Alabama vs. Wisconsin College Football Week 3 Betting Picks
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Wisconsin Badgers,
Saturday, September 14, 2024 at noon ET at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison
Alabama's Weakness
Every team has a weakness. A team that is expected to cover the spread should be able to exploit the weakness of its opponent.
Alabama's weakness is certainly its offensive line.
We saw this unit struggle to protect its quarterback and to play competently in general.
A key question for this game is, therefore, whether Wisconsin has the quality in its defensive line to take advantage of Alabama's vulnerable offensive line.
Wisconsin's Defensive Line
The answer to this question is a resounding "no."
During its offseason, Wisconsin had seven defensive linemen depart.
Its top returning defensive lineman was James Thompson Jr.
For starters, Thompson Jr. was not impactful last year. He mustered all of 29 total tackles and three sacks.
This year, he also suffered a season-ending injury, making Wisconsin currently even thinner along its defensive line.
Sadly, Wisconsin's defensive line depended on Thompson Jr. in order to have some semblance of starting-quality competence. He was the only returning somewhat decent defensive linemen that they had.
The top two returning defensive linemen, after the now injured Thompson Jr., combined last year for only 25 tackles and one sack in a combined total of 545 snaps.
On top of everything else, Wisconsin's defensive linemen is headed by a new position coach this year.
This unit is starting from scratch in severe senses.
Alabama's Offensive Line Will Improve
Anyhow, Alabama's offensive line also promises to improve relative to its Week 2 performance.
Starting left tackle Kadyn Proctor has, according to Alabama's head coach, a good chance of returning to the starting lineup.
The Crimson Tide are figuring out, in the meantime, who their most competent tackles are.
It took until the fourth quarter of their last game for them to realize that, at right tackle, Wilkin Formby belongs on the bench and that Elijah Pritchett belongs on the field in his place.
Wisconsin's Porous Run Defense
For all of Alabama's issues with its offensive line, it has, already, still been running the ball extremely well.
The Crimson Tide rank sixth with 264 rushing yards per game.
Skeptics will insist that Alabama has merely thrived against weak opponents.
However, Wisconsin's run defense must certainly qualify as weak.
Despite facing soft tests from approximately 20-point underdogs, the Badgers have allowed opposing running backs to perform well.
Western Michigan running back Jalen Buckley ran 16 times for 64 yards and two touchdowns against the Badgers.
Most recently and more alarmingly, the Badgers conceded 83 rushing yards on 6.9 YPC to South Dakota running back Charles Pierre Jr.
Wisconsin's run defense is porous not only because its defensive line lacks quality.
Its linebackers are also struggling to be competent. For example, they struggle with over-pursuing and generally with getting into position and taking the proper angles.
Their deficiencies allow opposing runners to thrive consistently and to achieve chunk plays.
Wisconsin's Unreliable Offense
Despite the softness of its competition thus far, Wisconsin on offense has had trouble generating chunk plays.
Folks who want to bet on Wisconsin will want to see this team, obviously, score enough points to cover the spread.
However, the Badgers lack matchup advantages, and they haven't shown that they can be reliable especially against a defense like Alabama's.
Regarding the former, the Crimson Tide have one significant weakness on defense that opposing teams will want to be able to exploit.
Due to its scheme, Alabama is going to be vulnerable to opposing quarterbacks who run the ball.
South Florida, in Week 2, took advantage of this weakness when its quarterback failed to pass efficiently but still ran for 108 yards – although, despite taking advantage of Alabama's vulnerability, the Bulls still failed to exceed 16 points.
Unfortunately for the Badgers, Wisconsin's starting quarterback does not pose any kind of threat on the ground.
Tyler Van Dyke, in his career, is averaging less than a half-yard per carry.
Regarding the latter point that Wisconsin's offense is unthreatening in general, we can use recent results to make our point roughly.
The Badgers in Week 1 managed 28 points against a Western Michigan squad that allowed 49 points in the first three quarters to another Big Ten team, Ohio State.
Wisconsin in Week 2 mustered fewer points against South Dakota than Missouri achieved in the first half when it played South Dakota last season.
Alabama's Stout Front Seven
The quality and talent level of Alabama's defense places it on another planet than either Western Michigan's defense or South Dakota's.
After ranking 18th in total defense last year, Alabama's defense looks solid once again, as it has allowed a total of 16 points in two weeks.
Alabama returns a high level of talent, ability, proven experience, and hopeful youth to its defensive line.
The Crimson Tide's linebacking corps features All-SEC Preseason 2024 selections Deontae Lawson and Jihaad Campbell.
This front seven will overwhelm a Wisconsin rush attack that, in terms of YPC, remains statistically mediocre.
It is a deep group of running backs but not a threatening one.
Wisconsin's Passing Outlook
Alabama's secondary is likewise permeated with five-star talent.
Against a Crimson Tide group that ranks 19th against the pass, I don't see Van Dyke – a decent quarterback who has been nothing more than serviceable in terms of efficiency – posing a threat.
Van Dyke is barely managing a 60 percent completion rate.
When facing stronger competition, his tendency to turn the ball over will likewise show up. He threw twelve interceptions last season.
Under its new defensive scheme, Alabama's defensive backs are in great position to intercept passes.
Van Dyke often makes poor decisions and struggles with important things like anticipation.
Of course, he suffers from characteristic immobility and will also struggle, in the first place, to get passes off in the face of Alabama's vicious pass-rushers, which includes up-and-coming star
Qua Russaw, who is displaying his five-star talent with two sacks so far.
Alabama's Pass Attack
Whereas Wisconsin's offense will struggle to grind out possessions with its lack of quality in its rush and pass attacks, Alabama will be able to complement its tremendous advantage on the ground with its pass attack.
The Crimson Tide feature a Heisman contender in Jalen Milroe and a ridiculous amount of talent – with great speed and size – in its wide receiving corps.
This group is waiting for breakout stars. Kobe Prentice, with his sub-4.4. speed, is finally getting a chance.
Former five-star recruit Ryan Williams is already displaying his big-play talent. He has 207 receiving yards in two games.
There are a lot of wide receivers with which Milroe can exploit a thin Badgers cornerback room.
Wisconsin's secondary will rely too much on a former D-II guy in Nyzier Fourqurean, who allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete passes with 66-percent frequency last year.
This is largely the same group as the one that ranked below-average in the Big Ten – which is not known for its quarterbacking quality – against the pass.
Again, there is little show of quality here with which to suggest that Wisconsin can contain Alabama's tremendous talent in its passing game, which with its big-armed quarterback and big-play threats at receiver is demonstrably capable of scoring in any moment.
Takeaway
Alabama's running back group will steamroll Wisconsin's vulnerable front seven.
But also the Badgers' thin cornerback room will struggle to contain Alabama's impressive number of threats in its passing attack.
The Crimson Tide will sustain drives consistently and will use big plays to score with ease.
In order to cover the spread, Wisconsin's offense will require more than a pulse.
But its mediocre rush attack, facing Alabama's stacked front seven, will put too much on the shoulders of Tyler Van Dyke.
Having to press from behind is a terrible thing for a turnover-prone quarterback.
Van Dyke, when he doesn't turn the ball over or face too much pressure from Bama's pass-rushing prowess, will try to overcome his deficient passing traits to lean on a single wide receiver – Will Pauling.
Wisconsin's quarterback is too inefficient, too inexplosive, and lacks sufficient support against an Alabama secondary that is helping to position the Tide as one of the top pass defenses.
Scoring will be drastically easier for the Crimson Tide, while oddsmakers are also underestimating how severely various deficiencies plague the 0-2 ATS Badgers.
Best Bet: Alabama -15.5 at -110 with BetOnline
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Wisconsin Badgers,
Saturday, September 14, 2024 at noon ET at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison
Alabama's Weakness
Every team has a weakness. A team that is expected to cover the spread should be able to exploit the weakness of its opponent.
Alabama's weakness is certainly its offensive line.
We saw this unit struggle to protect its quarterback and to play competently in general.
A key question for this game is, therefore, whether Wisconsin has the quality in its defensive line to take advantage of Alabama's vulnerable offensive line.
Wisconsin's Defensive Line
The answer to this question is a resounding "no."
During its offseason, Wisconsin had seven defensive linemen depart.
Its top returning defensive lineman was James Thompson Jr.
For starters, Thompson Jr. was not impactful last year. He mustered all of 29 total tackles and three sacks.
This year, he also suffered a season-ending injury, making Wisconsin currently even thinner along its defensive line.
Sadly, Wisconsin's defensive line depended on Thompson Jr. in order to have some semblance of starting-quality competence. He was the only returning somewhat decent defensive linemen that they had.
The top two returning defensive linemen, after the now injured Thompson Jr., combined last year for only 25 tackles and one sack in a combined total of 545 snaps.
On top of everything else, Wisconsin's defensive linemen is headed by a new position coach this year.
This unit is starting from scratch in severe senses.
Alabama's Offensive Line Will Improve
Anyhow, Alabama's offensive line also promises to improve relative to its Week 2 performance.
Starting left tackle Kadyn Proctor has, according to Alabama's head coach, a good chance of returning to the starting lineup.
The Crimson Tide are figuring out, in the meantime, who their most competent tackles are.
It took until the fourth quarter of their last game for them to realize that, at right tackle, Wilkin Formby belongs on the bench and that Elijah Pritchett belongs on the field in his place.
Wisconsin's Porous Run Defense
For all of Alabama's issues with its offensive line, it has, already, still been running the ball extremely well.
The Crimson Tide rank sixth with 264 rushing yards per game.
Skeptics will insist that Alabama has merely thrived against weak opponents.
However, Wisconsin's run defense must certainly qualify as weak.
Despite facing soft tests from approximately 20-point underdogs, the Badgers have allowed opposing running backs to perform well.
Western Michigan running back Jalen Buckley ran 16 times for 64 yards and two touchdowns against the Badgers.
Most recently and more alarmingly, the Badgers conceded 83 rushing yards on 6.9 YPC to South Dakota running back Charles Pierre Jr.
Wisconsin's run defense is porous not only because its defensive line lacks quality.
Its linebackers are also struggling to be competent. For example, they struggle with over-pursuing and generally with getting into position and taking the proper angles.
Their deficiencies allow opposing runners to thrive consistently and to achieve chunk plays.
Wisconsin's Unreliable Offense
Despite the softness of its competition thus far, Wisconsin on offense has had trouble generating chunk plays.
Folks who want to bet on Wisconsin will want to see this team, obviously, score enough points to cover the spread.
However, the Badgers lack matchup advantages, and they haven't shown that they can be reliable especially against a defense like Alabama's.
Regarding the former, the Crimson Tide have one significant weakness on defense that opposing teams will want to be able to exploit.
Due to its scheme, Alabama is going to be vulnerable to opposing quarterbacks who run the ball.
South Florida, in Week 2, took advantage of this weakness when its quarterback failed to pass efficiently but still ran for 108 yards – although, despite taking advantage of Alabama's vulnerability, the Bulls still failed to exceed 16 points.
Unfortunately for the Badgers, Wisconsin's starting quarterback does not pose any kind of threat on the ground.
Tyler Van Dyke, in his career, is averaging less than a half-yard per carry.
Regarding the latter point that Wisconsin's offense is unthreatening in general, we can use recent results to make our point roughly.
The Badgers in Week 1 managed 28 points against a Western Michigan squad that allowed 49 points in the first three quarters to another Big Ten team, Ohio State.
Wisconsin in Week 2 mustered fewer points against South Dakota than Missouri achieved in the first half when it played South Dakota last season.
Alabama's Stout Front Seven
The quality and talent level of Alabama's defense places it on another planet than either Western Michigan's defense or South Dakota's.
After ranking 18th in total defense last year, Alabama's defense looks solid once again, as it has allowed a total of 16 points in two weeks.
Alabama returns a high level of talent, ability, proven experience, and hopeful youth to its defensive line.
The Crimson Tide's linebacking corps features All-SEC Preseason 2024 selections Deontae Lawson and Jihaad Campbell.
This front seven will overwhelm a Wisconsin rush attack that, in terms of YPC, remains statistically mediocre.
It is a deep group of running backs but not a threatening one.
Wisconsin's Passing Outlook
Alabama's secondary is likewise permeated with five-star talent.
Against a Crimson Tide group that ranks 19th against the pass, I don't see Van Dyke – a decent quarterback who has been nothing more than serviceable in terms of efficiency – posing a threat.
Van Dyke is barely managing a 60 percent completion rate.
When facing stronger competition, his tendency to turn the ball over will likewise show up. He threw twelve interceptions last season.
Under its new defensive scheme, Alabama's defensive backs are in great position to intercept passes.
Van Dyke often makes poor decisions and struggles with important things like anticipation.
Of course, he suffers from characteristic immobility and will also struggle, in the first place, to get passes off in the face of Alabama's vicious pass-rushers, which includes up-and-coming star
Qua Russaw, who is displaying his five-star talent with two sacks so far.
Alabama's Pass Attack
Whereas Wisconsin's offense will struggle to grind out possessions with its lack of quality in its rush and pass attacks, Alabama will be able to complement its tremendous advantage on the ground with its pass attack.
The Crimson Tide feature a Heisman contender in Jalen Milroe and a ridiculous amount of talent – with great speed and size – in its wide receiving corps.
This group is waiting for breakout stars. Kobe Prentice, with his sub-4.4. speed, is finally getting a chance.
Former five-star recruit Ryan Williams is already displaying his big-play talent. He has 207 receiving yards in two games.
There are a lot of wide receivers with which Milroe can exploit a thin Badgers cornerback room.
Wisconsin's secondary will rely too much on a former D-II guy in Nyzier Fourqurean, who allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete passes with 66-percent frequency last year.
This is largely the same group as the one that ranked below-average in the Big Ten – which is not known for its quarterbacking quality – against the pass.
Again, there is little show of quality here with which to suggest that Wisconsin can contain Alabama's tremendous talent in its passing game, which with its big-armed quarterback and big-play threats at receiver is demonstrably capable of scoring in any moment.
Takeaway
Alabama's running back group will steamroll Wisconsin's vulnerable front seven.
But also the Badgers' thin cornerback room will struggle to contain Alabama's impressive number of threats in its passing attack.
The Crimson Tide will sustain drives consistently and will use big plays to score with ease.
In order to cover the spread, Wisconsin's offense will require more than a pulse.
But its mediocre rush attack, facing Alabama's stacked front seven, will put too much on the shoulders of Tyler Van Dyke.
Having to press from behind is a terrible thing for a turnover-prone quarterback.
Van Dyke, when he doesn't turn the ball over or face too much pressure from Bama's pass-rushing prowess, will try to overcome his deficient passing traits to lean on a single wide receiver – Will Pauling.
Wisconsin's quarterback is too inefficient, too inexplosive, and lacks sufficient support against an Alabama secondary that is helping to position the Tide as one of the top pass defenses.
Scoring will be drastically easier for the Crimson Tide, while oddsmakers are also underestimating how severely various deficiencies plague the 0-2 ATS Badgers.
Best Bet: Alabama -15.5 at -110 with BetOnline
