Why Alabama Won’t Return To The Playoffs Next Season
Alabama will be favored to win the title next season.. But there are three reasons why you shouldn’t even bet on them to make the playoffs: LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn. If Alabama loses to two of these opponents—which I think will happen—then it won’t make the playoffs. Let’s look at why each opponent can beat Bama.
LSU
Despite arriving late from Ohio State, quarterback Joe Burrow boosted the Tigers’ offense. It averaged nearly seven points more per game than last season. Burrow is a dual-threat, which is the kind of quarterback that has historically given Alabama trouble. Burrow ran for over 60 yards against three different SEC opponents. He can also pass well. It was Burrow’s passing that allowed LSU to march down the field in the fourth quarter against Auburn and kick the game-winning field goal. This year, Burrow will have a whole offseason to work with his offensive coordinator.
Burrow will also be more familiar with his receivers. Freshman Ja’Marr Chase, for example, was also in his first year in LSU’s offense. Chase was a four-star recruit, who played a big role in LSU’s Fiesta Bowl victory, catching nine passes for 93 yards and a touchdown. He’s one of many high-potential youngsters. The most proven commodity, leading receiver Justin Jefferson, will return. The Tigers also return four starting offensive linemen and the usual talent and depth at running back and on defense. Don’t forget former four-star linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson, who was injured for the season.
LSU, which got shut out against Alabama in Week 9, will be able to score in their next match-up.
Mississippi State
When Joe Moorhead arrived to coach Miss State, Nick Fitzgerald was already entrenched as the starter and Moorhead couldn’t help that. He never showed much willingness to play backup Keytaon Thompson, who is likewise more of a threat with his legs than with his arm. So Moorhead recruited four-star quarterback Garrett Shrader, who is compatible with Moorhead’s RPO-friendly offense. Shrader is fast and an effective ball-carrier. He also shows a strong arm and the ability to throw accurate passes downfield. He completed 65.8 percent of his passes in high school. The freshman will have until the end of the season to be ready for Alabama. Kylin Hill, who ran for 126 yards against Auburn and for 47 on seven carries against Bama, will return in the backfield and the Bulldogs return key parts at receiver and offensive line.
On defense, MSU is stacked with four-star recruits like Nate Pickering and Charles Moore on the defensive line. Both rank top-10 nationally at their position. Some of last year’s backups will step up at d-line and there are no worries about finding linebackers or defensive backs.
Miss State, like LSU, limited Alabama’s scoring and will have the offense to beat Alabama.
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Auburn
Four-star dual-threat quarterback Bo Nix committed to the Tigers and is viewed as one of the nation’s top quarterback recruits. He completed 64.8 percent of his passes in high school for 4,446 yards, 56 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Video footage shows his ability to throw accurately downfield and on the run and also to run for huge chunks. If Gus Malzahn’s aggressive play-calling in Auburn’s bowl win was any indication of the future, the Tigers’ offense should be more aggressive and more prolific than it was last season.
The Tigers love to run, but struggled to because of bad blocking. After four senior starters departed last year, the offensive line is Auburn’s big focus for 2019 recruiting and it’s signed important talent like four-star guard Keiondre Jones that will at least provide much-needed depth. The offensive line will return every starter. Auburn will also return its top six running backs, who were young last year, as were freshmen receivers Anthony Schwartz and Seth Williams, who combined for over 100 yards in Auburn’s bowl victory.
On defense, Auburn ranked 22nd in first-half opposing scoring. The problem is that the offense’s struggle to sustain drives caused them to wear down. For example, Auburn was down only 17-14 at halftime to Alabama, but gave up 35 points in the second half, while its quarterback only mustered 118 total yards. Auburn’s defense will be stacked, featuring five-star linebacker Owen Pappoe, who can be used in a lot of ways.
Takeaway
Alabama will lose to at least two of the above opponents. It also travels to Texas A&M, which is a notoriously tough place to play, where Clemson nearly lost. These opponents feature a dual-threat quarterback, burgeoning talent at wide receiver, stability in protection and at running back, and, like always, a defense stacked with physical talent. Too much speaks for Alabama’s competition to count on Alabama to return to the playoffs.
Alabama will be favored to win the title next season.. But there are three reasons why you shouldn’t even bet on them to make the playoffs: LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn. If Alabama loses to two of these opponents—which I think will happen—then it won’t make the playoffs. Let’s look at why each opponent can beat Bama.
LSU
Despite arriving late from Ohio State, quarterback Joe Burrow boosted the Tigers’ offense. It averaged nearly seven points more per game than last season. Burrow is a dual-threat, which is the kind of quarterback that has historically given Alabama trouble. Burrow ran for over 60 yards against three different SEC opponents. He can also pass well. It was Burrow’s passing that allowed LSU to march down the field in the fourth quarter against Auburn and kick the game-winning field goal. This year, Burrow will have a whole offseason to work with his offensive coordinator.
Burrow will also be more familiar with his receivers. Freshman Ja’Marr Chase, for example, was also in his first year in LSU’s offense. Chase was a four-star recruit, who played a big role in LSU’s Fiesta Bowl victory, catching nine passes for 93 yards and a touchdown. He’s one of many high-potential youngsters. The most proven commodity, leading receiver Justin Jefferson, will return. The Tigers also return four starting offensive linemen and the usual talent and depth at running back and on defense. Don’t forget former four-star linebacker K’Lavon Chaisson, who was injured for the season.
LSU, which got shut out against Alabama in Week 9, will be able to score in their next match-up.
Mississippi State
When Joe Moorhead arrived to coach Miss State, Nick Fitzgerald was already entrenched as the starter and Moorhead couldn’t help that. He never showed much willingness to play backup Keytaon Thompson, who is likewise more of a threat with his legs than with his arm. So Moorhead recruited four-star quarterback Garrett Shrader, who is compatible with Moorhead’s RPO-friendly offense. Shrader is fast and an effective ball-carrier. He also shows a strong arm and the ability to throw accurate passes downfield. He completed 65.8 percent of his passes in high school. The freshman will have until the end of the season to be ready for Alabama. Kylin Hill, who ran for 126 yards against Auburn and for 47 on seven carries against Bama, will return in the backfield and the Bulldogs return key parts at receiver and offensive line.
On defense, MSU is stacked with four-star recruits like Nate Pickering and Charles Moore on the defensive line. Both rank top-10 nationally at their position. Some of last year’s backups will step up at d-line and there are no worries about finding linebackers or defensive backs.
Miss State, like LSU, limited Alabama’s scoring and will have the offense to beat Alabama.
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Auburn
Four-star dual-threat quarterback Bo Nix committed to the Tigers and is viewed as one of the nation’s top quarterback recruits. He completed 64.8 percent of his passes in high school for 4,446 yards, 56 touchdowns, and seven interceptions. Video footage shows his ability to throw accurately downfield and on the run and also to run for huge chunks. If Gus Malzahn’s aggressive play-calling in Auburn’s bowl win was any indication of the future, the Tigers’ offense should be more aggressive and more prolific than it was last season.
The Tigers love to run, but struggled to because of bad blocking. After four senior starters departed last year, the offensive line is Auburn’s big focus for 2019 recruiting and it’s signed important talent like four-star guard Keiondre Jones that will at least provide much-needed depth. The offensive line will return every starter. Auburn will also return its top six running backs, who were young last year, as were freshmen receivers Anthony Schwartz and Seth Williams, who combined for over 100 yards in Auburn’s bowl victory.
On defense, Auburn ranked 22nd in first-half opposing scoring. The problem is that the offense’s struggle to sustain drives caused them to wear down. For example, Auburn was down only 17-14 at halftime to Alabama, but gave up 35 points in the second half, while its quarterback only mustered 118 total yards. Auburn’s defense will be stacked, featuring five-star linebacker Owen Pappoe, who can be used in a lot of ways.
Takeaway
Alabama will lose to at least two of the above opponents. It also travels to Texas A&M, which is a notoriously tough place to play, where Clemson nearly lost. These opponents feature a dual-threat quarterback, burgeoning talent at wide receiver, stability in protection and at running back, and, like always, a defense stacked with physical talent. Too much speaks for Alabama’s competition to count on Alabama to return to the playoffs.
