Alabama vs. LSU: NCAAF Week 14 Betting Picks and Game Predictions
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers
Saturday, December 5, 2020 at 8 p.m. ET at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Alabama Offense vs. LSU Defense
While the spread may seem high, consider that Alabama has scored over 40 points in all seven games since its season opener.
On the other side, LSU has allowed over 40 points in three games so far: against Mississippi State, Missouri and Auburn.
Mississippi State ranks 116th nationally in scoring offense, as measured by points per game. Missouri ranks 91st in the category and Auburn ranks 76th in the category.
Because Alabama ranks third nationally in averaging 48.5 points per game, it seems clear that Alabama is absolutely capable of exceeding the 40+ points that each of those offenses produced against LSU.
LSU is going to deal with a quality of passing and running that it has not encountered thus far.
Currently, the Tigers rank fourth-to-last in the SEC in rush defense as measured by opposing rush yards per game.
But they’ve had it fairy easy overall because they got to face bottom-feeder Vanderbilt, Mississippi State with its air-rad offense, and Missouri. Missouri, like Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, ranks outside the top 80 nationally in rushing yards per game.
Alabama Rush Offense vs. LSU Run Defense
In its run defense, LSU’s issues are manifold. They lack sufficient physicality, for starters. Auburn, for example, was able to be more physical.
Tiger run defenders found themselves stymied by Auburn's double teams. They couldn’t hold gaps as Auburn’s offensive linemen pulled.
Their struggles with gap responsibility contributed to the 4.7 YPC average that Auburn achieved while attempting 44 rushes.
Alabama, too, is physical. It is led by running back Najee Harris, a bruising 230-pounder who is difficult for opposing defenders to bring down because of his size and strength.
Behind a veteran offensive line, Harris is averaging six YPC.
So it’s not simply a matter of Bama’s rushing offense ranking higher than an Auburn one that decimated LSU’s run defense.
It’s a matter of having the characteristics — like physicality — that evidently plague Tiger run defenders.
Alabama Pass Offense vs. LSU Pass Defense
From its opener, LSU’s pass defense under new defensive coordinator Bo Pelini has been porous.
The Tigers have struggled even with simple things such as understanding coverage assignments, communicating, and being on page with teammates.
With Heisman candidate Mac Jones at quarterback, Alabama will not even need the Tigers to make mistakes in order to exploit them.
Since the season opener, Jones has thrown for over 290 passing yards in every game but one, which was against a Kentucky defense that statistically had one of the best pass defenses last year and that couldn’t stop Alabama’s run game.
That’s what makes Alabama’s offense so lethally versatile: even when Jones has an “off” day, relatively speaking, the Tide can produce 63 points like they did against Kentucky.
Jones can produce his fourth 400-yard passing effort of the season against a Tiger pass defense that ranks 123rd nationally in opposing pass yards per game.
Individually, Jones is stellar partly because of his mechanics. Video footage reveals a pretty quick release, supportive hip movement, and ability to stay upright when delivering a deep ball.
With his good decision-making, he benefits from being in an offense that consistently gives him favorable options.
One thing Alabama likes to do is have wide receivers cross each other in order to perplex the opposing pass defense.
Wide receiver routes will encourage multiple defenders to pursue a single wide receiver in coverage with the result that some wide receivers gain one-on-one match-ups that Jones can exploit.
An already mistake-prone LSU defense will not be able to account for all of the options and favorable match-ups that Alabama’s offense will enjoy.
LSU Offense vs. Alabama Defense
LSU’s top wide receiver, Terrace Marshall Jr., opted out.
He was the offense’s only real weapon.
Quarterback is an uncertainty since initial starter Myles Brennan suffered a season-ending injury.
At running back, the Tigers are one of two SEC teams that do not have a running back who has reached 400 rushing yards yet. The other team is extremely pass-first Mississippi State.
Marshall had 30 more receptions and more than twice as many yards than any other Tiger wide receiver.
Whereas Alabama’s offense generates a lot of chunk plays with the physical Harris and the passing game led by DeVonta Smith — who has already exceeded 1,000 yards receiving this season -- and Mac Jones, LSU struggles to move the ball easily.
The Tigers rank second-to-last in the conference in number of 10+-yard runs. Marshall was also by far the team’s best threat in the vertical passing game.
LSU’s struggle to run the ball is problematic for its pass game because quarterback TJ Finley needs run support.
When LSU scored seven points against Texas A&M and 11 against Auburn, LSU’s ground attack failed to reach 50 rushing yards and Finley only threw interceptions while failing to reach 150 passing yards or to complete more than 55 percent of his pass attempts.
Defensively, Alabama is gelling as a unit. Individual defenders — even less experienced ones — are playing faster and communicating more. They won’t help LSU’s offense by making the mistakes that LSU’s defense will make.
Each of Alabama’s last four opponents failed to reach 20 points because of the Tide’s solidity on every level of its defense.
Revenge
Last year, LSU head coach Ed Orgeron provided Alabama with bulletin board material by ranting disrespectfully against Alabama.
In general, the Tigers conducted themselves terribly in Tuscaloosa, even approaching Crimson Tide recruits in order to ask them to decommit.
Bama players won’t forget LSU’s antics and will be extra motivated to get revenge.
The Verdict
LSU’s meager offense will struggle to reach 10 points against the Crimson Tide’s improved defense.
Alabama, unlike the Tigers, will accrue sundry chunk plays both on the ground and in the air against a porous Tiger defense.
For the above reasons, expect the vengeful Tide to roll in blowout fashion.
Best Bet: Crimson Tide -28.5 at -108 with Heritage
Alabama Crimson Tide vs. LSU Tigers
Saturday, December 5, 2020 at 8 p.m. ET at Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge, Louisiana
Alabama Offense vs. LSU Defense
While the spread may seem high, consider that Alabama has scored over 40 points in all seven games since its season opener.
On the other side, LSU has allowed over 40 points in three games so far: against Mississippi State, Missouri and Auburn.
Mississippi State ranks 116th nationally in scoring offense, as measured by points per game. Missouri ranks 91st in the category and Auburn ranks 76th in the category.
Because Alabama ranks third nationally in averaging 48.5 points per game, it seems clear that Alabama is absolutely capable of exceeding the 40+ points that each of those offenses produced against LSU.
LSU is going to deal with a quality of passing and running that it has not encountered thus far.
Currently, the Tigers rank fourth-to-last in the SEC in rush defense as measured by opposing rush yards per game.
But they’ve had it fairy easy overall because they got to face bottom-feeder Vanderbilt, Mississippi State with its air-rad offense, and Missouri. Missouri, like Vanderbilt and Mississippi State, ranks outside the top 80 nationally in rushing yards per game.
Alabama Rush Offense vs. LSU Run Defense
In its run defense, LSU’s issues are manifold. They lack sufficient physicality, for starters. Auburn, for example, was able to be more physical.
Tiger run defenders found themselves stymied by Auburn's double teams. They couldn’t hold gaps as Auburn’s offensive linemen pulled.
Their struggles with gap responsibility contributed to the 4.7 YPC average that Auburn achieved while attempting 44 rushes.
Alabama, too, is physical. It is led by running back Najee Harris, a bruising 230-pounder who is difficult for opposing defenders to bring down because of his size and strength.
Behind a veteran offensive line, Harris is averaging six YPC.
So it’s not simply a matter of Bama’s rushing offense ranking higher than an Auburn one that decimated LSU’s run defense.
It’s a matter of having the characteristics — like physicality — that evidently plague Tiger run defenders.
Alabama Pass Offense vs. LSU Pass Defense
From its opener, LSU’s pass defense under new defensive coordinator Bo Pelini has been porous.
The Tigers have struggled even with simple things such as understanding coverage assignments, communicating, and being on page with teammates.
With Heisman candidate Mac Jones at quarterback, Alabama will not even need the Tigers to make mistakes in order to exploit them.
Since the season opener, Jones has thrown for over 290 passing yards in every game but one, which was against a Kentucky defense that statistically had one of the best pass defenses last year and that couldn’t stop Alabama’s run game.
That’s what makes Alabama’s offense so lethally versatile: even when Jones has an “off” day, relatively speaking, the Tide can produce 63 points like they did against Kentucky.
Jones can produce his fourth 400-yard passing effort of the season against a Tiger pass defense that ranks 123rd nationally in opposing pass yards per game.
Individually, Jones is stellar partly because of his mechanics. Video footage reveals a pretty quick release, supportive hip movement, and ability to stay upright when delivering a deep ball.
With his good decision-making, he benefits from being in an offense that consistently gives him favorable options.
One thing Alabama likes to do is have wide receivers cross each other in order to perplex the opposing pass defense.
Wide receiver routes will encourage multiple defenders to pursue a single wide receiver in coverage with the result that some wide receivers gain one-on-one match-ups that Jones can exploit.
An already mistake-prone LSU defense will not be able to account for all of the options and favorable match-ups that Alabama’s offense will enjoy.
LSU Offense vs. Alabama Defense
LSU’s top wide receiver, Terrace Marshall Jr., opted out.
He was the offense’s only real weapon.
Quarterback is an uncertainty since initial starter Myles Brennan suffered a season-ending injury.
At running back, the Tigers are one of two SEC teams that do not have a running back who has reached 400 rushing yards yet. The other team is extremely pass-first Mississippi State.
Marshall had 30 more receptions and more than twice as many yards than any other Tiger wide receiver.
Whereas Alabama’s offense generates a lot of chunk plays with the physical Harris and the passing game led by DeVonta Smith — who has already exceeded 1,000 yards receiving this season -- and Mac Jones, LSU struggles to move the ball easily.
The Tigers rank second-to-last in the conference in number of 10+-yard runs. Marshall was also by far the team’s best threat in the vertical passing game.
LSU’s struggle to run the ball is problematic for its pass game because quarterback TJ Finley needs run support.
When LSU scored seven points against Texas A&M and 11 against Auburn, LSU’s ground attack failed to reach 50 rushing yards and Finley only threw interceptions while failing to reach 150 passing yards or to complete more than 55 percent of his pass attempts.
Defensively, Alabama is gelling as a unit. Individual defenders — even less experienced ones — are playing faster and communicating more. They won’t help LSU’s offense by making the mistakes that LSU’s defense will make.
Each of Alabama’s last four opponents failed to reach 20 points because of the Tide’s solidity on every level of its defense.
Revenge
Last year, LSU head coach Ed Orgeron provided Alabama with bulletin board material by ranting disrespectfully against Alabama.
In general, the Tigers conducted themselves terribly in Tuscaloosa, even approaching Crimson Tide recruits in order to ask them to decommit.
Bama players won’t forget LSU’s antics and will be extra motivated to get revenge.
The Verdict
LSU’s meager offense will struggle to reach 10 points against the Crimson Tide’s improved defense.
Alabama, unlike the Tigers, will accrue sundry chunk plays both on the ground and in the air against a porous Tiger defense.
For the above reasons, expect the vengeful Tide to roll in blowout fashion.
Best Bet: Crimson Tide -28.5 at -108 with Heritage
