Afl Week 3

spottie2935

spottie2935

Read Lines, Not Books
LJC we were on the wrong page last week, so that is why I would like to discuss the games this week. Tell me your thoughts, leans and any info so we can go over week 3 in better detail. What I am tring to prevent is my bad week because everyone has them. Tomorrow I will go through the games and offer my thoughts and leans. hopefully we'll see some lines by then.:tiphat:
 
early leans

zona +16.5. yea they are bad but san jose is off to a slow start. too many points not to take. san jose is 15-4-1 ats at home last 20.

couple of ??? lines:

Columbus -1 (the runner up last year) at home facing cleveland. cleveland / las vegas (this team was horrible last year now only getting 1 this week? columbus or nothing here but it could be fishy.

LA -3 @ Georgia. wait a second LA was only laying 4.5 at Zona last week and now laying 3 to a better team in Georgia. I prefer +# in Gergia to +4.5 on Zona last week. Value play on Georgia.

like Colorado a bit. and this maybe a good week to fade philly against a tall number. 2 teams laying over 2 ts's this week. I thinks in this league its tough to lay that many so I really do not see both these big chalks covering so that is something to consider!


thats really all i see this week until i hear back from you .:shake:
 
I certainly can't figure that Columbus number. I actually thought it would be higher.

I think I played Georgia the first two weeks, maybe the third time is a charm. I can't figure them either. On paper they are a much better team but they are playing bad.

I agree with what you say with the dd dogs, especially Colorado. I think they make a game of it. It will be tough to take a team as bad as Zona but it is the right side imo. I think Smoker is starting at QB and he did nothing last week, but it is a different team and he has all week to prepare.
 
I don't have much time to write up on these but my top four would be..

Columbus -1.5
Utah +8
Colorado +16ish Favorite play.
Zona +16ish

Fishy line o the week Chicago -6.5 Thought that would be higher.
 
ok here who i am taking so far:

Arizona the line is moving up so maybe lock in closer to kickoff
Colorado I don't see 10 in vegas yet so again I will wait

my leans at this point are georgia, cleveland (something is up they were horrible last year and they have improved )

before I play shitty new york I want to see the result of the zona game if I cash that one I will stay away. there should be some value against philly but is it this week? Im not so sure yet!
 
utah

the only way for me in that game is utah + . two 0-2 teams and utah +7 at one point. toom any points to give up. the reason i do not like utah is they lost last week in cleveland. i felt they should have won the game if they cover. i didn't see the game though, just handicapped the game that way. the x factor is I really don't know how good cleveland is yet! thats the problem here. when cleveland plays a good team I want to see if they keep it close or win a game against a top team.

utah probably keeps it close but fails to win str8 up.


as far as the other game tonight can you really see GR beating Chicago? I cant picture it. I will be fading Chicago a few times this year but in better spots. GR kept it close last week, but I cant see it this week!
 
Well I've compiled my plays/leans for this weekend.

Under 111 Chicago/GR
Utah +4
Cleveland -3ish
Georgia
Arizona
Colorado. best play.
 
ljc_267 said:
Well I've compiled my plays/leans for this weekend.

Under 111 Chicago/GR LIKE IT

Utah +4 LIKE IT BUT DANG THAT LINE MOVED QUICK

Cleveland -3ish YEA i THINK YOURE RIGHT BUT IT SEEMS TO ME MORE OF A GAMBLE. THEN AGAIN I TARGETED THIS TEAM TO HAVE A BETTER YEAR COVERING AFTER HOW SHITY THEY WERE IN VEGAS.

Georgia COUPLE OFQUESTIONS: HOW GOOD IS LA ON THE ROAD? THEY BEAT A CRAPPY ZONA TEAM. IN GEORGIAS LAST HOME GAME THEY GOT OUT QB'D AGAINST DALLAS CAN THEY KEEP UP HERE AGAINST ANOTHER TOP QB? I THINK I WILL JUST WATCH SINCE I AM UNSURE.

Arizona. 16 IS STILL AVAILABLE HERE IN VEGAS. LIKE THE PLAY
Colorado. best play. LIKE THIS ONE AS WELL. [/quote]

well were on the same page this week. I hope thats a good thing! good luck this week! lets hope the :moose: is out for the favorites!
Click to expand...
 
chicago big, and the under looking sweet! kinda thought this game would be this way. GR sucks after a cover last week they looked primed for a fade this week.

50-28 7:30 left
 
FYI for those of you not familiar with Spottie he is one of the best AFL cappers I know. I have learned a lot from him over the past 3 years, so he is a good guy to follow/learn from.
 
utah may cover but this is why I stayed away. its just too close to call. two 0-2 teams too many points and the back door cover is likely
 
ok I found my play

well nice job yeaster day LJC!

my only play today is going to be :

under 115 zona / sj.

I was leaning zona all week and came to my senses this morning. they failed miserably at home last week against a good qb. well now face one of the best qb's this week on the road no less. good luck to them. I really have a good feeling for a final of 60's-30's. This line should not be any higher than 108 so i will take a shot !

:tiphat:
 
just a few notes from arenafootball.com

QB SONNY CUMBIE and the undefeated Los Angeles Avengers will visit the winless Georgia Force at 7:00 pm ET. QB CHRIS GREISEN leads the Force, and despite the team's record he leads the AFL in passing yards (668). For more information click here.
At 7:00 pm ET, on AFL Net the first Battle of the Buckeye State will occur in the AFL, as the Columbus Destroyers host the undefeated Cleveland Gladiators. QB RAYMOND PHILYAW leads the surprise Gladiators in this Eastern Division showdown against Destroyers QB MATT NAGY. For more information click here.
In the final Saturday game, the ArenaBowl XXI Champion San Jose SaberCats will host the Arizona Rattlers at 10:00 pm ET. This is the 1-1 SaberCats first game at home since the 2007 American Conference Championship, and QB MARK GRIEB leads the team against QB JEFF SMOKER. For more information click here.
 
Got to go with what I think. Georgia has way under achieved so far. I believe they rebound tonight and get a win at home.

Georgia +3 .5 units


I may have one more play later.
 
well i did get down

on georgia but small and i did not post it because i was out most of the day. good call by you looking very good :tiphat:
 
LJC its looking like both dogs are going to cover san jose is 0-2 ats this year. both on the road they are 15-4-1 ats last 20 at home. im just going to pass
 
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