AlexGurv Week Two NCAAF Picks

[~Utah]

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 323pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=431 border=0 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 323pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 15762" width=431><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD class=xl24 style="BORDER-RIGHT: #f0f0f0; BORDER-TOP: #f0f0f0; BORDER-LEFT: #f0f0f0; WIDTH: 323pt; BORDER-BOTTOM: #f0f0f0; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent" width=431 height=17>College Football 2008-2009 Overall 6-10 -5.00 units</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Rough week in the first one, but that usually happens to me in the first week for whatever reason.

A few thoughts

- Pitt really sucks, I think Buffalo might beat them but im not sure, ill be at the game this weekend
- The Big East is terrible, they didnt beat any of the division 1 teams they played, the coaching style is disgraceful, Rutgers should have won, Pitt should have won. Most of the teams performed really poorly on offense
- ACC is pretty bad, not sure if they are worse then the Big East buts its close
- I had no "bad beats" this week, even though I felt like Rutgers should have been up 30-0 at the half, but I guess thats not really a bad beat, just bad coaching
- I got lucky with my UCLA pick tonight (switched it to UCLA just before gametime), I dont think they will be very good this year even though they won tonight, they won because of bad coaching on the Tennessee side

leans = italics
bold blue = final plays

Thursday, September 4th

Vanderbilt +10 to win 1 unit - W

Friday, September 5th

Ball St -7 to win 1 unit - W

Saturday September 6th

Syracuse -4 to win 1 unit - L
G. Tech +7 to win 1 unit - W
Bowling Green -6 to win 1 unit- L
Miami +21.5 to win 1 unit L
Nevada +10.5 to win 1 unit - L
Oregon State University +16.5 to win 1 unit- L
Texas A and M -2 to win 1 unit - W
Middle Tenn St +12.5 to win 1 unit - W
Stanford +14 to win 1 unit - L
2H Stanford +7 to win 1 unit - L

 

[RetroVK]

also like miamifl and georgia tech.

gl this week alex

 

[Schrute]

Love GT, Texas Tech and PSU

If ECU gets to 10 then I'm on it. I may be on it ML anyways

 

[~Utah]

GL VK :cheers:
GL Dwight :cheers:

Vanderbilt +10 to win 1 unit

Smelley is starting this week, some may argue that he played a lot better then Beecher did, and he did in fact play a lot better, but his numbers maybe a little bit off. He came in the 4th qaurter, the game was alright at hand, the offensive line had started playing better, the running game was picking up and the NC State defense started realizing their offense wasnt gonna score any points. They won 34-0, but they didnt play that well, and that score is very misleading and it looks like they played a great game. NC State's QB got knocked out early in the game, putting in your backup QB automatically fucks you. South Carolina's defense looked great, but was it against a team that has any offense whatsoever

Vanderbilt nearly got outgained on offensive yards wise, but they certainly didnt play poorly, the defense played very well to a certain extent. They picked off 3 balls, they held the Miami offense, who I was told last week was a front runner in the MAC, to a mere 27% in 3rd down efficiancy, they gave up 96 rushing yards, and the QB somehow got 250 passing yards, but he only went 19-46.

The offense also played well and this is the clincher for me, the QB did what he had too and only threw 9/16 passes for 91 yards but the guy ran for 166 yards and 2 TD's also. Overall the running game was great, and it went for 50-270. This is where my clincher for Vandy comes in, Andre Brown, with all of NC State's shittiness still managed to get 101 yards rushing in the game last week, that's 1/4 of what he got last season.

Checking out how they did last season against the rush, it wasnt pretty, and Vandy is a running team, with a moblie QB, and a spread offense

vs Clemson (L) 46-214 4.7 yards per rush - not a mobile QB
vs Florida (L) 48-233 4.9 yards per game - Tebow is obviously a mobile QB ran for 120 yards in the game and 5 Td's
@ Arkansas (L) 58-541 9.3 yards per game - This is the game Nutt didnt even bother putting a QB in, Mcfadden got the direct snap everytime and ran for 323 yards and Jones got a few handes off for 163 and 3 TD's
vs Vandy (L) 47-146 47-147 3.1 yards per game - The QB, Adams ran for 83 yards
@ UNC - (W) 36-113 - Not a running QB, and not even a running team
vs Kentucky - (W) 38-157 - Ill give them credit here, they held Woodson to negative -49 yards, but the rest of the team ran for 200 yards
vs Miss St (W) 42-140 - Played well against them
@ LSU (L) 50-290
vs Georgia (W) - did well
vs South Carolina State (W) - hope they did well
vs UL Lafeyate (W) - 47-250 - got crushed, ULL also has a spread offense with a mobile QB, the QB ran for 131 yards.

My point is that they cant stop a mobile QB to save their life, and that is exaclty what Chris Nickson and this offense is based on. This defense has 10 players coming back, the line has improved, but not by a ton, its mostly the same players. In fact looking back to 2005 they have never been able to stop a mobile QB, ever. I dont know if Vanderbilt neccasarily wins, but this will certaintly be a problem.

Speaking of nothing really changes, Smelley had a bad game against Vandy last year, who is to say this changes. SC rushed for 26 yards, they went 1-12 in 3rd down conversions, and they had 4 turnovers.

There might be a fun argument, that Nickson actually played against SC in 2005 and got crushed for 2 INT's, went 4-15, and threw 2 picks. Well my argument against that is, he still had 70 yards rushing. The coach was qouted as saying this past week, if they had to throw it more, they would have (against Miami). Thats exactly the same type of thing I see in this game. Nickson ended up having to throw a lot because they were down 17-3 at one point. Wont happen this time, Vandy's defense has improved since 2 years ago.

I know most will disagree (what ive seen early on). But hopefully this is a decent writeup explaining my reasoning.

 

[~Utah]

Ball St -7 to win 1 unit

Changed my mind on this one. Navy outrushed Ball State by 230 yards last year and still lost. They are going to without question outrush them again, but they lost a lot of key players from last year and they lost Paul Johnson. Didnt realize how much they lost when it comes to running the ball last year.

 

[~Utah]

Read this today and nearly puked

Pitt's AD supports Wannstedst

<TABLE border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top>By Kevin Gorman
TRIBUNE-REVIEW
Tuesday, September 2, 2008

<SCRIPT src="http://d.yimg.com/ds/badge.js" ____yb="1" badgetype="small" showbranding="0">pittsburgh_tribu:http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/s_585942.html</SCRIPT>Buzz up!
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<SCRIPT type=text/javascript> function GetThis(T, C, U, L) { var targetUrl = 'http://www.myspace.com/Modules/PostTo/Pages/?' + 't=' + encodeURIComponent(T) + '&c=' + encodeURIComponent(C) + '&u=' + encodeURIComponent(U) + '&l=' + L; window.open(targetUrl); } </SCRIPT>

Pitt athletic director Steve Pederson offered a show of support Monday for Dave Wannstedt, taking pressure off the Pitt coach after Saturday's 27-17 season-opening loss to Bowling Green.
The Panthers were 13 1/2-point favorites.
"In these situations, nobody's more disappointed than Dave and our team at the results of the game," Pederson said. "But I also know there isn't any group that's going to work harder to get us back on track than Dave and his coaches and the team. For Dave, this isn't really a job, this is a passion. He's dedicated to building a winning program here and he has all of our support as he works at that."

story continues below

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Wannstedt is 16-20 in his fourth season at Pitt but has lost 13 of his past 18 games. Expectations were high for the Panthers after the last season's upset finale at West Virginia and a subsequent preseason No. 25 Associated Press ranking.
Pederson said before the season that he expected Pitt to be nationally ranked on a regular basis, but he declined yesterday to mandate a victory total for Wannstedt this season.
"I don't want to put anything definitive on a coach. I don't believe in that," Pederson said. "We just want to focus on beating Buffalo Saturday night. Hopefully, we can get that done."
The Panthers drew 45,063 to the opener, although many left early. Pederson said that it's too early to give up on the season -- or on Wannstedt.
"It's the first game, but I think a lot of people had fun at the game and all the events surrounding the game," Pederson said. "It was a fabulous crowd and a fabulous atmosphere. When people come out Saturday against Buffalo, we're going to do the same types of things. We're going to have that atmosphere at every game and keep building on it. We're certainly hoping that people hang with us as we move forward."</ < div>

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[sirwinzalot]

On a number of these:

Liking E. Carolina, Stanford, Miami, Penn State, on the other side with Nevada +10.5.

Good luck on most of these.

 

[~Utah]

GL Sirwinzalot :cheers:

Syracuse -4 to win 1 unit

I personally have no idea how Greg Robinson has a job, but maybe its his last year. This team wont be very good again and without question have another losing season, but the one thing they do is play well against MAC teams. Syracuse is 10-1-1 against MAC teams, and as home favorites they have covered all 4 of their games since 2005. While Akron, hasnt beat a Big East school since 1992.

Supposedly Andrew Robinson (Syracuse) has potential to be the best QB since Mcnabb was thas there. They are also really deep in the running back poisition. A lot of people with injuries are b ack, and some rate Collier as one of the top backs in the league. Also the defense should improve slightly, they had a couple of big losses in the secondary, but you can expect the D-line to play much better.

Akron actually moved their top running back from last year into the secondary which is a pretty intersting move. They only have 5 coming back on defense, and they have 8 coming back to an offense that was never very good. Jacquemain should improve but thats about it. The defense should be the same as last year also because they got a few good replacements like a kid from Iowa on the D-line, but he wont be able to replace the 3 starters that left from last year.

Think Syracuse wins this by 10 or so.

G. Tech +7 to win 1 unit

Dont know why this team got picked by a lot of people to finish near the bottom, but I think Paul Johnson is one of the best HC's in the NCAA. G. Tech had a throw away game last week with Jacksonville St. BC shut out Kent St but I dont expect anything like that to happen against G. Tech. They ran a pretty good offense, Kent St did, but the turnovers eventually killed them, especially Kent St's 2 INT's in Boston College's territory. Kent st ran the ball pretty well though, 36 rushes for 126. Obviously G. Tech will be rushing a lot, and I think BC will have a lot of trouble stopping it. In my opinion Boston College wasnt even very good last year, the offense seemed slow, and they just didnt seem that good to me. Now without Matt Ryan they seem like they could be terrible. Crane is untested, he has 146 pass yardings in his career and that includes the 100 he had last week, thats right 100 passing yards against Kent St. This game is gonna come down to who has the better running game, and I think Paul Johnson's team is gonna beat out BC.

ECU +7.5 to win 1 unit

Gonna jump on this before it hits a touchdown. A lot of people could see this as sort of a trap game, but its not, this West Virginia team is just not nearly as good as they were under Rich Rodriguez. Bill Stewart is NOT a good coach and you are gonna see the world of WVU football fall very very fast in my opinion. I had the WVU game on TV here in Pittsburgh and I watched bits and peices of it and Villanova was having literally no trouble running and passing on this team. WVU didnt even seem to care. White is still a good player, but ive never thought he was that great, hes one dimensional, and if you blitz him and get to him he will struggle. Noel Devine is a talented player but he just is not Steve Slaton. Then there is the WR's, they lost a ton from last year, they lost their best WR in Reynaud, this offense is very diminished, with an idiot coach, no WR and a lesser RB that has a lot of athletic talent and thats really all we know about him.

Then there is the defense, 4 returning starters. Most of the D-line is gone. In the secondary, they have to replace 3 starters, and the defense is a huge huge ?

ECU played very well last week, and they look like a team that can be a "BCS buster". Pinkney looked great last week, and even though I know Glennon was the QB for V. Tech last year and I was kind of hoping he would improve, but he didnt. White is better, no question, but Whites numbers always go down on the road.

I see ECU keeping this game very close, possibly winning.

 

[ddk997]

Nice write-up on vandy Alex, I believe one of the reasons they struggled to stop a mobile qb/run game last year was the major lost of their best defensive player, Jaspeur Brinkley who plays in the middle and is a big part of leadership on that defense. He also didnt play the full game against NC State, which makes me believe he will be ready to go balls to the wall against a team they want revenge(sp?) against. They should be able to keep moore's mouth shut this year and it'll be even sweeter to do it in vandy.

I like your TT and PSU plays...GL this weekend man:cheers:

 

[lindetrain]

Think you need to drop TTU and LT from your leans...don't really like either of them and might end up on the opposite side of both. IMO, Nevada may be the best play on the board this week

I wouldn't say you got lucky with UCLA considering they were covering from start to finish...

 

[TopDaddy]

Gurv, concerning South Carolina against the run, and more importantly the mobile QB, South Carolina has shifted their defensive scheme to what looked like a 3-3-5 or a 4-2-5 against NC State, which allowed for more speed on the field in a much broader spectrum. I'm sure Spurrier will also run a spy on defense as well just to keep an eye on Nickson. Not saying this scheme will rectify the problem, but it can't hurt.

I'm sure ETG will have a ton more on this defensive change if he hasn't said somthing already about it...

 

[~Utah]

ddk - thanks, and thats what ETG also said but the line was 100% there agaisnt ULL who raped them in the running game also. I see a lot of people are using the "revenge angle" and thats South Carolina is gonna rape them, I dont think they have it in them. Well I do, but I dont think they can do it. I dont think they are that good of a team, the struggles and question marks alright started against NC State. Well maybe they should play better, but they didnt, they played how they played, and it wasnt very good

Linde - Not sure about either of those yet, I see a lot of people are on Tech and it is a huge public play, and I hate backing huge public plays, so I might just make it a no play, havent looked enough at LT too be sure yet either

About the UCLA game I think I did get lucky, Tennessee is a much more talented team. They were covering the whole game, but like I said because of idiotic coaching. They had 4 INT's in the 1H and were only down 7, and should have been tied, thats luck right there. Tennessee was on the 5 yard line, I think if Tennessee scores that TD the game would have been over, but call it a momentum swing for UCLA.

Top - I already read about the diffrent scheme for the defense, and I just dont believe in it. If it was that easy, just to change how you line up on the feild, then football wouldnt be fun, its the same personel as last year with the same high expectations, they were all their against ULL and got raped. This team wasnt supposed to do as bad they did last year when it came to stop the run, but they did. In 2005 they had the same good expectation, still they bombed, and were just as bad as last year. I think they improve but not enough. I also in fact just dont believe in Steve Spurrier. Maybe they control the run more, but from what ive read, the Vandy defense isnt as bad as ETG says, they are young, but they are fast, they will get pressure on Smelley, this South Carolina offense isnt good at all.

 

[E.T.G.]

ya know I disagree about some things in that WVU play.

You mentioned it yourself:

I watched bits and peices of it and Villanova was having literally no trouble running and passing on this team. WVU didnt even seem to care.

They were playing friggen Nova, how pumped up can you possibly be, this was a 34-7 game at 1 point and they were not even trying to use their strengths on offense (running the ball).

I also disagree about "little game" Steve Slaton. He spent more time on the sideline in big games for WVU with his pussy cramps than is even close to acceptable.

I will give you the loss of Reynaurd. The OL is still real solid, White still runs like a Deer, Devine is going to be better than Slaton and this offense is very hard to slow down, see the 48-7 ass whooping ECU got last year.

Everyone got to see ECU upset a known name program like VT who has no offense what so ever and now I even see people calling for another upset? ECU is not sneaking up on anybody this week, WVU will be fully aware that this is a business trip

I think this line coming down any more is unjustifiable, really. ECU needs it to pour so that the speed of WVU is equalized otherwise they are going to get run off the field, jmo.

 

[counselor]

Read this today and nearly puked

Pitt's AD supports Wannstedst

That's the dreaded Kiss of Death...

I'll may be supporting your team this weekend vs Barfalo, actually...

 

[~Utah]

ya know I disagree about some things in that WVU play.

You mentioned it yourself:



They were playing friggen Nova, how pumped up can you possibly be, this was a 34-7 game at 1 point and they were not even trying to use their strengths on offense (running the ball).

I also disagree about "little game" Steve Slaton. He spent more time on the sideline in big games for WVU with his pussy cramps than is even close to acceptable.

I will give you the loss of Reynaurd. The OL is still real solid, White still runs like a Deer, Devine is going to be better than Slaton and this offense is very hard to slow down, see the 48-7 ass whooping ECU got last year.

Everyone got to see ECU upset a known name program like VT who has no offense what so ever and now I even see people calling for another upset? ECU is not sneaking up on anybody this week, WVU will be fully aware that this is a business trip

I think this line coming down any more is unjustifiable, really. ECU needs it to pour so that the speed of WVU is equalized otherwise they are going to get run off the field, jmo.

after long and hard thought ETG, im gonna make ECU a no play for me. V. Tech's offense cant be compared to WVU's and I dont know if ECU can keep up with WVU long and enough, but my thoughts on WVU remain the same. As soon as they play someone with a fast offense, WVU not only gets beat but blown out. Here is another writeup about WVU..on another site that I posted this play at...

First of all, Stewart is 100x better for this program than Rodriguez ever was. Here is a coach the players are standing behind, and playing tough for, and actually has the balls to call plays we're not used to running. Last season against Pitt & SF, Rich Rod would call between-the-tackle runs on 3 & 7, 3 & 8, and beyond. He was not a good play caller. He only looked like a genius because White and Slaton tore off ass-gaping runs for TDs.

Secondly, Devine is a better RB than Slaton. He is not as fast, but he is quicker and has better vision. It's obviously going to take a little time for him to settle in but no worries. Plus if Devine can't get it going, we have freshman beast Terrance Kearns in the shadow. Here is a RB, who we can let pound the ball at the goal line. He won't be as dominant as Schmitt was, but Kearns will be solid in 3rd & shorts and red zone stands.

Yes, our WRs are nothing to write home about, but with Jock Sanders & Noel Devine splitting out for passes, our offensive attack is still extremely solid and actually quite balanced. Arnett showed some very nice separation against the Nova defense.

If you blitz Pat White, Pat White runs all over you. It's that simple. He was hindered all last season by lingering injuries and a coach who simply didn't want to be with the team. He's throwing less screens and more mid-range passes which is great. He has the arm for it (obviously can't throw 60 yard bombs) and is quite accurate on the move. I expect 2 rushing and 2 passing TDs for him this week.

And on ECU's side, everyone seems to forget they won on a ST play. Not taking anything away from them, but they almost lost to one of the worst offenses in the NCAA. Virginia Tech is atrocious when they're on offense.

Also, we dropped 48 points on Nova with only 22:38 time of possession (opposed to 37:22 of Nova). We had 6 straight scoring drives and capitalized on each turnover and penalty. This is what we do. We find the end zone. We score.

I'm not going to say much for our defense aside from the fact we have one of the strongest LB corps. Our secondary plays bend but not break defense. It should be enough against an ECU team we've beaten 7 times in a row. We have this team's number year in, year out.

By the way, when we crushed them 48-7 last season, they had the same QB but Chris Johnson toting the rock.

WVU: 38
ECU: 17

 

[E.T.G.]

ddk - thanks, and thats what ETG also said but the line was 100% there agaisnt ULL who raped them in the running game also. I see a lot of people are using the "revenge angle" and thats South Carolina is gonna rape them, I dont think they have it in them. Well I do, but I dont think they can do it. I dont think they are that good of a team, the struggles and question marks alright started against NC State. Well maybe they should play better, but they didnt, they played how they played, and it wasnt very good


Top - I already read about the diffrent scheme for the defense, and I just dont believe in it. If it was that easy, just to change how you line up on the feild, then football wouldnt be fun, its the same personel as last year with the same high expectations, they were all their against ULL and got raped. This team wasnt supposed to do as bad they did last year when it came to stop the run, but they did. In 2005 they had the same good expectation, still they bombed, and were just as bad as last year. I think they improve but not enough. I also in fact just dont believe in Steve Spurrier. Maybe they control the run more, but from what ive read, the Vandy defense isnt as bad as ETG says, they are young, but they are fast, they will get pressure on Smelley, this South Carolina offense isnt good at all.

I think one major difference in the defense is the change in DC. Go check how Tyrone Nix defense at Ole Miss did last week versus Memphis then look at what Ellis Johnson was able to do with Miss St when he had less talent than he has now. This is a vetern defense and they didn't radically change their base defense so the adjustment has been smooth so far. Ellis Johnson preaches playing discipline defense and teaching the kids the fundamentals he also seems more vocal and more of a teacher than Nix. We will all see tomorrow though with a "true" running QB and the 4-2-5. If I was the DC, I would make E. Cook my spy on Nickson, after about 2 runs, he won't take off again.

 

[~Utah]

ETG - We will just have to see in this one, you have a lot more confidence in South Carolina then I do on how fast they can turn around their offense and defense

Bowling Green -5.5 to win 1 unit

Minnesota is possibly, in comptetion with the worst team in a BCS conference, its between Syracuse, Minny, and Duke right now, cant decide which, but Duke probably beats them out. I saw some people saying they have really imrpoved after watching last weeks game. No. They havent, they cant stop anyone. They played just last season at Minnesota and Bowling Green won that one (by 1). Northern Illinios killed Minny in the pass attack and got almost 360 yards. Bowling Green can do the same if not better, except BG has a much better defense then then N. Illinios. BG stopped Mccoy, who was supposedly one of the best backs in the East, cant see them having much trouble with Bennett.

Miami FL +21.5 to win 1 unit

Florida is a much better team, I give them that, but this is a prime time game , a rivalry game, and I could see this Miami team being a very improved sqaud this season. Shannon is building a great program there. Also I was not impressed with Florida's defense last week, I can see Miami keeping this close, probably not winning, but deffinatly in the game, the whole game.

Nevada +10.5 to win 1 unit

Gonna ride with Nevada here rather then T. Tech which was my original thought, but the public has jumped all over this, and I hate when a public jumps all over a line. The line was at 8.5 yesterday. Might seem stupid, but I am just fading the public. T. Tech's defense didnt look very good in their 1st game either.

Oregon St +16.5 to win 1 unit

Im betting against the boys to the east here. I can see the "Fuck Joe Paterno" threads on blankets coming from a mile away.

 

[~Utah]

1-0 start....

Texas A and M -2 to win 1 unit

I mean I just cant see them losing this game. If they lose, I dont know what Im gonna think, but its not gonna be anything good, Mike Sherman is better then this right?

Stanford +14 to win 1 unit

Just a well coached team, I think they will keep this close. I think ASU will be a bit over rated because of last year, but I vivedly remember the Texas game and how bad they looked, I think that was that teams true colors.

Middle Tenn St. +12.5 to win 1 unit

Last pick of the week, Maryland barely beat Delaware last week which just lost its NFL starting QB in Joe Flacco, at home. I think itll be the same thing with Middle Tenn St. A one touchdown game, and no more then that, Maryland is horrible on the offensive side of the ball, and their backup QB is playing this week after the starter went out.

 

[~Utah]

adding...

2H Stanford +7 to win 1 unit