Alabama v. Clemson Discussion

Frank Costanza

Frank Costanza

Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
I'll cheat with a cut and paste for starters:


Here are seven things to know about the title game:

History lesson: It hasn't been pretty for Clemson. Alabama leads the all-time series 12-3 and has won the past 12 meetings. Clemson's last win came in 1905, and most of the outcomes haven't been close. Alabama has claimed the past three games by a combined score of 128-23. The Tide also posted four consecutive shutouts between 1934 and 1966, and blanked Clemson seven times in the 15 meetings. The teams haven't played since the 2008 opener, when Nick Saban was in his second season and Dabo Swinney was still Clemson's wide receivers coach, weeks from being named interim head coach after Tommy Bowden's resignation. Alabama beat Clemson 34-10 that day at the Georgia Dome, holding the Tigers to zero rushing yards and only 188 total yards. Before that, the Tide and Tigers last played in 1975. The teams have only one extended series, meeting each year from 1966-69. The series began in 1900, when John Heisman coached Clemson.

Best individual matchup: Alabama wide receiver Calvin Ridley vs. Clemson cornerback Mackensie Alexander. Ridley has helped fill the massive void left by All-American Amari Cooper, leading the Tide in receptions (83), receiving yards (1,031) and receiving touchdowns (seven) while breaking Cooper's freshman receiving-yards record. Since Alabama's Week 3 loss to Ole Miss, Ridley has led the team in targets in 10 of 11 games. He faces one of the nation's most complete cornerbacks in Alexander, a master tactician (and smack talker) who containedSterling Shepard in the semifinal after being assigned to the Oklahoma star wide receiver. There's no doubt Ridley will be Alexander's top priority in the title game.
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</figure></aside>Position group you need to know: Clemson's defensive line. You will hear a bunch of justified praise for Alabama's defensive front, quite possibly the best collection Saban has ever had. But Clemson's line shouldn't be overshadowed by any group. The Tigers had to completely reset after losing All-American Vic Beasley and others, but they held up well this season. Their depth showed up in the semifinal after All-America end Shaq Lawson (23.5 tackles for loss, 10.5 sacks) suffered a knee injury in the first quarter. Lawson says he will play in the title game, but get to know names such as end Kevin Dodd(18.5 tackles for loss, nine sacks) and tackle Carlos Watkins (6.5 tackles for loss, 3.5 sacks). They will be big factors as Clemson faces Heisman Trophy winner

Biggest mismatch: Special teams. Clemson brought its guts to South Florida and turned momentum in the semifinal with a fake punt pass from Andy Teasdall to 322-pound defensive tackle Christian Wilkins. But it's still likelier that the kicking game hurts Clemson against Alabama. Clemson ranks 126th out of 127 FBS teams in expected points added through special teams (minus-45.31), mainly because its coverage teams struggle. That's troublesome against Alabama, which ranks 26th nationally in EPA through special teams (19.8) and boasts one of the nation's best punt returners in Cyrus Jones, who averages 12.6 yards per runback with four touchdowns, including one against Michigan State in the semifinal. An ACC coach recently said of Clemson's special teams, "It could kill them. That could be the difference if somebody gets them on it." Alabama could be that team.

What should worry Alabama: Deshaun Watson is the type of quarterback who gives the Tide problems. The Clemson sophomore has eclipsed 100 rushing yards in five of his past six games and is averaging 107.7 rush yards per game and 5.92 yards per carry during that span. Of the past six quarterbacks who beat Alabama -- Chad Kelly, Cardale Jones, Bo Wallace, Trevor Knight, Nick Marshall and Johnny Manziel -- only one (Wallace) averaged fewer than 4 yards a carry in that season. Knight, Marshall and Manziel each averaged more than 6 yards per carry. Watson poses not only a run threat but also a deep passing threat, where Alabama has been vulnerable at times. According to ESPN Stats & Info, Watson contributed 11.1 more points to his scoring margin against Oklahoma than an average quarterback would with the same number of plays -- the most by a quarterback in a BCS title game or playoff game since Texas' Vince Young against USC in 2006.
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What should worry Clemson: Alabama's red zone defense. Everything about the Tide defense is a concern, but Alabama is particularly stingy in the red zone. The Tide lead the nation in fewest red zone drives allowed (25) despite playing one more game than all but 16 teams. Alabama is tied for second nationally in fewest red zone touchdowns allowed with 11. Remember, Clemson got away with poor red zone efficiency in the semifinal, producing only 13 points on four trips to Oklahoma's red zone in the first half. Clemson is just 65th nationally in red zone touchdown percentage (60.7 percent of drives). And while the Tigers have 24 touchdowns on plays of 25 yards or longer, Alabama allowed only nine touchdowns on plays longer than 25 yards, two of which were punt returns.

X factors: Clemson tight end Jordan Leggett and Alabama wide receiverRichard Mullaney both could play significant roles. The 6-foot-5, 255-pound Leggett is third on the team in receptions (35) and fourth in receiving yards (447), but he leads Clemson in touchdown catches with seven. He had 101 receiving yards against Florida State. Mullaney, a graduate transfer from Oregon State, is second on the team in touchdown receptions (five) and third in total receptions (37). He had three receptions for 53 yards against Michigan State. On defense, Clemson's Cordrea Tankersley is often overshadowed by Alexander, but he leads the team in interceptions (five) and pass breakups (nine). He'll likely match up with ArDarius Stewart, Alabama's No. 2 receiver, in the title game. Like Tankersley, Alabama's Ryan Anderson and Tim Williamsaren't famous names (yet), but both junior outside linebackers are dynamic edge rushers, combining for 16.5 sacks and 24 tackles for loss. The Tide need both players to pressure Watson.




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Nice info

Played Bama -6.5 already.

I think they win by 10 points. To me, its ACC vs SEC. I think the ACC is weak, no defense. If it was Bama against tOSU or Stanford, hell even Mich St, I would have played the dog most likely, but not against an ACC team. Yes the dominated their competition, but again, it was in the ACC.

37-27 Bama
 
This may be significant as Ohio State had the same advantage last year:

- Bama's spring semester does not start until January 13, thus they aren't restricted by the NCAA's 20-hour weekly rule.
- Clemson's semester, on the other hand, starts day after tomorrow. I assume they will plan on adhering to practice limitations. We'll see.
 
wizardofodd said:
Nice info

Played Bama -6.5 already.

I think they win by 10 points. To me, its ACC vs SEC. I think the ACC is weak, no defense. If it was Bama against tOSU or Stanford, hell even Mich St, I would have played the dog most likely, but not against an ACC team. Yes the dominated their competition, but again, it was in the ACC.

37-27 Bama
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That's a dangerous way to cap a game. And if anything the ACC has some really solid defenses.

I heard a lot of pundits taking Oklahoma because an ACC school wouldn't be able to stop a Big 12 offense. That didn't work out so well.
 
No time to address everything I want to right now but will address the one game in which Bama appeared vulnerable this year, Ole Miss.

Just a reminder, as the game was awhile back, Bama had a 29-16 FD edge, 503-433 yardage edge but lost the TO battle 5-0. Ole Miss had scoring drives of:

FG - 2 yards (Bama fumbled opening kickoff)
TD - 26 yards
TD - 18 yards
TD - 87 yards ( This is the play that should have been INT but was the head bounce pass TD)
FG - 49 yards
FG - 51 yards
TD - 82 yards (This was the illegal pop pass with lineman 7 yards downfield that wasn't called)
TD - 31 yards

139 of Kelly's 341 came on those two plays referenced above. Eliminate those and you're looking at 16-31 1TD/1INT for 202. Now, we can't undo those plays and Bama has shown they are susceptible to freakish plays but it's important to at least note how those 3 plays led to 17 points and a ton of yardage.

The TD drives of 26, 18, 31 are explainable too. Bama had a 124-65 yardage edge end of 1Q. Bateman, yep he started that game at QB, threw a terrible INT to led to the first TD on the 26 yard drive which they converted a 4th and goal to go up 10-3. Bama turns it over again and Ole Miss gets 7 on the 18 yard drive. Ole Miss had 17 points on 95 yards of offense at half. Then the head pass to go up 24-10 to start the 2H. Then Bama hits Kelly for a scoop and score TD which was blown dead and resulted in 3 for OM and not 7 for Bama. Then the illegal 73 yard pop pass to go up 36-24. then another short scoring drive after a Bama TO.

All of this to say, I'm not buying the mobile QB thing being a factor in this game, which is really the only game of any consequence, IMO, as it pertains to "mbole QB" giving Bama trouble. I know that's the popular narrative but it's actually really a lie that spread teams and fast teams are kryptonite for Saban. It is exponentially less likely you will get obliterated like LSU and Mich St who try to bully Bama but the issues with substitution and depth on the Bama front really render ineffective a lot of what happened years back with some of those mobile guys in years past. Cardale Jones is the only other one that I will at least give some credence to because some of those adjustments had been made at this point last year but it still wasn't rolling as good and the defense this year compared to last are a joke to compare. Can Watson line up and just bully, physically bowl over Bama defenders like Jones? I don't think so, but I guess maybe it could happen.. I'll say this, if the plan for Clemson is to run Watson 24 times, I don't see that ending well for him. The backup better stay loose if that's the plan. I think Watson is a far superior QB to Mayfield, however, I think it's easy to see the narrative in this game being "Bama struggles with mobile QB's" it would have come up no matter which team won the OB. Thing is, it's not necessarily a QB that lines up intending to run on designed plays that gives Bama trouble as much as it is a guy that can just run around and throw something up and hope the coverage busts. I think Watson has that ability but prob not to the same degree as Mayfield and certainly not like a Manziel who we are sure to see lots of highlights of this week. I would throw out anything that happened past the 2014 season in regards to mobile QB and I wouldn't look past a guy like Dak Prescott who is the best comparable to Watson out of any. He passed okay, 22/43 0TD/1INT but carried 26 times for 14 against Bama in November. Last year 27/48 for 290 2TD/3INT and ran 22 for 82.

Again I just think it's important to add some context tot he mobile QB thing because it's super easy to throw around and also prob a lot more irrelevant than many believe.
 
maybe some will disagree, but the coaching adv has to be pretty big for Saban with time, right?
 
But it's still likelier that the kicking game hurts Clemson against Alabama. Clemson ranks 126th out of 127 FBS teams in expected points added through special teams (minus-45.31), mainly because its coverage teams struggle. That's troublesome against Alabama....
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Not particularly. Clemson's problem is kickoff (not punt) coverage. Kickoffs follow scores, so it's less troublesome against Alabama than against anyone else.
 
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Clemson is just 65th nationally in red zone touchdown percentage (60.7 percent of drives).
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Which puts Clemson ahead of Alabama, TAMU, Ole Miss, and every team in the SEC East.
 
Everyone knows the Alabama front 7 is great. Clemson's is pretty damn good as well. My largest wager will be on the 1H under as I expect both offenses to need some time to solve the other side's defefense.
 
Just a reminder, as the game was awhile back, Bama had a 29-16 FD edge, 503-433 yardage edge but lost the TO battle 5-0.
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Yeah, but y'all ran 101 plays because the TOs led to several short drives. Yards per play was 6.66-4.98 in favor of the Rebels. If you turn the fluke TD into an incompletion, it changes to 5.65-4.98 in favor of Ole Miss. They still moved the ball, and they did so much better than any other opponent.
 
C-MAN said:
Everyone knows the Alabama front 7 is great. Clemson's is pretty damn good as well. My largest wager will be on the 1H under as I expect both offenses to need some time to solve the other side's defefense.
Click to expand...

Bama has only given up like 21 or 23 1Q points this season, team's avg 1.5 points in 1Q. Clemson really good there too giving up 4.8. In 2Q Bama gives up 4.9 and Clemson 4.1. So a Bama team that gives up 6.4 points per 1H and Clemson 9.7. Clemson avg 22 1H points to Bama's 15. So an avg Clemson 1H is 22-10 and Bama is 15-6. When looking at advanced stats the one area where I think Bama really has an edge is in explosive running plays. Clemson defense hardly ever gives up big plays, like Bama they are super efficient, but when they do give up a big gainer it tends to be massive. I think that sets up well for a 1H under because when Bama typically rips those off after a half hour+ of bludgeoning.
 
M.W. said:
Yeah, but y'all ran 101 plays because the TOs led to several short drives. Yards per play was 6.66-4.98 in favor of the Rebels. If you turn the fluke TD into an incompletion, it changes to 5.65-4.98 in favor of Ole Miss. They still moved the ball, and they did so much better than any other opponent.
Click to expand...

I agree they moved the ball best but like I said, take away both those plays and it's a lot more pedestrian effort but certainly an admirable one considering what these defense does every week. You took away the head pass I would propose to eliminate both the head and pop which would bring them down to 4.66 which is closer to the 4.09 per game they give up.
 
Yeah, the longer version that got eaten when my internet service cut out, said it was a foul, and it should have been called.

One thing to remember about the Ole Miss game is that Ole Miss had a bunch of injuries that affected the Rebels in the weeks following the Bama game, but they were healthy for Bama.
 
twinkie13 said:
I am more interested in Bama offense vs this D...
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Agree, as a Bama fan that is a big concern. Watson is the scariest guy to face in the country but I'm so confident in the defense that they will rise to the occasion that's no concern. Can the offense, and Coker, have another game last the Cotton Bowl where they attack the perimeter effectively and explosively. I don't know, I prob wouldn't bet on it.
 
M.W. said:
Yeah, the longer version that got eaten when my internet service cut out, said it was a foul, and it should have been called.

One thing to remember about the Ole Miss game is that Ole Miss had a bunch of injuries that affected the Rebels in the weeks following the Bama game, but they were healthy for Bama.
Click to expand...

Totally agree with that. A healthy OM in 2014 and 2015, esp the defense, is a very elite group. Bummed they couldn't stay healthy purely as a fan.
 
CrimsonK said:
Agree, as a Bama fan that is a big concern. Watson is the scariest guy to face in the country but I'm so confident in the defense that they will rise to the occasion that's no concern. Can the offense, and Coker, have another game last the Cotton Bowl where they attack the perimeter effectively and explosively. I don't know, I prob wouldn't bet on it.
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No conern is too extreme. It's a conern, but less so than the offense moving it.
 
booksbestfriend said:
Was Tunsil available for the Bama game?
Click to expand...

No he was out. I mentioned it in my thread, but I'm not sure how much the Ole Miss game matters to be honest. It was the third game, and Alabama is a much different, much better team now. I'd say it is the first year under Saban where the team is significantly better at the end of the season than at the beginning. In the Ole Miss game, Calvin Ridley was the 3rd option at WR. Robert Foster was lost for the season in the game, forcing Ridley into a larger role moving forward. The QB situation was very much unsettled. A lot of the contributors on defense were still learning on the fly. Particularly Marlon Humphrey, who was the CB that left his man on the pop pass. The other long play had so many ridiculous factors to it, it's not even worth talking about it, although Cyrus Jones also left his man which is why the WR was able to catch it in stride. Now clearly Clemson is probably better than they were in September as well, but I'm just making the point that the Ole Miss game is not as useful as some are claiming. I think the Tennessee game may be a better comparison.

If Clemson is to win, they are going to need either turnovers or big plays or both. Alabama has given up only one drive of 10 plays or more this season. Banking on driving up and down the field is a losing proposition. Special teams has moved from a liability to a strength for Alabama. As I mentioned in the other thread, if both teams play a clean game, I believe Alabama wins. If Jake Coker plays like he did against Michigan State, I'm not sure there's much Clemson can do. If Clemson forces turnovers, has a few big plays and is able to maintain balance on offense, they can outscore Alabama
 
Just lil ole Clemson. Just happy to even be on the field with Bama. Hope we don't get embarrassed
 
Schrute said:
Just lil ole Clemson. Just happy to even be on the field with Bama. Hope we don't get embarrassed
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I have Alabama -3.5 against Carolina on a neutral field. We would be -10 against Cincinnati with Dalton, but if AJ is the QB, it's a PK
 
Now clearly Clemson is probably better than they were in September as well, but I'm just making the point that the Ole Miss game is not as useful as some are claiming. I think the Tennessee game may be a better comparison
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Well, Ole Miss is the best team Bama played, and they're probably the most similar to Clemson in other respects.

How you do you see UT as a good comparison?
 
Funny stuff guys. On the coaching advantage/discussion, no doubt Bama has the advantage but Dabo is as good as anyone in getting his guys motivated. Another reason why I expect the first half to stay close and low scoring.
 
M.W. said:
Well, Ole Miss is the best team Bama played, and they're probably the most similar to Clemson in other respects.

How you do you see UT as a good comparison?
Click to expand...

Clemson's talent is closer comparison to Ole Miss, but Clemson's offense is much more complex than Ole Miss', more like UT's. Ole Miss essentially has 6 plays. And the WR don't have a route tree. Maybe I'm wrong about Clemson's offense though.
 
I don't see laying 7pts in this game unless you think Clemson is going to implode offensively by turning the ball over several times.
 
And I don't think Clemson was altering their prep schedule anyway. They were treating it like a regular game week when they have classes anyway. Good for image though to have things equal
 
Schrute said:
And I don't think Clemson was altering their prep schedule anyway. They were treating it like a regular game week when they have classes anyway. Good for image though to have things equal
Click to expand...

This is a non-issue. The NCAA granted Clemson a waiver of the 20-hour rule.
 
Rumors that MAC Alexander might be out. Either way Clemson will at best be playing defense with their best 2 defensive players hobbled. I just took Bama -6.5
 
My 100 Dime selection is on Alabama over Clemson. The current line on this game is -6 1/2 to -7 in Vegas and offshore. If your line is -7 to -7 1/2 you buy the 1/2 point down. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.


Lang's pick....fade away FELLAs!

 
wiseplayer said:
I don't see laying 7pts in this game unless you think Clemson is going to implode offensively by turning the ball over several times.
Click to expand...

If you ever listen to any advice on this forum, listen to what I'm telling you here and now. Bet as much money as you are comfortable betting on Alabama. At no time will your money be in peril. This will be a complete demolition on national television Notre Dame style. I have Alabama -21.5 @ +500, and I WILL cash that ticket.

:shake:
 
IrieBlue said:
My 100 Dime selection is on Alabama over Clemson. The current line on this game is -6 1/2 to -7 in Vegas and offshore. If your line is -7 to -7 1/2 you buy the 1/2 point down. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.


Lang's pick....fade away FELLAs!

Click to expand...

Don't buy any points!!!
 
gps_3 said:
It's Alabama -8 at my book, but not surprising that it's a local that is probably taking 75%+ on Alabama
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Just checked and my local has -6.5 (+102) it is a website so I have no idea how much out of state action he has.... But still
 
Jimmydafreak said:
If you ever listen to any advice on this forum, listen to what I'm telling you here and now. Bet as much money as you are comfortable betting on Alabama. At no time will your money be in peril. This will be a complete demolition on national television Notre Dame style. I have Alabama -21.5 @ +500, and I WILL cash that ticket.

:shake:
Click to expand...

Dang Jimmy, feeling it, eh? This is my least confident Bama nat'l title game of the last 4. I hope you're right!
 
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