ADVICE Needed NBA-SERIES PLAYS TROUBLE

Sammy Meatballs

Sammy Meatballs

Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
I am so sick and tired of this NBA bullshit this year and I think I am dead basically with my 2 plays that I have pending. I bet way too much on what I though was sure shots and sure enough all of my stars are slowly getting injured and teams cannot do shit on the road.

I have the following 2 plays and need advice on what I should do and if I should just get out of the bets and take a loss.

I risked 5 DIMES on a 2 team parlay-- Detroit to win series- Lakers to win series

Ironically the team I thought would be trouble is Detroit was the only team to win on the road.
I am very concerned about the Lakers because if they lose next game they are done. Their EURO players just dont show up on the road and are soft- If UTAH can somehow win next game which is a possibility if BOOZER shows up I am dead in this series and the parlay will lose. I think Lakers can win in Utah but only if they win the next game.


I also bet $1500 on the Hornets to win the Series bet- I thought this was great after it was 2-0, but now I truly believe Hornets are done. Spurs can and will win either game 5 or 7 in Hornets town. THey are much better and I just cannot see POP shaking hands with Byron SCOTT having beaten him. Certain things dont happen and POPS does not lose to the Bryons and the Doc RIvers, never never never. Hornets are showing what they are, pretty much a bunch of castoff losers from other teams. Spurs with Manu and Tony Hungry will beat Hornets. THeir D is non existent and Spurs have won many many road games. I think they win 4 straight pretty easily.

Anyone think I am overreacting or do I have a chance to lose both of these?

I like the Lakers bet better, but am weary because the public jumped all over them, and their D is pretty shit and they have a mismatch inside vs the Jazz who are stronger, and the EUROS, Radmonovich, Vucacic and Jordan FARMAR who is getting schooled by Williams and looks totally lost out there.
 
If Kobe is OK Lakers will be fine. If he's not they're in big trouble.

Hornets look shaken but watch out, teams losing by 16 or more in the playoffs this year are now 13-5 SU. Bouncebacks have been strong this year. Win Game 5 and they're right on the edge.

Pistons took the air out of Orlando, no worries there.
 
I also think the Cavs will come back and beat the Celtics. They will win game 3 pretty easily again and steal game 4. I think we will see at least 2 teams win their series down 2-0. That is the way it will go down this year.

Hornets will choke this one away, they are done, Spurs are smarter, more clutch, better, they were easy bets in both games at home this year. They obviously dont want to quit this year playing and advance to the next round for sure with their effort and play- As good as they looked beating Phoenix, they look like now they have no problems with the Hornets now that Bowen is covering Stjokovich.
 
Gandolf said:
If Kobe is OK Lakers will be fine. If he's not they're in big trouble.

Hornets look shaken but watch out, teams losing by 16 or more in the playoffs this year are now 13-5 SU. Bouncebacks have been strong this year. Win Game 5 and they're right on the edge.

Pistons took the air out of Orlando, no worries there.
Click to expand...


That is what I am thinking-- Detroit looks good to win their series--

I am not so sure about the Lakers for one reason. No one and I mean no one gave Utah any chance to win this series after being down 2-0. Perhaps there was only 6 people in the world who gave Utah a chance to win this series? The Utah starting 5 and their coach SLOAN. That was bad news as they did what teams very rarely do and won 2 games in a row vs a supposed dominant playoff team. What concerned me is the LAKER D- Bad D can cost a series loss.

I guess LAkers are -9, so I can take Utah for small MOneyline and then parlay that if they win game 5 with a game 6 Moneyline at home--

Ex- $500 on Utah Mline- should pay $1500- put $1500 on game 6 and win back close to $3000.

If KObe is injured they are done for sure. Teams that win 2 in a row have the Momentum and they often can win 4 in a row. Teams do this all the time. Lakers can win the series with a win in game 5 and take back the Momentum, but the Euros and Farmar IMO are capable of playing a road game at home Lakers are in big trouble. Also UTAH I think just wants it more now. GASOL in game 3 did not want any part of any inside banging, he was waiting for the game to end so he could hide. Lakers have 3 players Fisher, Odom and Bryant.

Say what you want about Bryant he is a great home player but does not show up on the road very often. I have always seen his game change, he jacks up 3's on the road and is less aggressive. All of his bad games are on the road always. NOt a big surprise that they lost both on the road, cause KObe at home and Kobe on the road are 2 different players.





I think I will take a loss on the Hornets series. I want no part of this mickey mouse team. People crowned CP3 the next great player, well you know what every time I look the real star is Tony Parker he is unstoppable driving and so is his buddy MANU.

I cannot see SPURs losing to Byron Scott. The difference in this series is adjustments. Byron like his buddy Doc Rivers will do no adjustments and POPS has made the adjustments that the Hornets cannot stop.

The question I have is this. SPurs win game 6 for sure at home. We have seen that. Can the spurs win one of 2 in the Hornets nest. I think so for sure 100% they can do it. Also Byron's team came out flat in this game??? That is a sign of a team that will lose a playoff series easily they are not for real.

I can probably get Spurs at hopefully +140 or so and buy out
 
Relax man. If you really hate all your bets you've made so far you can easily get out of them for EV money. I doubt you hate them as much as you write about though. And honestly if you're betting 5K on this shit you shouldn't need a forum to help you. If you truly want help and can't figure out how to get out of any of your bets and break even (lose the juice) just ask the question. I can't see how it's not possible to easily break even minus the juice on all of them.
 
I do hate them pretty bad actually. I would not care if it was regular units, I usually play a few hundred on NBA games so this is a much bigger bet that I thought was sure money. I am starting to feel better about Lakers but am thinking of buying out of the Hornets bet by taking sPurs for the series now.

I do have the amounts that I said I do, and I am asking here because there are experts here that know their NBA. Already after talking to a few I have decided to let the Lakers one ride at this point.
 
If you "thought Detroit would be in trouble," why did you include a Detroit series bet in a five thousand dollar parlay?

Just wondering.
 
Last edited:
<TABLE border=1><TBODY><TR><TD noWrap>20264883-1 </TD><TD noWrap>5/5/2008 8:44 PM </TD><TD noWrap>Money Line </TD><TD noWrap align=right>500.00 </TD><TD noWrap align=right>322.58 </TD><TD noWrap>Basketball - 792 New Orleans Hornets (Series) -155 for Game </TD></TR><TR><TD noWrap>20217895-1 </TD><TD noWrap>5/3/2008 6:01 PM </TD><TD noWrap>Parlay </TD><TD noWrap align=right>1,881.00 </TD><TD noWrap align=right>1,250.83 </TD><TD noWrap>Basketball - 794 Detroit Pistons (Series) -330 for Game
Basketball - 796 Los Angeles Lakers (Series) -360 for Game


</TD></TR><TR><TD noWrap>20214000-1 </TD><TD noWrap>5/3/2008 3:36 PM </TD><TD noWrap>Parlay </TD><TD noWrap align=right>499.14 </TD><TD noWrap align=right>331.92 </TD><TD noWrap>Basketball - 794 Detroit Pistons (Series) -330 for Game
Basketball - 796 Los Angeles Lakers (Series) -360 for Game


</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<INPUT id=ticketNumber type=hidden value=0 name=ticketNumber><INPUT id=wagerNumber type=hidden value=0 name=wagerNumber><INPUT id=gradeNumber type=hidden value=0 name=gradeNumber>


<?xml version="1.0" encoding="utf-8"?><TABLE class=legendBox cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR><TD class="removeBox evenCell"> </TD><TD class=teamsBox>Description</TD><TD class="amountBox evenCell">Risking</TD><TD class=riskwinBox>To Win</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE class=matchupBox cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=evenRow><TD class=goLed><TABLE class=matchupBox cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0><TBODY><TR class=evenRow><TD class=removeBox>
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</TD><TD class=teamsBox><SMALL>STRAIGHT BET</SMALL>
<SMALL>NBA</SMALL>[792] HORNETS SERIES -155
</TD><TD class=amountBox>500.00</TD><TD class=riskwinBox>322.58</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR class=evenRow><TD class=goLed>
  • Bet Details: STRAIGHT BET, To be played :: 05/13/2008 @ 05:18 PM ::
  • Ticket Details: Ticket # 40573431 Placed ONLINE on 05/05/2008 at 05:48 PM
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>








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The rest was placed with my local $500 on the Hornets series and $2500 on the Lakers and Detroit Parlay.

These are the bets JPICK I would not post this shit If I didnt need advice. People know me here I never second guess a bet on teh sports I am very good at, but there are people better than me at NBA like you are, and I wanted the advice to see what they think will happen in teh series.





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Killa said:
If you "thought Detroit would be in trouble," why did you include a Detroit series bet in a five thousand dollar parlay?

Just wondering.
Click to expand...


Bro I thought before the series they would win in 5 or 6 as BAR said. After winning the first 2 I was feeling great. The only reason was the BILLUPS injury and the game 3 loss. I thought with no bILLUPS Orlando can win game 4 and possibly 5 and 6.

Detriot showed guts and won the game and now are doing well and should win it. Funny is I thought the LAKERS would win easy, and the bad thing is that a friend of mine who knows nothing about ball is saying oh dont worry Lakers are winning the series. The weird thing is people who havent watched any ball all think teh Lakers can win?? Could this be a case of underestimating the JAZZ?

The reason I am getting nervous is I put in a bigger than normal plays and now Billups gets injured first and now KOBE??

Why couldnt Boozer or williams get injured? or HOWARD. NO its all the players on my team.

I wanted to see what the experts think if I should let it ride here, or hedge out and lower my risk as I have a lot on the games and when I get nervous the players seem to get nervous or injured lol
 
I wasn't questioning wether or not you bet that much on them. I could honestly care less how much anybody bets on a series. All I'm asking is do you want of your bets or do you want to let them ride? If you are really asking people on a public forum who they like you should just automatically fade what you hear. It is what it is. I'm no different. Had you asked me before today I would have told you the Lakers would have probably won today. Who knows what's going to happen. I do know the Pistons are the safest bet of your plays. The two WC series are anybody's guess. Still easy for you to get out without losing much money if you want to.
 
Thanks J PICKS-- I think personally I feel like getting out of Hornets is a good bet, because I dont see Hornets winning in game 6 at San Antonio. This means they will have to win both game 5 and game 7 at home vs a Veteran Championship team. I dont like the odds of this.

Lakers at least I have a veteran team with the MVP-- They also can win game 6 in Utah especially if they win game 5. They almost won game 3 and game 4, if not for Farmar from what I hear who sucked shit.

Spurs I can get out and prob lose a little juice. TO be extra safe I could take Utah ML next game in LAKER Land and if it wins parlay it with Jazz Mline in game 6 at home vs Lakers. BUt I think I will let this one ride.
 
Billups will be fine. Kobe isn't really injured (notice EVERY year during the playoffs he has some random flu bug, back spasms).

And of course people who don't watch bball thing the Lakers will roll. It's no different for those of us who watch this shit daily. I think the Lakers will roll as well in the next 2 (3) games, but that's why the casinos make money. As BC put it earlier we are now up to 13-0 SU to the favs and 12-1 ATS. I gurantee NO or LA won't both win game 6's. It just won't happen. Hedge accordingly.
 
J picks did u mean game 5 in your last post? I also agree I dont think both will win game 5, a road team is due, and now the games will get more compettive as the road teams will try harder to steal one, because they cannot win the series without a road win.

My take is that I invested 5 g's- I sent the money to offshore and have the money aside to pay the bookie if it does not win. I was just thinking that the 5g's would sit nice in my bank account now, unless of course if I think I have a huge edge to win one of the bets.
 
I 100% agree with your thoughts on these series Sammy, but that's the exact reason why I won't be betting that way. It all seems so easy, but it never works out that way. From everything I've seen I have no doubt that the Hornets/Lakers should be meeting in the playoffs. These things never work out how you expect them to.

Good luck with whatever you decide. Sometimes hedging out is the best bet. :shake:
 
Yes I did mean Game 5's. My bad. Problem is if we polled 100 NBA fans, gambelers who wouldn't think that the team to win game 5 will be the Spurs rather than the Jazz? I'd certainly vote for the Spurs. Line movements are definitely worth watching right now. :)
 
Yeah tell me about it, it never also works out when you think you have a guarantee parlay also. Also I agree when you get greedy you also lose everytime. I have trust in PHIL and KOBE- Hornets not so much as they are young--

Hedging is a guaranteed win-- In all reality I should be winning both series 3-1 at this point. I would be in major trouble if LAKERS lost at home to Utah in game 5 at home. It is an NBA game and anything can happen, whihc is why I am always willing to hedge because I know anything can happen in this shit.
 
Even if the Hornets win the series I will not be mad-- I know in my heart that the Spurs are better and you dont mess with this team when they are hungry-- I dont trust BYRON and CP3 and a team with no playoff superstars or experience- that will come to play in a long series everytime.

Win or Lose that is the smart bet to make--

I also have a feeling that this Jazz series vs the Lakers is basically a PICKEM- the teams are much more even than people are thinking. Public has inflated Lakers value up and people think it is the old Lakers with Shaq. They have some major holes on D, and the EUROS and rookies are pretty bad sometimes. I just think the Lakers are not a lock to win this series- I think they should and can as long as they can hold home court, but the Jazz can also hold home court and if they are close in game 5 and somehow steal it watch out

i also heard on the TV that the Lakers have not won in Utah since 1988? Is this true? If so I dont like my chances in a game 6 elimination game.
 
i'd say trust your initial gut. Utah has tied the series, but in my opinion the Lakers are a class above them. Best player in the game, Kobe, and Pau Gasol? Utah isn't going to win this series. Don't let the last 2 games deceive you.
 
ShowTime49er said:
i'd say trust your initial gut. Utah has tied the series, but in my opinion the Lakers are a class above them. Best player in the game, Kobe, and Pau Gasol? Utah isn't going to win this series. Don't let the last 2 games deceive you.
Click to expand...


Above all else don't listen to anybody who has a pitcure of the team star that they are trying to sell as their avator. Honestly this place is homerism 101. I don't think Utah is going to win this series either, but when you've got a Kobe pic next to your name you need to sell it a bit more.
 
JPicks said:
Above all else don't listen to anybody who has a pitcure of the team star that they are trying to sell as their avator. Honestly this place is homerism 101. I don't think Utah is going to win this series either, but when you've got a Kobe pic next to your name you need to sell it a bit more.
Click to expand...


I'm a charlotte bobcat fan, but also a fan of basketball. And the guy in my avatar is the best in the game.
 
ShowTime49er said:
I'm a charlotte bobcat fan, but also a fan of basketball. And the guy in my avatar is the best in the game.
Click to expand...


I can respect that. Not sure that Kobe is the best in the game to lead his team to a title, but certainly the best scorer in the leauge. Either way we can both agree that Brown has some great defensive players to put together a team in Cha. :shake:
 
I think the game today helps to make a case for the lakers to win the series. The entire game i felt like the jazz were playing well and the lakers were not .... kobe was banged up and struggling not only with his shooting but with his explosiveness that often leads to open shots for teammates on the rare occasions that he decides to pass it. Everyone for the jazz seemed to contribute well , including their bench, they got even officiating for probably the last time in the series .......... and the friggin game , played in utah no less , still went to OT.

Just think unless his injury is worse than i think , the rapist and company are just a tad too much for the jazz right now.
 
If you want opinion, Lakers will win the series and Detroit as well. So if I understand correctly, If Lakers and Spurs win and Hornets lose, you turn no profit, but won't lose as well. I say take the risk. Lakers will beat Utah in Game 5 and maybe Game 6 as well or Game 7 tops. Not easily, but they just seem more ready. Lakers with foul trouble and injured Kobe were one rebound away in the end to open the game completely. If Kobe is healthy, Jazz got no chance of stopping him and he won't du T-Mac thing and cost his team a series. He is a winner and maximum he will do the Jordan thing and beat the Jazz injured.
Hornets I agree, very risky, but here is a thought. As you said, Spurs can win either game 5 or 7. Now you can take a risk that Hornets will beat them in game 5 and if they do that, you will have much better odds to cash out from that series.
BTW, I really don't know why people think that Cleveland will win? Boston are horrible on the road? Cleveland are much much worse I believe.

Good luck!
 
JPicks said:
Above all else don't listen to anybody who has a pitcure of the team star that they are trying to sell as their avator. Honestly this place is homerism 101. I don't think Utah is going to win this series either, but when you've got a Kobe pic next to your name you need to sell it a bit more.
Click to expand...

agreed. All betting forums turn into homerism 101 during playoffs, champions league knockout stage (football), etc...

I can't understand that but it just does. There are guys that are above that, of course, but a lot of them (even some very good cappers) aren't.
 
divol said:
BTW, I really don't know why people think that Cleveland will win? Boston are horrible on the road? Cleveland are much much worse I believe.

Good luck!
Click to expand...

I agree but that's why the odds on Boston to advance were 1.10 prior to game 1.

The real question is, does backing Bosto have any value at this point. It's already a tougher series than most expected.
 
i think the lakers will be fine. as much as utah will defend that they are great at home, they also struggle on the road. just keep in mind. advantage still in your favor. it's a 3 game series now, with two games at home for lakers and hornets.
 
Satyr said:
I agree but that's why the odds on Boston to advance were 1.10 prior to game 1.

The real question is, does backing Bosto have any value at this point. It's already a tougher series than most expected.
Click to expand...

Of course not. Why would anyone take such odds no matter who are the teams that play?
I don't see any reason to back Boston, I'm just saying that I see even less reasons (if there can be anything less than "any reason") to back Cleveland.
 
games remaining

at new orleans/at SA/at new orleans

at la/at utah/at la

who wins 2 out of 3?
 
<TABLE class=module borderColor=#111111 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=800 border=0 rgfloat="440,600"><TBODY><TR bgColor=#ffffff><TD noWrap colSpan=8><SMALL>Series Prices Best of Seven 2-2-1-1-1</SMALL></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=bottom bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap>Tue 5/13</TD><TD noWrap>791 </TD><TD noWrap>San Antonio Spurs (Series)</TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap><INPUT id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=M1_9> -110 </TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 28px" vAlign=top bgColor=#f6f6f6><TD noWrap>9:35PM (EST) </TD><TD noWrap>792</TD><TD noWrap>New Orleans Hornets (Series)</TD><TD noWrap></TD><TD noWrap><INPUT id=editx maxLength=5 size=4 name=M2_9> -110


Utah is +325 in their series vs LAKERS-

I think the Line is telling us that the Hornets series is a PICKEM even with homecourt advantage.


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