Air Force vs. Utah State: Week 14 College Football Game Previews
Air Force Falcons vs. Utah State Aggies
Thursday, December 3, 2020 at 9:30 p.m. ET (CBSSN) at Maverik Stadium in Logan, Utah
Utah State’s Offense Last Week
One might think that the spread posted by College Football Oddsmakers favors Air Force too strongly.
This thought could surface in one’s mind when one looks at Utah State’s last game, a 41-27 victory over New Mexico.
In order to foreclose false optimism in the Aggies, we need to consider just how bad New Mexico is defensively.
Currently, the Lobos rank 113th nationally in total defense — as measured by opposing yards per game.
Moreover, the Lobos rank 98th in scoring defense as measured by points allowed per game.
So Utah State’s effort against New Mexico really only says a lot about New Mexico’s defense.
Part of my argument will be that, defensively, Air Force resides in a different stratosphere than the Lobo defense.
Utah State’s Offensive Issues
Even after feasting on New Mexico, the Aggies only rank 120th nationally in scoring 17.2 points per game.
But stats hardly do justice to Utah State’s offensive ineptitude.
The key problem is that Jordan Love is gone. Utah State’s long-time quarterback departed and was selected in the first round by Green Bay.
Without him, Utah State lacks a stable quarterback.
Two different quarterbacks have seen action for the Aggies.
One is Jason Shelley. Shelley was just barely completing over half of his passes while averaging a very meagre 4.2 YPA. He had also thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns (two).
Shelley was dismissed from the team because he violated some team rules. But the fact that he was receiving the playing time that he did speaks volumes about Utah State’s other quarterback, who had not been able to beat out Shelley for the starting job.
So the other quarterback who Utah State will feature is Andrew Peasley. Like his former teammate, Peasley is completing less than half his passes. He had been Shelley’s backup throughout this season. Now, he’ll be the main guy.
Utah State Offense vs. Air Force Defense
Defensively, Air Force has shown two sides. It has one side when it faces a competent pass attack. But it looks different when it faces a lower-class offense.
Overall, the Falcon pass numbers reflect its struggles against pass-happy San Jose State whose quarterback had initially committed to Texas A&M.
Boise State, too, thrived with its quarterback play, with a former USC enrollee.
Against teams with weak pass attacks, like New Mexico’s, Air Force’s pass defense ensured that the opposing quarterback completed a low percentage of his passes and that he failed to be productive even despite attempting a high number of passes.
Unlike Boise State and San Jose State quarterbacks, Peasley lacks any ties to a team with any prestige or to any team in a major conference.
Peasley is so non-talented that the only other offer he received was from Portland State. Portland State does not even participate in the FBS. It is an FCS squad.
For some reason, Utah State was the other team to show interest in Peasley. And now it’s paying the price.
Air Force Offense vs. Utah State Defense
Air Force likes to run its triple option attack.
Defensively, Utah State knows and always has known what to expect from the Falcons.
But the Aggies consistently lack any ability to limit the Falcons.
Primarily on the strength of their ground game, the Falcons have produced over 30 points in each of the last three meetings between these schools.
In two of those three meetings, Air Force accrued over 400 rushing yards.
Like last year, the Aggie run defense ranks terribly on a national scale.
Currently, they rank 101st in allowing 202.8 rushing yards per game. So a truly run-first team like Air Force will thrive from an optimal match-up opportunity with the porous Aggie run defense.
The Verdict
Air Force will dominate Utah State’s awful run defense en route to another 30+-point scoring output.
Offensively, the Aggies cannot keep pace given their limitations in the passing game and Air Force’s strength against poor quarterbacks.
This game will be another one in which the Falcons give up 10 points or less.
For the above reasons, expect something like a 20-point victory in favor of Air Force.
Best Bet: Falcons -10 at -117 with Bookmaker
Air Force Falcons vs. Utah State Aggies
Thursday, December 3, 2020 at 9:30 p.m. ET (CBSSN) at Maverik Stadium in Logan, Utah
Utah State’s Offense Last Week
One might think that the spread posted by College Football Oddsmakers favors Air Force too strongly.
This thought could surface in one’s mind when one looks at Utah State’s last game, a 41-27 victory over New Mexico.
In order to foreclose false optimism in the Aggies, we need to consider just how bad New Mexico is defensively.
Currently, the Lobos rank 113th nationally in total defense — as measured by opposing yards per game.
Moreover, the Lobos rank 98th in scoring defense as measured by points allowed per game.
So Utah State’s effort against New Mexico really only says a lot about New Mexico’s defense.
Part of my argument will be that, defensively, Air Force resides in a different stratosphere than the Lobo defense.
Utah State’s Offensive Issues
Even after feasting on New Mexico, the Aggies only rank 120th nationally in scoring 17.2 points per game.
But stats hardly do justice to Utah State’s offensive ineptitude.
The key problem is that Jordan Love is gone. Utah State’s long-time quarterback departed and was selected in the first round by Green Bay.
Without him, Utah State lacks a stable quarterback.
Two different quarterbacks have seen action for the Aggies.
One is Jason Shelley. Shelley was just barely completing over half of his passes while averaging a very meagre 4.2 YPA. He had also thrown as many interceptions as touchdowns (two).
Shelley was dismissed from the team because he violated some team rules. But the fact that he was receiving the playing time that he did speaks volumes about Utah State’s other quarterback, who had not been able to beat out Shelley for the starting job.
So the other quarterback who Utah State will feature is Andrew Peasley. Like his former teammate, Peasley is completing less than half his passes. He had been Shelley’s backup throughout this season. Now, he’ll be the main guy.
Utah State Offense vs. Air Force Defense
Defensively, Air Force has shown two sides. It has one side when it faces a competent pass attack. But it looks different when it faces a lower-class offense.
Overall, the Falcon pass numbers reflect its struggles against pass-happy San Jose State whose quarterback had initially committed to Texas A&M.
Boise State, too, thrived with its quarterback play, with a former USC enrollee.
Against teams with weak pass attacks, like New Mexico’s, Air Force’s pass defense ensured that the opposing quarterback completed a low percentage of his passes and that he failed to be productive even despite attempting a high number of passes.
Unlike Boise State and San Jose State quarterbacks, Peasley lacks any ties to a team with any prestige or to any team in a major conference.
Peasley is so non-talented that the only other offer he received was from Portland State. Portland State does not even participate in the FBS. It is an FCS squad.
For some reason, Utah State was the other team to show interest in Peasley. And now it’s paying the price.
Air Force Offense vs. Utah State Defense
Air Force likes to run its triple option attack.
Defensively, Utah State knows and always has known what to expect from the Falcons.
But the Aggies consistently lack any ability to limit the Falcons.
Primarily on the strength of their ground game, the Falcons have produced over 30 points in each of the last three meetings between these schools.
In two of those three meetings, Air Force accrued over 400 rushing yards.
Like last year, the Aggie run defense ranks terribly on a national scale.
Currently, they rank 101st in allowing 202.8 rushing yards per game. So a truly run-first team like Air Force will thrive from an optimal match-up opportunity with the porous Aggie run defense.
The Verdict
Air Force will dominate Utah State’s awful run defense en route to another 30+-point scoring output.
Offensively, the Aggies cannot keep pace given their limitations in the passing game and Air Force’s strength against poor quarterbacks.
This game will be another one in which the Falcons give up 10 points or less.
For the above reasons, expect something like a 20-point victory in favor of Air Force.
Best Bet: Falcons -10 at -117 with Bookmaker
