Jimmydafreak
Pretty much a regular
I suppose I would be remiss if I did not weigh in on the national championship game. That said, there is simply no way I can reduce all of my thoughts on this game to writing here. If I did, it would be a mini novel (and it probably will be anyhow). So for the sake of brevity, I will try to hit what I think are the most salient points.
This is the matchup I have been rooting for all season, so I’m very happy to see it come to fruition. I have rooted for an Alabama/Oregon finale in the past, but it never came about.
I have explained this before, but it bears repeating. There is a huge difference between defending Michigan State’s pro-style offense versus Clemson’s spread offense. Michigan State is a smash mouth team that likes to beat you up in a phone booth. The problem for Michigan State is that Alabama is much better at that style of play than the Spartans are. In fact, they are significantly better at it than anyone in the nation. We saw that in the 2011 with Kirk Cousins under center, and we saw a re-run of the same movie this season with Conner Cook under center. And if they play again next season, the result will again be similar. That is why I posted that Alabama was the easiest bet of the bowl season, because the outcome was so predictable.
Clemson is a completely different animal offensively. As we all know, they are a HUNH team with an extremely talented and explosive quarterback in Deshaun Watson. Clemson will be all about spreading Alabama out, getting Clemson's skill players in space against Alabama's secondary and relying on Watson to make the proper reads. Clemson will try to get the snap count up and play at a high tempo, and hope that pays dividends late in the game.
Clemson frequently utilizes run, pass option plays (RPO) which account for a lot of their big plays. Watson makes a simple pre-snap read, and reacts accordingly. If, for example, the quarterback is unaccounted for in the defensive alignment, he will usually take off and run. Watson has been a big weapon in the Clemson running game all season, and I don’t think anything will change in this game – QB draws and QB power will happen.
But like I cautioned in my Alabama/Texas write-up a few years ago, I said that if Texas insists on running Colt McCoy between the tackles, there is a reasonable chance he won’t finish the game. And what happened? The very first time he did it, he got knocked out of the game. The same thing applies here. There is a reason NFL teams don’t send their QBs on kamikaze missions between the tackles. And make no mistake about it; Alabama’s front 7 is an NFL front 7 (all of them) – the very kind of front 7 that NFL coaches don’t let their QBs run into. I honestly hope it doesn’t happen, but if Clemson insists on repeatedly running Watson between the tackles, don’t be shocked if he finds himself on the sidelines watching his backup finish the game under center in his stead.
So how does Alabama prepare for RPO? They do so by making one of the options happen. In other words, the defense will dictate to Watson what the read is, give him the play, and then attack that choice.
You often hear the mantra that a HUNH offense with an athletic running QB is Alabama’s Kryptonite. If you are betting on Clemson based on that belief, a) you haven’t been paying attention, and b) you deserve to lose your money and probably will. Alabama has played 7 or 8 teams that run HUNH, and they have completely shut all of them down. Here’s a list of how some of the QBs Alabama has faced this season have fared.
Chad Kelly - Ole Miss - 8/21
Greyson Lambert - Georgia - 6/1
Brandon Allen - Arkansas - 7/6
Kyler Murray - Texas A&M - 2/4
Joshua Dobbs - Tennessee - 16/19
Brandon Harris - LSU - 5/20
Jeremy Johnson - Auburn - 6/-18
Dak Prescott - Mississippi State - 26/14
Treon Harris - Florida - 11/-4
Moreover, Alabama leads the country in opposing QBR, holding opposing QBs to a rating of just 12.1. That is the best rating by any FBS defense in the last ten years.
I’m sure it will be argued, and perhaps rightly so, that Deshaun Watson and Clemson are much better that any of the other QBs/teams that Alabama has faced this season. Maybe so, but what you must understand, far from this type of offensive scheme being Alabama’s Kryptonite, Alabama has the ideal defense to slow/shutdown HUNH offenses like Clemson’s down. In fact if I could pick any defense in the nation to shut down a HUNH offense I would take Alabama, and whoever is second is far behind. That is so because Alabama’s defense is specifically built from the ground up to do just that. One key change that Saban and Kirby Smart made in response to having to face HUNH offenses, was to get rid of the big run-stuffing safety’s, and replacing them with 5* caliber cornerbacks. And when Alabama plays a base nickel like they will most of this game, they will have five really talented cornerbacks on the field at the same time.
Of course when offensive coordinators see 5 corners and 6 in the box this would dictate run. The problem for every team that has faced Alabama this season is that those 6 are so deep, so talented, so disciplined, so gap-sound and so well coached that teams have not even been able to run the ball against even Alabama’s nickel defense. Please understand what I’m saying here. Alabama has shut down the running game of every single HUNH offense they have faced playing nickel! If that happens in this game, and to a certain extent I think it will, Clemson is pretty much dead and stinking offensively. That will force Watson to throw into tight windows, and force him to make plays in the teeth of the defensive scheme. That I believe will lead to Watson making mistakes.
The one thing I have noticed from watching Clemson games this week is that, outside of maybe Boston College, no team has been able to shut down Clemson’s running attack. And because of that, Clemson has not been involved in a single game this season where Watson was forced to throw the ball to win. I absolutely think that will change Monday night. Alabama holds opponents to 2.3 yards per rush, and 53.5% of a teams’ yards per carry average – an absolutely absurd number. If that holds true in this game, that would put Clemson around 2.66 per carry, and that’s simply not enough to keep the sticks moving, or keep the defense honest.
Spread teams are dependent upon consistently getting reliable yardage to move the sticks. When defenses are able to minimize the easy yardage the HUNH offenses are so dependent on, rather than exhaust the opposing defense with fast-paced sustained drives, they just hurry up and punt.
Another thing I noticed from watching film this week is that the linebacking Clemson faced in the ACC was quite poor. Much of Clemson’s success has come by way of isolating a receiver or back on a linebacker, or through the zone read. It is not a stretch to say that Alabama’s linebackers are far superior to anything Clemson has faced all season, so I think they will find the going much tougher than what they are accustomed to.
Another thing worth pointing out is that competition matters. Clemson’s stats were accumulated against ACC teams, and If the bowl games tell us anything, they tell us that the SEC defenses that Alabama faced are significantly better than the defenses Clemson faced. Look no further than the results of the bowl teams Clemson played (1 & 5 bowl record) versus the results of the bowl teams Alabama played (8 & 3 bowl record). And for the most part the bowl teams Clemson played got blown out, while the bowl teams Alabama faced blew their opponents out.
Because this write-up has gotten so long already, I will only briefly discuss Alabama’s offense versus Clemson’s defense. I understand that Clemson has a very talented front 4 (linebackers not so much), and a very talented secondary. That said, Clemson’s defense is really not much different from what Alabama saw week in and week out in conference play. I will also note that Clemson has not faced anything remotely on the level of Alabama’s offensive line/running back combination. That will in turn most likely expose Clemson’s biggest vunerability – their complete lack of depth in their front 7. Sure they’ll hang tough in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half like many teams have done, but will eventually get caught up in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half meat grinder as they inevitably wear down.
I expect Clemson to take their chances with their very talented cornerbacks to play bump-and-run coverage against Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart, and hope the rest of the defense can slow down the Derrick Henry freight train. This probably won’t be too different than what Michigan State tried to do, which is take away Henry and force Jake Coker to beat them. The big advantage Clemson has here is that they have a far better secondary than Michigan State, so it’ll be interesting to see how Jake Coker versus man coverage will play out. I do know one thing. Lane Kiffin will take what the defense gives him, and I suspect he will attack and shaky Clemson linebacking corps in the passing game with guys like O.J. Howard and Richard Mullaney.
My take on this game is that Alabama’s defensive line, linebackers and secondary will be vastly superior to anything Clemson has faced all season, and they will do what they have done all season – shut down the run, push the pocket up the middle, and smoother receivers. They will shut down Clemson’s running attack, contain Deshaun Watson, and force him to become something he’s not – a pocket passer. Watson is a one read and run quarterback. When Alabama shuts down Watson’s running lanes and locks down his receivers like they did to Michigan State, I think we will see him – like Connor Cook - get frustrated and start to force things, and that will be the beginning of the end for Clemson.
The real problem for Clemson’s offense and defense is that, unless they’ve been practicing against the Carolina Panthers on their off week, there is simply no way for them to prepare for the physicality and ferocity of what they will encounter Monday night. Like I said, Clemson will probably hang tough for the first 30 minutes or so , but will simply not be able to withstand the onslaught in the trenches on either side of the ball for 60 minutes.
The final score of this game will be directly related to Deshaun’s frustration level. If it is high, and he makes a bunch of mistakes, this one could get ugly. I do, however, think Clemson is too good offensively not to make some plays and score some points, although I don’t think it will be many. I look for a final score of something along the lines of 34-13 with 17 being Clemson’s absolute high-water mark offensively.
My Plays:
Alabama -6.5 vs. Clemson
Alabama (2[SUP]nd[/SUP] Half) vs. Clemson
Clemson Team Total UNDER 21.5
Alabama Team Total OVER 28.5
Alabama -21.5 @ +500 vs. Clemson
This is the matchup I have been rooting for all season, so I’m very happy to see it come to fruition. I have rooted for an Alabama/Oregon finale in the past, but it never came about.
I have explained this before, but it bears repeating. There is a huge difference between defending Michigan State’s pro-style offense versus Clemson’s spread offense. Michigan State is a smash mouth team that likes to beat you up in a phone booth. The problem for Michigan State is that Alabama is much better at that style of play than the Spartans are. In fact, they are significantly better at it than anyone in the nation. We saw that in the 2011 with Kirk Cousins under center, and we saw a re-run of the same movie this season with Conner Cook under center. And if they play again next season, the result will again be similar. That is why I posted that Alabama was the easiest bet of the bowl season, because the outcome was so predictable.
Clemson is a completely different animal offensively. As we all know, they are a HUNH team with an extremely talented and explosive quarterback in Deshaun Watson. Clemson will be all about spreading Alabama out, getting Clemson's skill players in space against Alabama's secondary and relying on Watson to make the proper reads. Clemson will try to get the snap count up and play at a high tempo, and hope that pays dividends late in the game.
Clemson frequently utilizes run, pass option plays (RPO) which account for a lot of their big plays. Watson makes a simple pre-snap read, and reacts accordingly. If, for example, the quarterback is unaccounted for in the defensive alignment, he will usually take off and run. Watson has been a big weapon in the Clemson running game all season, and I don’t think anything will change in this game – QB draws and QB power will happen.
But like I cautioned in my Alabama/Texas write-up a few years ago, I said that if Texas insists on running Colt McCoy between the tackles, there is a reasonable chance he won’t finish the game. And what happened? The very first time he did it, he got knocked out of the game. The same thing applies here. There is a reason NFL teams don’t send their QBs on kamikaze missions between the tackles. And make no mistake about it; Alabama’s front 7 is an NFL front 7 (all of them) – the very kind of front 7 that NFL coaches don’t let their QBs run into. I honestly hope it doesn’t happen, but if Clemson insists on repeatedly running Watson between the tackles, don’t be shocked if he finds himself on the sidelines watching his backup finish the game under center in his stead.
So how does Alabama prepare for RPO? They do so by making one of the options happen. In other words, the defense will dictate to Watson what the read is, give him the play, and then attack that choice.
You often hear the mantra that a HUNH offense with an athletic running QB is Alabama’s Kryptonite. If you are betting on Clemson based on that belief, a) you haven’t been paying attention, and b) you deserve to lose your money and probably will. Alabama has played 7 or 8 teams that run HUNH, and they have completely shut all of them down. Here’s a list of how some of the QBs Alabama has faced this season have fared.
Chad Kelly - Ole Miss - 8/21
Greyson Lambert - Georgia - 6/1
Brandon Allen - Arkansas - 7/6
Kyler Murray - Texas A&M - 2/4
Joshua Dobbs - Tennessee - 16/19
Brandon Harris - LSU - 5/20
Jeremy Johnson - Auburn - 6/-18
Dak Prescott - Mississippi State - 26/14
Treon Harris - Florida - 11/-4
Moreover, Alabama leads the country in opposing QBR, holding opposing QBs to a rating of just 12.1. That is the best rating by any FBS defense in the last ten years.
I’m sure it will be argued, and perhaps rightly so, that Deshaun Watson and Clemson are much better that any of the other QBs/teams that Alabama has faced this season. Maybe so, but what you must understand, far from this type of offensive scheme being Alabama’s Kryptonite, Alabama has the ideal defense to slow/shutdown HUNH offenses like Clemson’s down. In fact if I could pick any defense in the nation to shut down a HUNH offense I would take Alabama, and whoever is second is far behind. That is so because Alabama’s defense is specifically built from the ground up to do just that. One key change that Saban and Kirby Smart made in response to having to face HUNH offenses, was to get rid of the big run-stuffing safety’s, and replacing them with 5* caliber cornerbacks. And when Alabama plays a base nickel like they will most of this game, they will have five really talented cornerbacks on the field at the same time.
Of course when offensive coordinators see 5 corners and 6 in the box this would dictate run. The problem for every team that has faced Alabama this season is that those 6 are so deep, so talented, so disciplined, so gap-sound and so well coached that teams have not even been able to run the ball against even Alabama’s nickel defense. Please understand what I’m saying here. Alabama has shut down the running game of every single HUNH offense they have faced playing nickel! If that happens in this game, and to a certain extent I think it will, Clemson is pretty much dead and stinking offensively. That will force Watson to throw into tight windows, and force him to make plays in the teeth of the defensive scheme. That I believe will lead to Watson making mistakes.
The one thing I have noticed from watching Clemson games this week is that, outside of maybe Boston College, no team has been able to shut down Clemson’s running attack. And because of that, Clemson has not been involved in a single game this season where Watson was forced to throw the ball to win. I absolutely think that will change Monday night. Alabama holds opponents to 2.3 yards per rush, and 53.5% of a teams’ yards per carry average – an absolutely absurd number. If that holds true in this game, that would put Clemson around 2.66 per carry, and that’s simply not enough to keep the sticks moving, or keep the defense honest.
Spread teams are dependent upon consistently getting reliable yardage to move the sticks. When defenses are able to minimize the easy yardage the HUNH offenses are so dependent on, rather than exhaust the opposing defense with fast-paced sustained drives, they just hurry up and punt.
Another thing I noticed from watching film this week is that the linebacking Clemson faced in the ACC was quite poor. Much of Clemson’s success has come by way of isolating a receiver or back on a linebacker, or through the zone read. It is not a stretch to say that Alabama’s linebackers are far superior to anything Clemson has faced all season, so I think they will find the going much tougher than what they are accustomed to.
Another thing worth pointing out is that competition matters. Clemson’s stats were accumulated against ACC teams, and If the bowl games tell us anything, they tell us that the SEC defenses that Alabama faced are significantly better than the defenses Clemson faced. Look no further than the results of the bowl teams Clemson played (1 & 5 bowl record) versus the results of the bowl teams Alabama played (8 & 3 bowl record). And for the most part the bowl teams Clemson played got blown out, while the bowl teams Alabama faced blew their opponents out.
Because this write-up has gotten so long already, I will only briefly discuss Alabama’s offense versus Clemson’s defense. I understand that Clemson has a very talented front 4 (linebackers not so much), and a very talented secondary. That said, Clemson’s defense is really not much different from what Alabama saw week in and week out in conference play. I will also note that Clemson has not faced anything remotely on the level of Alabama’s offensive line/running back combination. That will in turn most likely expose Clemson’s biggest vunerability – their complete lack of depth in their front 7. Sure they’ll hang tough in the 1[SUP]st[/SUP] half like many teams have done, but will eventually get caught up in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half meat grinder as they inevitably wear down.
I expect Clemson to take their chances with their very talented cornerbacks to play bump-and-run coverage against Calvin Ridley and ArDarius Stewart, and hope the rest of the defense can slow down the Derrick Henry freight train. This probably won’t be too different than what Michigan State tried to do, which is take away Henry and force Jake Coker to beat them. The big advantage Clemson has here is that they have a far better secondary than Michigan State, so it’ll be interesting to see how Jake Coker versus man coverage will play out. I do know one thing. Lane Kiffin will take what the defense gives him, and I suspect he will attack and shaky Clemson linebacking corps in the passing game with guys like O.J. Howard and Richard Mullaney.
My take on this game is that Alabama’s defensive line, linebackers and secondary will be vastly superior to anything Clemson has faced all season, and they will do what they have done all season – shut down the run, push the pocket up the middle, and smoother receivers. They will shut down Clemson’s running attack, contain Deshaun Watson, and force him to become something he’s not – a pocket passer. Watson is a one read and run quarterback. When Alabama shuts down Watson’s running lanes and locks down his receivers like they did to Michigan State, I think we will see him – like Connor Cook - get frustrated and start to force things, and that will be the beginning of the end for Clemson.
The real problem for Clemson’s offense and defense is that, unless they’ve been practicing against the Carolina Panthers on their off week, there is simply no way for them to prepare for the physicality and ferocity of what they will encounter Monday night. Like I said, Clemson will probably hang tough for the first 30 minutes or so , but will simply not be able to withstand the onslaught in the trenches on either side of the ball for 60 minutes.
The final score of this game will be directly related to Deshaun’s frustration level. If it is high, and he makes a bunch of mistakes, this one could get ugly. I do, however, think Clemson is too good offensively not to make some plays and score some points, although I don’t think it will be many. I look for a final score of something along the lines of 34-13 with 17 being Clemson’s absolute high-water mark offensively.
My Plays:
Alabama -6.5 vs. Clemson
Alabama (2[SUP]nd[/SUP] Half) vs. Clemson
Clemson Team Total UNDER 21.5
Alabama Team Total OVER 28.5
Alabama -21.5 @ +500 vs. Clemson
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