Alabama vs. Texas A&M College Football Week 6 Picks
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday, October 9, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET (CBS) at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas
Recency Bias
Recency bias is a phenomenon whereby people attach an exaggerated level of significance to the most recent games.
This phenomenon tends to affect bettors negatively because, in succumbing to recency bias, they fail to perceive the explainably high degree of variance that exists from week to week.
Moreover, they fail to observe the intricacies that explain the results of single games.
So, in order to make sure that the following analysis is not distorted by recency bias, I will talk about what happened in last week's games and why last week's games are not indicative of what will happen this Saturday.
Downfall of the Aggies?
Entering its game against Arkansas, Texas A&M was ranked seventh and undefeated.
Since the top four teams make the College Football Playoffs, the Aggies were on the verge of being in position to qualify.
However, their hopes were obliterated by what has turned out to be a very good Razorback squad, which was ranked eighth before being pummeled by an even better Georgia team.
Last week, Texas A&M lost to Mississippi State. Undoubtedly, it's a bad loss.
Because of recency bias, I suspect that sundry bettors are looking at this last Aggie loss plus the loss before and thinking that the Aggies are done for when the Tide visit College Station.
But there are two things to note about this last Aggie loss: Texas A&M was likely in letdown mode after having its season goal dashed by Arkansas.
Secondly, such a bad performance is nothing new when the Crimson Tide are on deck.
Last year, for example, the Aggies were favored by 31.5 points against lowly Vanderbilt.
Texas A&M barely won that game as it was looking ahead to its next opponent, which was Alabama.
Similarly, two seasons ago, the Aggies beat what was then a very bad Arkansas squad by only four points. They easily failed to cover the 23-point spread as its next game was against Alabama.
History suggests, therefore, that we should accord minimal significance to a bad Aggie performance when its next opponent is the Crimson Tide.
Since losing to the Razorbacks is by no means embarrassing this year, there is no reason for so many people to be down on the Aggies.
As for the Crimson Tide, they obliterated Ole Miss, beating the Rebels 42-7 before allowing two meaningless touchdowns.
Media talking heads had been blabbering all week about how flawed the Crimson Tide defense is after almost losing to Florida.
As many games show, like a blowout of Vanderbilt a few years ago, Nick Saban's Tide are great at using free ammunition.
Alabama was therefore amped to prove itself against a popularly backed underdog.
It's easy, too easy, to relish the fact that Bama only needs to win by 18 after beating highly-ranked Ole Miss by 21 last week.
But this game will have a different dynamic to it, especially at notoriously raucous Kyle Field, which in recent years (specifically 2017) has proven to be a difficult place for Saban's Tide.
Texas A&M Ground Game
Given its team's two recent losses, one may easily overlook the crucial respects in which the Aggie offense has actually improved.
This improvement was easy to foresee given the combination of hope-inspiring talent and bleak inexperience -- partly in terms of games played, partly in terms of games played with other Aggie players -- on the offensive line.
This combination produced some positive moments, but tremendous inconsistency and underachievement.
Now we see the opposite from what is a strong two-back system driven by Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane.
Spiller is very strong, compactly sized, energetic as he drives with his legs, and uniquely difficult to bring down.
Leading the Aggie ground game, he has found consistency producing 7.8 YPC against New Mexico, 7.9 against Arkansas' highly-ranked run defense, and 6.3 against Mississippi State.
Alabama's near-loss at Florida showed that opposing teams can easily cover against Bama just by relying on a good ground game.
Inconsistent Offense vs. Aggie Defense
In streaks and phases, Bryce Young has undoubtedly been great as Bama's quarterback.
But it's not just the Florida game where he showed his inconsistency. In the second half against Ole Miss, he helped the Tide to only 14 second-half points.
As in the Gator game, the Tide offense will repeatedly stall when it has accumulated a meaningful lead. This inconsistency, this difficulty in concentrating, almost cost them in Gainesville, even against Florida's awful secondary.
Whereas Florida ranks 52nd nationally in opposing passer rating, a number that is deceptively flattering because of Gator opponents like South Florida and Kentucky which lack decently efficient passers, the Aggies rank 20th nationally in the category.
Texas A&M boasts physical defensive backs. Its secondary is spearheaded by stalwart, future NFL prospect Myles Jones, whom scouting reports praise for his speed over the top and his ability in press coverage, both of which will be useful assets against Alabama's leader in receiving yards, Jameson Williams.
Best Bet: Aggies +17.5 at -108 with Heritage
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. Texas A&M Aggies
Saturday, October 9, 2021 at 8 p.m. ET (CBS) at Kyle Field in College Station, Texas
Recency Bias
Recency bias is a phenomenon whereby people attach an exaggerated level of significance to the most recent games.
This phenomenon tends to affect bettors negatively because, in succumbing to recency bias, they fail to perceive the explainably high degree of variance that exists from week to week.
Moreover, they fail to observe the intricacies that explain the results of single games.
So, in order to make sure that the following analysis is not distorted by recency bias, I will talk about what happened in last week's games and why last week's games are not indicative of what will happen this Saturday.
Downfall of the Aggies?
Entering its game against Arkansas, Texas A&M was ranked seventh and undefeated.
Since the top four teams make the College Football Playoffs, the Aggies were on the verge of being in position to qualify.
However, their hopes were obliterated by what has turned out to be a very good Razorback squad, which was ranked eighth before being pummeled by an even better Georgia team.
Last week, Texas A&M lost to Mississippi State. Undoubtedly, it's a bad loss.
Because of recency bias, I suspect that sundry bettors are looking at this last Aggie loss plus the loss before and thinking that the Aggies are done for when the Tide visit College Station.
But there are two things to note about this last Aggie loss: Texas A&M was likely in letdown mode after having its season goal dashed by Arkansas.
Secondly, such a bad performance is nothing new when the Crimson Tide are on deck.
Last year, for example, the Aggies were favored by 31.5 points against lowly Vanderbilt.
Texas A&M barely won that game as it was looking ahead to its next opponent, which was Alabama.
Similarly, two seasons ago, the Aggies beat what was then a very bad Arkansas squad by only four points. They easily failed to cover the 23-point spread as its next game was against Alabama.
History suggests, therefore, that we should accord minimal significance to a bad Aggie performance when its next opponent is the Crimson Tide.
Since losing to the Razorbacks is by no means embarrassing this year, there is no reason for so many people to be down on the Aggies.
As for the Crimson Tide, they obliterated Ole Miss, beating the Rebels 42-7 before allowing two meaningless touchdowns.
Media talking heads had been blabbering all week about how flawed the Crimson Tide defense is after almost losing to Florida.
As many games show, like a blowout of Vanderbilt a few years ago, Nick Saban's Tide are great at using free ammunition.
Alabama was therefore amped to prove itself against a popularly backed underdog.
It's easy, too easy, to relish the fact that Bama only needs to win by 18 after beating highly-ranked Ole Miss by 21 last week.
But this game will have a different dynamic to it, especially at notoriously raucous Kyle Field, which in recent years (specifically 2017) has proven to be a difficult place for Saban's Tide.
Texas A&M Ground Game
Given its team's two recent losses, one may easily overlook the crucial respects in which the Aggie offense has actually improved.
This improvement was easy to foresee given the combination of hope-inspiring talent and bleak inexperience -- partly in terms of games played, partly in terms of games played with other Aggie players -- on the offensive line.
This combination produced some positive moments, but tremendous inconsistency and underachievement.
Now we see the opposite from what is a strong two-back system driven by Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane.
Spiller is very strong, compactly sized, energetic as he drives with his legs, and uniquely difficult to bring down.
Leading the Aggie ground game, he has found consistency producing 7.8 YPC against New Mexico, 7.9 against Arkansas' highly-ranked run defense, and 6.3 against Mississippi State.
Alabama's near-loss at Florida showed that opposing teams can easily cover against Bama just by relying on a good ground game.
Inconsistent Offense vs. Aggie Defense
In streaks and phases, Bryce Young has undoubtedly been great as Bama's quarterback.
But it's not just the Florida game where he showed his inconsistency. In the second half against Ole Miss, he helped the Tide to only 14 second-half points.
As in the Gator game, the Tide offense will repeatedly stall when it has accumulated a meaningful lead. This inconsistency, this difficulty in concentrating, almost cost them in Gainesville, even against Florida's awful secondary.
Whereas Florida ranks 52nd nationally in opposing passer rating, a number that is deceptively flattering because of Gator opponents like South Florida and Kentucky which lack decently efficient passers, the Aggies rank 20th nationally in the category.
Texas A&M boasts physical defensive backs. Its secondary is spearheaded by stalwart, future NFL prospect Myles Jones, whom scouting reports praise for his speed over the top and his ability in press coverage, both of which will be useful assets against Alabama's leader in receiving yards, Jameson Williams.
Best Bet: Aggies +17.5 at -108 with Heritage
