Rodriguez is starting with a ass backwards team, good recruits, good defense as you said. Rodriguez should have a good year, I honestly think in a few years you are looking at a national championship with this guy. He had a lot less to work with at WVU and still built an AMAZING team IMO, I was always amazed at how unstoppable he could make an offense (well give or take a game or two :) ) With the advantages of being at Michigan, and the facilities, he will build something great there. Only problem I think you have is the big game against OSU. Whenever WVU needed to beat Pitt to get somewhere great (like last year), he fucked it up
 
gl gurv:cheers:

looks like your against the whole board on ohio, not that thats a bad thing or anything, but at least youve got some cajones

(and I know you only took UM so bar and huntdog would consider you for modship- your secret plans/hidden motives = im one step ahead of em bro:smiley_acbe:)
 
(and I know you only took UM so bar and huntdog would consider you for modship- your secret plans/hidden motives = im one step ahead of em bro:smiley_acbe:)
Click to expand...


the dicksucking begins...

next he will start having a yanks avatar and be a badger fan:tiphat:<!-- / message -->
 
Ohio +11 to win 1 unit

I guess I'm against the whole board on this one but I feel pretty good about it. Not sure why Wyoming is such a huge pick here. I actually took them last year against VA +3 I believe and I actually bet them a bunch of times after that based off that game and didn't get far. The defense on this team is decent for sure, but the offense is lacking and this is where my problem is. The defense is returning 6 players and the offense is returning 8 starting players. They started out pretty well last year going 4-1 and you would think they were a lock to get into the post season after that but they only won one game after that! They went 0-3-1 ATS last year at home as favorites and actually only went 1-4-1 overall ATS and that one being the Virginia game. I don't see this team being very different this year. There have been reports that the offense is struggling to score against the starting defense. I don't have any questions about the defense, but the offense is a ? They weren't very good on the O-line last year. This is a problem when the best of your team is the running game.

I realize that Ohio got blown up for running yards last year, but the point is Wyoming got lucky to even win the game. Ohio doesn't have the greatest D, but the fact that Wyoming is lacking on O helps that. They are an average team on the road, going 1-1-1 ATS on the road with a lot of veteran talent and coaching coming back.

Bottom line : Ohio loses this game, but i have a lot of trouble seeing Wyoming winning this by a big margin. I know most will disagree...but we will see.

Wyoming at home last year:

vs Virginia 23-3 +3 - W Overall W ATS
vs Utah St 32-18 (worst team in D-1?) -25 W Overall L ATS
vs TCU 24-21 -3 W Overall P ATS
vs New Mexico 3-20 -4 L Overall L ATS
vs UNLV 29-24 -10 W Overall L ATS
vs BYU 10-35 +10 L Overall L ATS

Basically the struggled ATS at home.



V. Tech -9.5 to win 1 unit

Was leaning towards Eastern Carolina on this game before but the suspension of ECU's starting QB for the game recently announced kind of switched me over. Glennon was also announced to start the game for V. Tech and will probably be there starter all year. V. Tech had some trouble with these guys last year but thats because I think of mostly QB inexperience last year. In the last 12 years V. Tech is 11-1 n opening games with the one loss being to the #1 team in the country at the time USC. They usually start out well because they usually have a weaker schedule and kind of dwindle away towards the end of the season and lose their bowl games. I fully expect with Glennon being a lot more experienced then he was last year, he should have a much better year. Ore was dismissed but I could see the team being better in the running game anyway. The defense is diminished but defense and special teams are Beamers specialty, I expect them to be very good , especially with Foster still there coaching them.

Clemson -4.5 to win 1 unit

I love this game. Clemson has the potential to be the best team in the ACC this year. The game is on a neutral site in Atlanta, not sure which way the crowd will go on this one, could be 50/50. Clemson possibly has the best RB duo in the country, the offensive line is less experienced, but other then that they are returning the whole offense. Harper is one of the most efficient QB's in the league. The defense is returning 8 and the d-line should be solid as ever this year and they have a very experienced secondary. That being said will John Parker Wilson really improve that much this year? The team should improve but I can see him struggling in the beginning of the season with a new offensive coordinator. This will be a close game, and a good game, but in the end, I just think Clemson has more talent with Spiller and Harper leading this team.
 
GL man i'm leaning South Carolina... Tough to lay the two td's though b/c i'm definitely on the under.
 
Cal -4.5 to win 1 unit

Both of these teams should be pretty good this season but my edge goes to Cal because of the home field. One thing that Tedford knows is QB and he has decided to start Riley over last years starter Longshore. Riley showed glimpses of great talent last year against Oregon St especially leading them down the field to a possible game winning TD or at least a game tieng FG. Unfortunately he made a freshman mistake and I believe he scrambled with no timeouts rather then throwing the ball away and the clock ran out. I don't think anything like that will happen this year. He will be significantly improved this season. RB's are also never a problem with Tedford, this year especially, Best might be one of the fastest guys in the country and he could be one of the best by seasons end. Offensive and defensive lines are all back, and this defense will be spectacular. IMO Cal could be one of these best teams in the country this year. I also think Michigan St. will be good, but they don't have nearly the same amount of talent as Cal does. Michigan St hasn't lost an season opening game since 2004, but thats because they've gone up against teams like UAB, Bowling Green, Idaho, Eastern Michigan, Kent St. Cal is slightly better then that, should be a good game, but Cal comes out victorious.

Idaho +27 to win 1 unit

This might be a crazy pick, considering Idaho just won one game all year last year, but the last 3 years, Idaho has opened up against a BCS opponent, and they have covered every year. Last year lost by 28 to USC, 2 years ago lost by 10 to MSU, and 3 years ago lost to Washington St by 12. Not saying Idaho is gonna win or anything, but I can see them keeping it relatively surprisingly close. Same thing with Arizona, they don't exactly blow bitches out. Non-BCS games...

2007
@ BYU (-3) - won by 13
vs Northern Arizona (NL) - won by 21
vs New Mexico (-10) - won by 2

2006
vs BYU (-6) - won by 3
vs Stephen F Austin (NL) - won by 18

and it goes on like that, my main emphasis is on the games not lined. The BYU games were expected to be close, by N. Arizona and S.F. Austin were not.

Mizzu -9 to win 1 unit

In my humbled opinion, Illinois just isn't very good, They won be nearly as good as they were last year without Mendenhall and I cant say I have ever been a believe in the Juice/Zook combo. Illinois has also lost 3 straight in St. Louis and Mizzu is just as talented as last year, if not even better. Daniels only got better towards the end of the year, they lost a lot with Temple but Washington is expected to equal his production and Maclin will have an even bigger role in the offense. Mizzu has now won 6 straight season openers

Hawaii +34 to win 1 unit

God damn it I hate tailing but I'm gonna do it here. Tailing Hawaiiguy and VK here:cheers:
 
GL JOB
GL single
GL spanish


feeling sick so gonna keep this short..

Louisville -3.5 to win 1 unit

Kentucky lost their whole entire offense , they return a good defense but I think Louisville should have a much better season then last year. Louiseville wins by double digits

Colorado St +10.5 to win 1 unit

This game is always close

Rutgers -5 to win 1 unit

Fresno St always tries to schedule BCS teams early in the season. Played Oregon and Texas A and m last year...lost. Oregon, Washington, LSU the year before...lost. a lot of you guys are taking a cross country trip and home field advantage for Rutgers where they usually perform really well for granted. This is gonna be their first trip east of the Mississippi since 2006 when they went to LSU and got crushed.

Tennessee -7.5 to win 1 unit

This line seems almost too good to be true. And if this was someone somewhat decent id probably take the other team....Tennessee hasnt won a road opener since 2004. But UCLA has literally nothing, the o-line has no experience...and I like the Volunteers to win the SEC...gotta go with them even though the line is funny
 
1-2 to start the season...but tommorow is the big day.

Feel like shit and im really sick, but hoping to make it out to the Pitt game tommorow, goodnight everyone
 
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