AL pennant NYY +200

This is the best team I have seen all year. They got good relief pitching, and most importantly they know how to come from behind and win and get the breaks. I really think this is their year.
 
I'll just observe the reason NYY failed last post season was because their offense completely tanked it - 5 runs in the 1st 3 innings of that series with Detroit, then a total of only 9 runs over the next 32 innings (avg 2.53/game). And the only significant missing face from that lineup is Sheffield, whose absence means their offense taking the field for this post season is arguably worse now than what it was vs Detroit. Did Detroit have any 2 starting pitchers better than CC & Carmona? I dont see it. Gayroids stunk the ship up so much he was relegated to batting 8th by that series end. What he does in the regular season simply has proven to amount to naught come post seasons.

This series will rest of whether Cleveland's bats run hot or cold. I personally don't believe they'll lose it due to their pitching. If their bats run hot, Tribe in 5.
 
Intangibles my friend..It's the way the yankees play, the way they have owned the second half. AROD is a much better player this year than last year. NYY had no chemistry last year, and a shit pen IMO. ..those things have improved tremendously this year imo.

Joba Chamberlain is a huge difference in that pen...it's the Zumaya of last year. I also don't think the Indians have the veteran poise of a Kenny Rogers on their staff either. Carmona is good, but the yankee hitters are patient and will foul off a lot of pitches on he and sabathia..if they split the two games I like the chances.
 
Hey I like the tribe, and they have gone on an incredible run. I just think this Yankee team is special.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
I'll just observe the reason NYY failed last post season was because their offense completely tanked it - 5 runs in the 1st 3 innings of that series with Detroit, then a total of only 9 runs over the next 32 innings (avg 2.53/game). And the only significant missing face from that lineup is Sheffield, whose absence means their offense taking the field for this post season is arguably worse now than what it was vs Detroit. Did Detroit have any 2 starting pitchers better than CC & Carmona? I dont see it. Gayroids stunk the ship up so much he was relegated to batting 8th by that series end. What he does in the regular season simply has proven to amount to naught come post seasons.

This series will rest of whether Cleveland's bats run hot or cold. I personally don't believe they'll lose it due to their pitching. If their bats run hot, Tribe in 5.
Click to expand...


Carmona and CC struggle lifetime against Yanks. The other guys are terrible against them. Borowski and Betancourt also have struggled. This is a mismatch. Now, CC could come out and turn things around but you need the pen to also change things around.

Should be a short series. I hope CLE wins game one so I an get a better price on NYY for the series.
 
good point BAR...I know the Yanks all have good numbers lifetime against CC, but haven't faced him in a while I believe. AROD is hitting .427 against him lifetime
 
u cant imagine the shit us white sox people are taking. its crazy. but i gotta support the city.
 
why is the most volume on a team who hasnt won a ws in forever who has won 85 games in the NL? that makes no sense.

i can see why people be on NYY tho.
 
:bow::bow::bow: Huntdog



The books are giving Cleveland absolutely zero respect in this opening series for a reason. The possabilities are bleak, bottom line.

Anyways, there's no value in just that series...short of going game to game...but throw in both AL series, and i love the play, bro. (Providing the BoSox take care of the Halos, that is.)

But like you said...throw out april/may, and it's the best team in baseball. Just maybe mystique and destiny will finally make their return...
 
brewer said:
why is the most volume on a team who hasnt won a ws in forever who has won 85 games in the NL? that makes no sense.

i can see why people be on NYY tho.
Click to expand...

i don't know why (the loyal cubs fans always bet them and before the season, they were noted to have highest volume for NL teams and during their slump, people lumped on them again), so the cubs winning the series would be the worst result for the books
 
does this lineup look familiar?

<table class="tablehead" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="colhead" align="right"><td align="left" width="44%">Hitters</td><td width="7%">AB</td><td width="7%">R</td><td width="7%">H</td><td width="7%">RBI</td><td width="7%">BB</td><td width="7%">SO</td><td width="7%">LOB</td><td width="7%">AVG</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" align="right"><td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">B Williams CF</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>2</td><td>2</td><td>.254</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" align="right"><td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">D Jeter SS</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>3</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>.277</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" align="right"><td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">G Sheffield RF</td><td>4</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>5</td><td>.294</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" align="right"><td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">A Rodriguez 3B</td><td>3</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>2</td><td>3</td><td>.287</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" align="right"><td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">J Posada C</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>.273</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" align="right"><td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">H Matsui LF</td><td>3</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>6</td><td>.301</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" align="right"><td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">R Sierra DH</td><td>3</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>.256</td></tr><tr class="evenrow" align="right"><td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">J Olerud 1B</td><td>4</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>1</td><td>3</td><td>.260</td></tr><tr class="oddrow" align="right"><td align="left" nowrap="nowrap">M Cairo 2B</td><td>4</td><td>1</td><td>2</td><td>1</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>0</td><td>.277</td></tr><tr class="colhead" align="right"><td align="left">Totals</td><td>31</td><td>5</td><td>9</td><td>5</td><td>6</td><td>6</td><td>19</td><td>
</td></tr></tbody></table>
that's the last time Sabathia faced the Yankees... over 3 years ago. John Olerud was playing, for chrissake.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=240901110

Carmona started against the Yankees twice this year, and faced them 3 times last year in relief. Based on his overall performance this year, including the fact that he didn't pitch poorly against the Yanks, I wouldn't be too confident in the Yankees' "numbers" against the Tribe's top two starters. The problem with this sort of analysis is you're depending on too small of a relevant sample size.

No, I don't think the Indians will walk through the Yankees, as their 0-6 regular season mark is worrisome. Nor do I think the Yankees are a solid 2:1 favorite to get by the Indians, and then the Red Sox/Angels. The bookmakers set those props where they know they'll get money on NYY.

Regardless, I'm still counting the cash I was paid today from my under on the Yankees' season win total... no matter how good they are, that total's always set way too high.

:cheers:
 
Going to be hard to find value on the Yankess in a game by game basis. The yankee lines are always inflated. This bet or one to win the world series seems to be the only real way to get value on this team. do the yankess win the pennant more than 1 out of 3 times ?? I think so, and that makes this a value in my mind, even if a tiny one. As I said before, finding a value on this team is not easy due to overly chalky lines. Hell, the Yankess are road favorites with Sabathia on the mound ! The real reason that I think this line is a value is that the yankess may get to dodge the Angels who simply own them and instead get the tribe who they have simply owned. From a fan perspective ( I am an Oakland A's fan), It would be a lot more fun to watch a yanks/bosox alcs to boot.

good luck with your bet Huntdog
 
thanks a lot guys..appreciate it. Great points Rolub and VK.

I personally don't give a shit about value, I just try and pick winners. If the Yankees were -200 I would take them as well. I just think this is the best team in baseball.
 
Funniest sentences in this thread link Yankees with value.

Short, short memories.

Let's dispel of some mythology ...

"THIS 2007 Yankees team is better than the 2006 team that fizzled in October."

The 2006 team won 97 games and won its division by 10 games. This year's team won 94 games and had to slink into the playoffs as a wild card.


"THIS 2007 Yankees team is a much better offensive team than the 2006 team that fizzled in October."

The 2007 edition scored 38 more runs, hit a few points higher, slugged a few fewer bombs. Over 162-game seasons, it's 2007 by a nose. But personally, I'd rather face the Yanks without Gary Sheffield.


"THIS 2007 Yankees team has a much better pitching staff than the 2006 team that fizzled in October."

The 2006 team had a lower team ERA, more complete games, more shutouts, lower BAA, more saves, fewer blown saves ... any other good ways to measure a pitching staff? In fact, by most any statistical measure the 2007 Yankees have one of the very worst pitching staffs to qualify for the playoffs since the wild card format was introduced.


"THIS 2007 Yankees team faces an easier playoff path in the first round than the 2006 team that fizzled in October ."

People have short memories, even Vegas disagrees here, as the 2006 Tigers were well over 2-to-1 dogs in the first round while the 2007 Indians are about a 7/4 bet in the upcoming series. The 2006 Yankees held homefield advantage against a 95-win wild card team which the Yankees dominated to the tune of 5-2 in the regular season, a team that went 11-16 in September and boasted a pair of 17-game winners, one of whom - Kenny Rogers - the Tigers opted not to pitch until game three. The 2007 Yankees are on the road against a 96-win division champion which the Yankees dominated to the tune of 6-0 in the regular season (without seeing Sabathia once), a team that went 18-9 in September and boasts a pair of 19-game winners who will open up the series.

The way I see it, there's all this oozing confidence basically because of the emergence of a pitcher with 24 pressureless innings under his belt and who has done zero to prove he can perform on consecutive days. Big deal.

Tribe in three, bet 'em early, bet 'em often.
 
why so conservative, brewer?

Tribe in 1 - they'll still be playing the bottom of the 3rd come the 3rd day of the series (Tribe up a few hundred runs) and the Yankee relievers (incl. converted starters) will be screaming for mercy, none of them having anything but dead arms to offer for the rest of the series, so they forfeit.

:36_11_6:
 
HUNTDOG said:
thanks a lot guys..appreciate it. Great points Rolub and VK.

I personally don't give a shit about value, I just try and pick winners. If the Yankees were -200 I would take them as well. I just think this is the best team in baseball.
Click to expand...

That I can respect. A wire... i mean, wise man once told me it doesn't matter what the juice is if you feel it's a winner.

GL Hunt :cheers:












...but GO TRIBE! :smiley_acbe:
 
Pitching, pitching, pitching. It's the name of the game. How many consecutive years do the Yanks have to get bounced in the playoffs because they don't have any of it for people to realize this?

Since the 2000 season, four American League qualifiers have entered the playoffs with ignominy of sporting both the highest ERA and the highest BAA among the four teams. Three (2001 Indians, 2002 Twins, 2005 Red Sox) bowed out rather meekly. One, the 2004 Yankees, bowed out with a sonic boom. Point is that the teams that have entered the playoffs with better regular season pitching statistics than their playoff rivals, and not necessarily better regular season records or even good regular season HTH records against other playoff teams, have fared far better than the teams with weaker pitching numbers.

The last three A.L. champions had either the best regular season ERA of the four teams, the best regular season BAA of the four teams, or both. (For what it's worth, Boston holds both honors this year.)

The 2007 Yankees enter October with the worst ERA (by a lot) among the four qualifiers at 4.49, and tied for the worst BAA with Cleveland at .268. If you bet on this New York pitching staff, you're gambling against history. Maybe you'll get some luck, you'll need it.
 
tipyerbartender said:
Pitching, pitching, pitching. It's the name of the game. How many consecutive years do the Yanks have to get bounced in the playoffs because they don't have any of it for people to realize this?

Since the 2000 season, four American League qualifiers have entered the playoffs with ignominy of sporting both the highest ERA and the highest BAA among the four teams. Three (2001 Indians, 2002 Twins, 2005 Red Sox) bowed out rather meekly. One, the 2004 Yankees, bowed out with a sonic boom. Point is that the teams that have entered the playoffs with better regular season pitching statistics than their playoff rivals, and not necessarily better regular season records or even good regular season HTH records against other playoff teams, have fared far better than the teams with weaker pitching numbers.

The last three A.L. champions had either the best regular season ERA of the four teams, the best regular season BAA of the four teams, or both. (For what it's worth, Boston holds both honors this year.)

The 2007 Yankees enter October with the worst ERA (by a lot) among the four qualifiers at 4.49, and tied for the worst BAA with Cleveland at .268. If you bet on this New York pitching staff, you're gambling against history. Maybe you'll get some luck, you'll need it.
Click to expand...

but... but... IT'S THE YANKEES, TIP!







:36_11_6:
 
Just wanted to say congrats to cleveland and the cleveland backers, I was dead wrong on this series.
 
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