Adventures in Guillotine Leagues

[Gandolf]

So I'm in my first guillotine league this year. For those who've never heard of it the league works like this:

- A fixed number of teams participate in the preseason draft (for this league we have 20 teams starting).
- Set your lineup, you're playing against the entire league
- Team with the lowest points each week is eliminated. Their roster goes back into the free agent pool
- Waiver claims are based on bids using your FAAB budget.

With 20 teams starting, we'll get down to the final four in week 16, then in week 17 we'll play one week, highest score wins.

The lineup construction for this one is QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, FLEX, D/ST, K. Plus five bench spots means the draft went 300 deep, which is pretty damn deep. Scoring is Yahoo 1/2 pt ppr.

Here's my roster, I wound up drafting 6th. Got lucky that one of the big 5 RBs fell to me:

QB- B Mayfield
RBs - D Henry, D Harris
WRs - C Godwin, C Sutton, AB
TE - G Everett
Flex - Ruggs III
K- Blankenship
D/ST - Carolina

Bench - J. White, Darrel Williams, Dan Arnold, Demarcus Robinson, Tyrod Taylor (bench is fairly useless for now)

I plugged the league into Fantasypros and my roster ranked 9th, so I think I'm good for the first couple of weeks. If I can advance there will be opportunities to improve. The weekly waiver strategy will be very important and depends on who becomes available. Do you pay big early to secure the best free agents? Or do you hold back and hope you can collect more later on at better prices as teams FAAB dwindles?

Anyone else have any experience in this type of league? I'm in four leagues for various amounts of $. This is one of the lower ones but I find I'm the most interested in it so far.

 

[GWarner27]

Always a good idea to conserve budget in auction drafts and FAAB likely too, especially in a league where so many season-ending injuries occur

 

[Gandolf]

So I'm going to make it through week 1 thanks to Godwin/AB and no real mishaps, finishing up mid-pack. Time for the first guillotine to swing to see if I can upgrade anything.

There are two teams battling for elimination.....looks like the one that will get knocked out is called Frank Minnifield, who didn't replace OBJ or Keelan Cole in his lineup and also got put in jeopardy by Aaron Rodgers (pun intended). Minnifield's team going back into the pool leads to the following possibilities:

QB - Arod - I don't see Arod as a top 6 QB and therefore wouldn't offer much value over Baker. Pass

RB - Najee Harris/Nyheim Hines/McKinnon/Burkhead - Obviously Najee would be the big prize but with Henry and the NE RBs in the fold I can be a little more picky at this early point the tourney. Would imagine someone will go big on him. I might throw a lowball number in just in case.

WR - OBJ/Agholor/Rashard Higgins/Waddle - I'm pretty happy with my WRs at this point and don't really see an upgrade here.

TE - Pitts - Here's a potential prize worth plucking. Although Atlanta is a bit of a mess and Pitts is still a rookie. I can see putting in a $10 bid for a top six TE.

D - Baltimore - I haven't been as high on the Ravens D as the ADP has been saying, so they're probably not worth making a play for.

There is also Eli Mitchell sitting on the wire who should get some bids.

My bids will be as follows:

Pitts $10 replacing Dan Arnold
Najee $5 replacing Demarcus Robinson or Tyrod Taylor
Mitchell $5 replacing Robinson or Taylor

I don't expect any to hit but it will at least give an idea of how hungry teams will be in the early going.

 

[guaranteeed]

So I'm going to make it through week 1 thanks to Godwin/AB and no real mishaps, finishing up mid-pack. Time for the first guillotine to swing to see if I can upgrade anything.

There are two teams battling for elimination.....looks like the one that will get knocked out is called Frank Minnifield, who didn't replace OBJ or Keelan Cole in his lineup and also got put in jeopardy by Aaron Rodgers (pun intended). Minnifield's team going back into the pool leads to the following possibilities:

QB - Arod - I don't see Arod as a top 6 QB and therefore wouldn't offer much value over Baker. Pass

RB - Najee Harris/Nyheim Hines/McKinnon/Burkhead - Obviously Najee would be the big prize but with Henry and the NE RBs in the fold I can be a little more picky at this early point the tourney. Would imagine someone will go big on him. I might throw a lowball number in just in case.

WR - OBJ/Agholor/Rashard Higgins/Waddle - I'm pretty happy with my WRs at this point and don't really see an upgrade here.

TE - Pitts - Here's a potential prize worth plucking. Although Atlanta is a bit of a mess and Pitts is still a rookie. I can see putting in a $10 bid for a top six TE.

D - Baltimore - I haven't been as high on the Ravens D as the ADP has been saying, so they're probably not worth making a play for.

There is also Eli Mitchell sitting on the wire who should get some bids.

My bids will be as follows:

Pitts $10 replacing Dan Arnold
Najee $5 replacing Demarcus Robinson or Tyrod Taylor
Mitchell $5 replacing Robinson or Taylor

I don't expect any to hit but it will at least give an idea of how hungry teams will be in the early going.

What's the total faab budget

 

[Gandolf]

100

 

[guaranteeed]

I may go a bit higher on najee, but I dont mind strategy of waiting it out , you're already pretty deep, so you wanna save for huge upgrades

 

[Gandolf]

Well we already have a twist....commissioner has cut the 19th place team because they have an inactive account. 20th place team lives another week. I don't agree with the move but I'm not commissioner.

Anyway, the available players just got VERY interesting.

QB - Fitz & Goff - Fitz was the starter, tough break there. Neither are an upgrade.

RB - SAQUON, Sony Michel & others - Barkley should get a lot of attention. With Henry already I don't know if I want to spend big $$$ yet. There is still also Eli Mitchell sitting on the wire who should get some bids.

WR - Claypool, Aiyuk, DeVonta Smith, Peoples-Jones - good group here, could definitely upgrade my flex with Claypool, and Aiyuk should get better as the season goes on. DeVonta Smith might be the cheap upgrade for the flex.

TE - WALLER - Oh man, this is a CRITICAL player and massive upgrade. To win it all you're probably going to need either Waller or Kelce as a separator. Feel like he needs to be the #1 priority and I need to take a huge shot.

D - San Francisco - a good defense and maybe worth a buck but they may get lost with the marquee names on the list

To me Waller could be a $50 guy.

My bids will be as follows:

Waller $51 replacing Dan Arnold - taking my shot here
Claypool/Aiyuk/D Smith $5 each replacing Robinson - maybe I get lucky and catch one
San Fran $1 replacing Carolina
Pass on Barkley and hope someone else goes big for him.

Comments encouraged as always.

 

[Gandolf]

I got Waller! Paid a little bit of a premium since the next 3 highest bidders were $27, $27, and $26, but I valued him as a critical piece and moved accordingly. 12 bidders overall, top choice for most.

The other players available went for the following
Eli Mitchell - $29 - next highest bidders were only $7, interesting
Barkley - $20 - there were two $20 bidders - could be a great bargain if he gets it together. Same player got both RBs.
D Smith - $13 - next highest was $5
Claypool $12 - next highest was $11 - 9 bidders
Aiyuk $12 - I was the only other bidder at $5

Sony Michel went without a bid so I scooped him up in the morning for free and dropped Everett. I also replaced Demarcus Robinson with new #3 WR Cedrick Wilson for nothing.

Overall 18 of the 19 left have been active. So there is one more inactive team who might get weeded out before the points really count. That team has a massive stud in Tyreek, so watch out. I'm hoping the guy shows up because his team was 4th last week and is projected top ten this week. Still not a fan of chopping someone other than the bottom team each week.

Current lineup, projected to finish 3rd:

QB- B Mayfield
RBs - D Henry, D Harris
WRs - C Godwin, C Sutton, AB
TE - WALLER
Flex - J WHITE
K- Blankenship
D/ST - Carolina

Bench - Ruggs, Darrel Williams, C Wilson, Sony Michel, Tyrod Taylor

 

[GWarner27]

commish violating his own rules week 1 makes me cringe

 

[Gandolf]

So the Waller pick helped but having King Henry propelled me to a first place finish this week. The knockout team this week puts the following talent in play;

QB - Burrow & Heinicke
RB - Tyfreak, Allen Robinson, Robby Anderson
RB - Miles Sanders, David Johnson
TE - Tonyan
D/ST - Chargers

Obviously the Freak is a potential final puzzle piece. Robinson and Sanders would upgrade the current roster but may need to be further upgraded later. Burrow or Heinicke would be a replacement for injured Tyrod.

With only $49 left in FAAB I'm going to be at a disadvantage for a little while in collecting top end talent, but the current roster should hold its own for a couple of weeks if needed.. While a WR upgrade would be nice I think my priority needs to be RB and QB upgrades. I'll go relatively cheap on Hill, but enough to keep everyone honest.

My bids this week
Tyfreak - $15 (replacing Wilson)
Sanders - $5 (replacing Wilson)
Burrows - $0 (replacing Tyrod)

 

[Gandolf]

I was the only Burrow claimer so I got him for free. Also switched out Rodrigo for McManus for nothing; this league doesn't penalize misses and gives an additional point based on FG distance.

Tyreek went for $52(!) with a dozen bidders.
Jared Cook went for $25(!!) with only two bidders and the second bidder bid ZERO.
ARob went for $24, six bidders
Sanders was only $15 despite ten bidders
Robby Anderson was $6 with two bidders
Tonyan went for a buck with three bidders
David Johnson also went for a buck

My lineup is unchanged and projected as the top scoring team.....we'll see what happens. If Henderson is inactive then I may have to consider Sony Michel in the Flex but that Tampa run D is fierce.

 

[Gandolf]

Deleted last post because I read the rules wrong and thought the wrong team would be eliminated. Turns out the team that is in last overall gets eliminated, not the last place team for that particular week. So this isn't a true guillotine league as the upper echelon is usually safe even if they have one horrible week. Can't complain too much since I'm currently fourth overall but it goes to rule 1 in fantasy - understand the rules of the league you're in.

Anyway, quick recap of my current roster:

QB- B Mayfield or J. Burrow
RBs - D Henry, S Michel
WRs - C Godwin, C Sutton, Ruggs
TE - Waller
Flex - D Harris
K- McManus
D/ST - Cincinnati or Carolina

Bench - James White, Darrel Williams, C Wilson,
IR - AB

So I could use an upgrade at RB as Michel may fall back into his sub role and Harris has a brutal matchup. If AB is back this week as expected I can plug him into the flex. I can most likely part with White based on his injury reports. Will play it by ear with defense and QB, no rush to do anything yet.

The eliminated team put these guys in play:
QB - ARod - an upgrade but not a large one
WR - OBJ, Agholor, Waddle, Berrios, D Robinson, Zay Jones - ugly group except for OBJ, who does not upgrade me all that much
RB - Najee Harris, Hines, McKinnon, Burkhead - obviously Najee is the big prize, especially since its PPR.
TE - Pitts - nice player but I'm set
D/ST - Baltimore - they've been disappointing, probably not worth a play

Gonna have to throw something at Najee. Might throw a minimal play out there for Waddle as some depth over Wilson. Dude has 22 catches in 3 weeks.

There's three teams that are significantly less pointwise than the mid-pack teams. The RBs that could become available soon include Mixon, Taylor and CEH. I value Najee over all those at the moment.

My bids this week
Najee - $24 (replacing White)
Waddle - $1 (replacing Wilson)

 

[Gandolf]

Managed to snag Najee with that $24 bid as owners are still being a little conservative with their FAB. There were ten offers for Harris, with the next highest being $19 from the 1st place team who has McCaffrey on the shelf.

Other players bid on this week:
Himes $9 (1st place team) one other bidder at $3
Pitts $8 (3 bidders), next highest $5
Rodgers $7 (3 bidders) next highest was also $7
OBJ $11 (4 bidders) next highest was also $11
Waddle $3 (3 bidders) next highest was also $3

With remaining $25 I'll need to be on the lookout for a top 6 QB and a stud WR. At the going rates it'll be a squeeze to land both.

 

[Gandolf]

This week's eliminated team had a weaker roster than most, only 4 players got bids:

Dak $25, 5 bidders including my offer of $6 which finished 3rd. Second bidder was $8. Winner is currently last of remaining teams and 30 points behind the next best team, so Dak may come around again next week.

DK Metcalf $27, 8 bidders, second highest was $15.

AJ Brown $25, 4 bidders with second highest only $5. Winner was again the last place team, so he might show up on next weeks rolls.

Zack Moss $11, 9 bidders, second highest was $10.

Also coming of waivers was Damien Williams for $6, 5 bidders, next highest $4.

My only roster change was picking up Atlanta D and dropping the Bengals, as I'll be streaming D for the foreseeable future.

Newly waived are Ryan Tannehill and Hunter Renfrow, who both could improve my depth over Baker and Ced Wilson. I'll bid a buck for Renfrow and see if I can add Tanny for free on Friday.

Current overall position is 5th, 13 points out of the important 4th spot, 16 points out of second, 22 out of the lead. Current projection is #1 total for this week, but it was wrong last week.

 

[Gandolf]

So my squad balled this week and I put up the top point total for the week and now rank #1 on the year. This week's drop team is already settled, as TJ's Fireworks could not get out of last overall despite the spending spree last week. This puts a ton of serious talent onto the market:

QB - Prescott and Carr - with Burrow and Tannehill I'm not necessarily inclined to spend big $ for Dak, especially now that he's dialed down the running and McCarthy is going a lot more run heavy. I see Dak fantasy-wise just a shade above Burrow and Tannehill.

WR- Ridley, AJ Brown, Crowder, Parris Campbell and Humphries - Ridley is juicy now that Pitts has established himself as a legit complement, and I could absorb his bye next week better than most. AJ Brown has been struggling but he might be a cheaper get. The rest don't do much for me. I have an open spot that could add Crowder for short term depth.

RB - Mixon, Davis, Henderson, Latavius and Chuba Hubbard - I'll never have Mixon on a roster ever again after last year. Davis has become second fiddle to Cordarelle. Henderson is the big prize here, and with Sony on the team I could lock down that backfield. But he'll cost the rest of my FAB and will be the Flex, is he worth it over a WR upgrade?

TE - Fant - nice player, but no thanks

D/ST - Pittsburgh - hmmm. Schedule is appealing the next 5 weeks, but then gets tough. Not sure if spending $ on a D is worth it, most likely isn't.

I'll probably throw bids out for Ridley for the rest of my $25 FAB and Henderson at about $12 in case I don't get him. Probably won't get either as 8 of the top 12 still have at least $80 left. Looking ahead, the 15th place team will be about 60 points in the cellar going into next week and has a pretty scrub lineup (Trevor, JT, CEH and Renfrow are his best). So there won't be much available until week 7.