Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
An actual play? WTF? What year is this?
Anyway, Joe’s been watching football this year, which is probably just a terrible idea. Mainly because, well, does football exist without betting? I’m not entirely sure, but I also know I don’t want to find out.
Two games to talk about really quick.
Indy -3 -130
Really what I’d like to do here is get in on the ML, but I’ve taken some of the -3 as well. Here’s why. There are a few teams I’ve seen a lot of in the past few weeks and Indy is one of them. First, the bad. Philip Rivers will fuck your dog. This is not cool. He knows it’s not cool. But he’ll still do it. He can't help himself. He should be put on a list, tbh. Second, the Colts will be without their starting LT. This … is not good.
HOWEVER, here’s why I like Indy. First, they’re getting back DeForest Buckner on the DL. This was arguably the main reason I was on Tenny last weekend. This opened up a huge hole in the DL just as Tenny had vs Balty missing Campbell and we saw how that went. Add to this, they were down Johnathan Taylor at RB. All of this was a recipe for bad things against a team they’d already seen who knew how to play ‘em.
The good news is, both of these guys are back this week. Also, as I’m sure you’ve seen, now it’s Houston who’s missing guys. Will Fuller, done for the year, same thing with their corner Bradley Roby. Side note: Unless you’re Hunt, just stay off the PEDs. He’s got the cycle down, it’s a whole thing.
Point is, the Texans—who I do think will finish the year on an an up-note, are going to have to falter first, and I think that starts here. Indy needs this game, they do not have the tie-breaker with Tenny. They have to win, they are the better team, with the better defense, the better coach (sorry, Romeo), and they should get the win. Also, had Fuller and Costanzo been in there, I’d have looked at the over. As it is, there’s a chance Rivers is all happy feet all day and Indy has to count on their defense to get this one done. This feels like 24-17 or 24-20 to me. But maybe they get to the total as well.
Cleveland/Tenny under 53
Ah ha! You thought I was going to say you should be the Browns, didn’t you? Well, that too. But I have to play this under—and I HATE unders.
Now, the Very Smart People will tell you that Cleveland is an over team, and they will point to all the scores of their games before the last few weeks in Cleveland which were all in severe weather. And they will point to last week in Jax in a game where I actually had the over. And they all have a point.
But not here, not for me, no thanks. Here’s the deal, we’re moving into the money part of the year and late in the season, outdoors, you win by running the football. And guess what, both of these teams thrive on just that. Baker gets a lot of attention, good and bad, but this team is a run-first offense. And if you’re playing Cleveland, the way you win is to load up to stop that and make Baker beat you by sustaining drives. But go look at how the Browns do on third down. OK, don’t, I’ll tell you. They’re not good. They’re consistently below 50%.
Now you can say weather, and that’s cool. But they were 5-11 on third down against Jacksonville? That’s not great, Bob.
On the other side of the ball, again you have a team that wants to run. Which will be interesting to see how well that works this week as the Browns get back Miles Garrett. I still think Tenny will be able to do it. But either way, you're using clock. Which I honestly think Tennessee is fine to do here. I don't think they want to get into shootouts.
Honestly, part of me thinks there might be a lot of punting in this game.
Oh, and I think it’s a terrible spot for Tennessee. You’re off two huge road wins. You’ve just taken command of the division, and you’re playing a team that historically you’ve handled. And the line is that magical -6. I don't like it. I can see Tenny getting up like 17-3 and coasting. Or this game being like 13-13 late in the third.
I’m on the under and I like the +6, but I’ve also teased the Browns. I don’t see the winner of this game going over 27. I feel like 27-24 at worst. Maybe more like 23-20 or 23-17.
That’s it for now. Hope it helps a degenerate or two.
=)
Anyway, Joe’s been watching football this year, which is probably just a terrible idea. Mainly because, well, does football exist without betting? I’m not entirely sure, but I also know I don’t want to find out.
Two games to talk about really quick.
Indy -3 -130
Really what I’d like to do here is get in on the ML, but I’ve taken some of the -3 as well. Here’s why. There are a few teams I’ve seen a lot of in the past few weeks and Indy is one of them. First, the bad. Philip Rivers will fuck your dog. This is not cool. He knows it’s not cool. But he’ll still do it. He can't help himself. He should be put on a list, tbh. Second, the Colts will be without their starting LT. This … is not good.
HOWEVER, here’s why I like Indy. First, they’re getting back DeForest Buckner on the DL. This was arguably the main reason I was on Tenny last weekend. This opened up a huge hole in the DL just as Tenny had vs Balty missing Campbell and we saw how that went. Add to this, they were down Johnathan Taylor at RB. All of this was a recipe for bad things against a team they’d already seen who knew how to play ‘em.
The good news is, both of these guys are back this week. Also, as I’m sure you’ve seen, now it’s Houston who’s missing guys. Will Fuller, done for the year, same thing with their corner Bradley Roby. Side note: Unless you’re Hunt, just stay off the PEDs. He’s got the cycle down, it’s a whole thing.
Point is, the Texans—who I do think will finish the year on an an up-note, are going to have to falter first, and I think that starts here. Indy needs this game, they do not have the tie-breaker with Tenny. They have to win, they are the better team, with the better defense, the better coach (sorry, Romeo), and they should get the win. Also, had Fuller and Costanzo been in there, I’d have looked at the over. As it is, there’s a chance Rivers is all happy feet all day and Indy has to count on their defense to get this one done. This feels like 24-17 or 24-20 to me. But maybe they get to the total as well.
Cleveland/Tenny under 53
Ah ha! You thought I was going to say you should be the Browns, didn’t you? Well, that too. But I have to play this under—and I HATE unders.
Now, the Very Smart People will tell you that Cleveland is an over team, and they will point to all the scores of their games before the last few weeks in Cleveland which were all in severe weather. And they will point to last week in Jax in a game where I actually had the over. And they all have a point.
But not here, not for me, no thanks. Here’s the deal, we’re moving into the money part of the year and late in the season, outdoors, you win by running the football. And guess what, both of these teams thrive on just that. Baker gets a lot of attention, good and bad, but this team is a run-first offense. And if you’re playing Cleveland, the way you win is to load up to stop that and make Baker beat you by sustaining drives. But go look at how the Browns do on third down. OK, don’t, I’ll tell you. They’re not good. They’re consistently below 50%.
Now you can say weather, and that’s cool. But they were 5-11 on third down against Jacksonville? That’s not great, Bob.
On the other side of the ball, again you have a team that wants to run. Which will be interesting to see how well that works this week as the Browns get back Miles Garrett. I still think Tenny will be able to do it. But either way, you're using clock. Which I honestly think Tennessee is fine to do here. I don't think they want to get into shootouts.
Honestly, part of me thinks there might be a lot of punting in this game.
Oh, and I think it’s a terrible spot for Tennessee. You’re off two huge road wins. You’ve just taken command of the division, and you’re playing a team that historically you’ve handled. And the line is that magical -6. I don't like it. I can see Tenny getting up like 17-3 and coasting. Or this game being like 13-13 late in the third.
I’m on the under and I like the +6, but I’ve also teased the Browns. I don’t see the winner of this game going over 27. I feel like 27-24 at worst. Maybe more like 23-20 or 23-17.
That’s it for now. Hope it helps a degenerate or two.
=)
