AlexGurv Week 3 NCAAF Picks

[~Utah]

College Football 2008-2009 11-17 -7.70 units
Week 2 - 5-7 -2.70 units

Just a tough week overall for me. All seemed like it was going pretty good for me, till I came home and watched Florida kick a FG with 30 seconds left in the game to fuck my Miami +21.5 bet. O well shit happens, and that game right there turned my night around into a bad night. Nothing to do but move on and look forward to next week. Some thoughts about last week

- I went to the Pitt vs Buffalo game, we won, but we could have easily lost. McCoy ran 17 times, and he had good numbers, and I think 3 TD's, and thats great but it should be better. We should be running the ball with McCoy 22-25 times, and then with Stephen-Howling 10-15 times a game. We should in no way be throwing 35 times in a game, that doesnt make sense, and I dont see how the Stache doesnt see that. Our defense also didnt look that impressive, thats something else we should be good at it, but we arent. Cant stop a team on 3rd down seemingly. Missing tackles, just no good. Should be interesting with the Iowa game in a couple of weeks, I think we will be favored by 2 or 3 and it will be a good game.
- I wont be betting on or against Florida this year if I can help it, I just cant stand that Urban Meyers shit, its fucked me over too many times and I hope it fucks him over one of these days and he is the prime reason why I hope they dont win the national championship
- My Oklahoma future bet still looks steady, they put up some good number
- The Big East and the ACC are both really bad. I dont think ECU is that good, I just think that WVU is that bad. Slaton cant throw the ball, Stewart cant call a game. Devine should not be running only 12 times in a game (for 98 yards at that). They should be running this guy ALL day.
- Paul Johnson is a great coach
- Michigan is having a lot of trouble on offense
- Notre Dame is garbage
- This year will be another year of upsets

Here are my leans for week 3

leans in italics
blue bold are final plays

Thursday

Rutgers -4.5 to win 1 unit - L

Friday

South Florida -3.5 to win 1 unit - L
Washington St +3.5 to win 1 unit - L

Saturday

UCLA +7.5 to win 1 unit - L
Purdue + 9 to win 1 unit - W
SMU +36.5 to win 1 unit -W
Georgia -7 to win 1 unit - P
Wisconsin -2 to win 1 unit - W
Michigan -2 to win 1 unit - L
G. Tech +6 to win 1 unit - W
Cal -14 to win 1 unit - L
USC -11.5 to win 1 unit - W
Virginia +10.5 to win 1 unit - L
2H FAU +7.5 to win 1 unit - L
2H Duke -1 to win 1 unit - W
2H Cal -7 to win 1 unit- P
2H ECU -6.5 to win 1 unit - L
2H G. Tech +3 to win 1 unit - W
2H Georgia -4.5 to win 1 unit - W
2H BYU -2.5 to win 1 unit - W
2H Michigan -2 to win 1 unit - L
New Mexico St +26.5 to win 1 unit - L
Rice +9 to win 1 unit - L
2H Vandy -6 to win 1 unit - W
2H SMU +14.5 to win 1 unit -W
2H UNLV +14 to win 2 units - W
2H Wisconsin +2.5 to win 1 unit - L

 

[~Utah]

Dont ask me on other sites, were I am under a diffrent name, if its me

Rutgers -4.5 to win 1 unit (changed my mind after looking at numbers)

Rutgers, really, struggled against Fresno St. But UNC, is not Fresno St. They dont have a "NFL type QB". They dont have a very good defense. I think Rutgers will be better in this game then they were in the Fresno St game. They blew a lot of chances, and I cant imagine Schiano got on the team's ass for that one. While Rutgers struggled with Fresno St, UNC was struggling with Mcneese St. Tyler Yates isnt the QB everyone in Chapel Hills was hoping he would be, this flat out isnt a good team yet. Butch Davis has a lot of work to do

 

[YesSir]

Rutgers absolutely rolls here...BOL this week bro


That Florida game was such bs...luckily for me I had the number at 23 BUT Urban Meyer is such a piece of shit...Randy Shannon was pissed off about that . I was lucky that Florida's 5 wide set with all their starters in, up by 20 with a minute left did not cost me the game completely. He is a classless dirtbag...

 

[signalcaller]

GL this week AG. Really liking that Rutgers game myself. UNC just looks miserable again to start this season

 

[~Utah]

Gl Yessir - Cant say I didnt expect it from Meyers, hes done it time after time, just really sucked anyway. I know with about 8 minutes to go I literally had no chance of cover unless Miami got a garbage TD (even though I was covering at the time). I mean Tebow threw up a 50 yard pass with 4 minutes to go.

GL signal

South Florida -3.5 to win 1 unit

I know a lot of people from Lawrence, and have a lot of extended family there, and im even somewhat of a Kansas fan, but this team, is not nearly as good as they were last year. South Florida right now, looks like the best team in the Big east, even though they barely got by Central Florida (not a bad team). Theyve looked the best out of anyone in the big east. Kansas is good defensively, but I dont think they can matchup well against this southern florida team which always seems to play well at home. Southern Florida had 504 yards in last weeks game, there offense looked smooth, and I dont think they will have any trouble with Kansas. Kansas had one big win last season, and that was against V. Tech, but they really got beat on all sides of the ball by Mizzu. V. Tech doesnt have a very good offense with Glennon running the show. I see Southern Florida racking up yards easily like Mizzu did and Kansas having a lot of trouble stopping Grothe.

 

[broadwayjoe]

with ya on sfla...really like them. lean a couple of ways you're leaning as well....gl alex

 

[~Utah]

GL Broadway joe

SMU +35.5 to win 1 unit

Texas Tech will beat them by a lot and put up a lot of points but I see SMU putting up a good amount of points also.

Purdue +9 to win 1 unit

Could see Purdue winning this one out right in all honesty, I think this will be a good season for Purdue, In any case they should be able to keep with Oregon offensively who seems to be plagued with QB injuries every year.

UCLA +7.5 to win 1 unit

I guess this might be some wishful thinking because I dont want BYU to go undefeated this season and I hate when mid-major's are "BCS busters". The defense is great for UCLA, better then last year's. This was a 1 point game last year in the bowl game and UCLA won outright in the regular season matchup. I think UCLA keeps this close maybe wins outright

 

[chopz33]

like UCLA

 

[horses]

good luck this week Alex.

be aware of the UCLA injury situation...Bell, Everett and Paulson will all be out this week. The Bell injury is esp crippling as their RB depth is virtually nil.

 

[moneydog]

GL Broadway joe

SMU +35.5 to win 1 unit

Texas Tech will beat them by a lot and put up a lot of points but I see SMU putting up a good amount of points also.

Purdue +9 to win 1 unit

Could see Purdue winning this one out right in all honesty, I think this will be a good season for Purdue, In any case they should be able to keep with Oregon offensively who seems to be plagued with QB injuries every year.

UCLA +7.5 to win 1 unit

I guess this might be some wishful thinking because I dont want BYU to go undefeated this season and I hate when mid-major's are "BCS busters". The defense is great for UCLA, better then last year's. This was a 1 point game last year in the bowl game and UCLA won outright in the regular season matchup. I think UCLA keeps this close maybe wins outright

With ya on Purdue +9 ML And SMU Rutgers and a few more . BOL

 

[~Utah]

Gl moneydog

Georgia -7 to win 1 unit

South Carolina always keeps this game close and I figured they always covered in this game, but apparently they are just 2-6 in the last 8 years. I think most of the reason is because they were considered pretty average when Holtz was there. Even as a rivalry game, I cant imagine Smelley beat the Georgia defense when he had trouble against the Vandy defense. I dont see the Bulldogs putting up a ton of points but I see them covering

Wisconsin -2 to win 1 unit

I thought at first Fresno St but im reminded of the Rutgers easily cutting through this defense and "almost" putting up some 30 some points in the first half. Wisconsin is much better offensively and possibly just as good defesenvily. This is gonna be good game but I think Wisconsin pulls it out

Michigan -2 to win 1 unit

This will be a great moment for me because Notre Dame is garbage. There's no 2 ways around it, Notre Dame is a bad team, Charlie Weis sucks and I cant think of a single reason that would convince me Notre Dame is winning this game after watching some of the game last week. Even though Michigan didnt exactly blow out Miami of Ohio, they played good D and played good football, Notre Dame just looked a mess last week

G. Tech +6 to win 1 unit

Johnson is one of the best coaches in the NCAA and I see him just running that option offense down V. Tech's throat. V. Tech struggled against Furman last week, Furman is in the FCS or whatever they call it and there called Furman. V. Tech just struggles offensively, I expect this to be a very close game, possilbly an outright win for G. Tech.

 

[nawlins51]

GL Alex

 

[B.A.R.]

GL Alex this week.

 

[~Utah]

GL Nawlins :cheers:
GL B.A.R. :cheers:

USC -11.5 to win 1 unit

Man I jumped on this game way too late but I think OSU looked bad last week and it wasnt just because they were looking forward to this game. Beanie Well's is gonna play but I dont think thats gonna affect the outcome of this game. USC's offensive line and Mark Sanchez look about as solid as ever, while the OSU offense looks pretty questionable to me. In fact people are talking about the Big East and ACC being terrible, the Big 10 isnt that great either. Especially offensively. I think USC wins easily over this team.

Washington St+3.5 to win 1 unit

This line doesnt make a bit of sense to me...so im gonna fade the huge public play and see what happens...

Virginia +10.5 to win 1 unit

Dont think Virginia is as bad as they looked against USC. Uconn always plays there games tight. So does Virginia, this was a 1 point game last year. Uconn struggled on offense against Temple. While Virginia struggled on offense against USC. Huge Difference, think that VA keeps this tight all the way and Uconn wins by a FG.

Cal -14 to win 1 unit

Cal put up 60 something last week against Washington St. Maryland lost to Middle Tennessee St. The offenses dont even compare. Cal might be the most underrated team in the country, I think they are certainly a top 10 team by the end of the year and I dont see anyway Maryland hangs in.

Lot of plays 'an_horse'

Ill be playing some halftime plays also

 

[broadwayjoe]

"USC's offensive line and Mark Sanchez look about as solid as ever"

"Dont think Virginia is as bad as they looked against USC"

in my opinion you have virginia a little overrated here...that defensive line is one of the worst in the country out of the bcs teams. offensive line not much better...they're terrible in the trenches and their defense has gotten significantly worse than last year. light years away from a repeat to a big bowl this year and i suspect they will struggle even in a weak acc..

could be wrong as you know i have before (vandy), but something to keep an eye on. not sure how much this uconn game is going to be a measure of that since i believe them to be overrated as well, but i think uconn still at least comes close to covering this number if they don't

 

[Heffis]

Cal -14 to win 1 unit

Cal put up 60 something last week against Washington St. Maryland lost to Middle Tennessee St. The offenses dont even compare. Cal might be the most underrated team in the country, I think they are certainly a top 10 team by the end of the year and I dont see anyway Maryland hangs in.

You still like these kids playing what basically amounts to a 9am start for them?

 

[~Utah]

BWJ - I feel like they always start poorly and improve through this season. This time also, there is no question about the weakness of the conference. The Big east is garbage this year and the ACC is better as pathetic as that is

Heffis - I think thats fine

GL