ALCS and NLCS Discussion Thread

Just looking around at stuff.
Yamamoto on 5 days rest. He doesn't do 4 days. Only 5 and 6+ according to baseball reference. A tiny bit lower ERA and a little bit better K potential on 6+ days, but majority of his starts are on 5 which is what we got today so, normal.

Peralta doesn't care about 4 or 5 days off. He's on 4 tonight. And both dudes have their normal catchers. HPU Gabe Morales (according to ESPN) is behind home plate. Peralta has two good starts with Morales. Moto hasn't worked with Gabe yet.

So I looked around a bit..
 
Screenshot_20251014_180018_DuckDuckGo.jpg
(from don best website)
this caught my eye, this is 2025. looks like tendencies. looks like Brew mash in the F5 innings and fall off. meanwhile Dodgers average in the middle with 1.4 in F5 then get way more serious later on.

anyway, if this comes true tonight I might try and press my dodgers bet halfway through or maybe try and buy an o2.5 at a good price if they start a few innings scoreless.
 
Which is pretty funny considering the LAD bullpen is a fraction of what it was before September. I think Freddy P does well and I favor the MIL bullpen (gulp). That said I picked LAD in 5 and all along thought this was the hiccup.
 
I do this every year to check, keep it under your hat, but G4 MLB playoff series 72-45-4 OU 61.5% to the over according to sdql. Looks like it goes back since 2004. Other series games are where you'd expect between 47 and 52 percent over time but G4 sticks out.
 
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austinhous said:
I do this every year to check, keep it under your hat, but G4 MLB playoff series 72-45-4 OU 61.5% to the over according to sdql. Looks like it goes back since 2004. Other series games are where you'd expect between 47 and 52 percent over time but G4 sticks out.
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I guess it makes sense since most teams will throw aces in games 1 and 5 so you're getting the lesser of the staff in game 4 usually

Mariners are a unicorn in that Gilbert/Kirby/Castillo is the order but Woo was likely the best of them all this season but injured to this point. Miller throwing that gem in game 1 was so vital for them. Now they get Kirby in g3 I assume or if it's Castillo he's been awesome at home. And then Woo? Hate to take Miller out of that rotation after game 1 but he's likely still the odd man out. Their staff is so stupidly deep.
 
since August 17 last year Peralta 9-1 SU home/night with 7 runs allowed in 56 innings

since July Yamamoto 1-5 SU away/night with 17 runs allowed in 35 innings

yeah it's trendy and cherry-picky that's sdql. bought dodgers last night +105 on some fanduel boost shit that I'm too stubborn to cash out lol
 
Great breakdown if you like the Dodgers from a writer at Action:

The Dodgers re-opened around -1300 (92.9% implied) to win both their series and the NL Pennant after Game 2, with the Brewers as high as +1000 (9% implied).

I project an edge on the Dodgers to sweep, win 4-0 (projected +140, listed +170 at DraftKings) or cover a 3.5-game spread behind Tyler Glasnow and Shohei Ohtani in Games 3 and 4 at home; bet that prop down to +150, at just under a two percent edge compared to my projection.

The Dodgers are currently -170 for Game 3, and odds of +170 to sweep imply that their Game 4 moneyline would be around -145 with Shohei Ohtani on the bump. However, I project that line anywhere from -180 to -200 for Ohtani, depending on the Brewers' Game 3 bullpen usage, meaning the Dodgers are currently undervalued to win the next two games and sweep the series.
 
Castillo starts have gone 15-1-1 to the over (against an average total of 8.0) when M's score more than 3 runs

4-13-1 when M's score 3 or fewer
 
I put brew o4.5 +200 with Vandy -120 so hopefully rooting for vandy together tomorrow on second leg of a +450

this is also mlb G4 playoff situation that's been good for runs and I'm guaranteed 9 innings w visitor
 
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austinhous said:
I put brew o4.5 +200 with Vandy -120 so hopefully rooting for vandy together tomorrow on second leg of a +450

this is also mlb G4 playoff situation that's been good for runs and I'm guaranteed 9 innings w visitor
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Yes very important for visitor getting 27 outs in a series where I completely favor offense over pitching. GL on it!
 
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