AAF week 4 discussion

[spongerat]

Week 3 recap

I Was sort of surprised AZ had so much trouble with SL and struggled to score. The SL D held the second best O to only 15 yards but part of that is because of the interception in bad field position. I'd say that home teams seem to do better except that ORL wasn't able to stomp on Memphis. The line going into that game was 15 headed towards 15.5 in some places. The only game that went as predicted was Birm over ATL who have proven to be the worst team in the league pretty consistently so far.

My yardage models ended up being pretty accurate so my forecasting is ok, but finding the formula conversion to points is off. I can get it pretty close in retrospect with penalties and turnovers but as anyone who studies stats knows, not only is that inaccurate but the model parameters you use, the less valid the results actually are.

 

[spongerat]

Week 4 matchups

AZ
ATL
ATL is the worst team in the league and should lose even though they're at home. AZ can put up points against below average D. I could see the spread opening at double digits on this one. The total is hard to set on these potential blowouts but my model has 44. ATL is actually not horrible against the pass but AZ is one of the better rushing teams.

SD
Mem
SD is the better team here but their offensive numbers are a bit inflated at the moment due to SA throwing INTs last week and a pick6. Memphis is one of worst teams but they played AZ and ORL close, the 2 best O's. They got shut out against the top D in Birm. SD actually has the best rush O with 5.6 yards/carry and Mem is bad against the run but not significantly far above the average.SD is not a top D or a top O so I think SD wins in a close low scoring game. I think it'll open around -6 and my model says the total is around 39.

ORL
Salt
This is an interesting game that I'm having trouble getting a good read on. ORL has a great O and SL has a pretty solid D. My model has ORL winning by over a TD and a total of 51 but something doesn't smell right as this doesn't pass the eye test to me. ORL killed themselves with penalties last week otherwise they would have easily scored a lot more points. Looking at ORL past schedule maybe their O numbers were overstated due to playing 2 of the worst D's in the opening 2 weeks. That would explain how they came crashing back to earth against a team they should have had their way with. I'm probably staying away from this one unless there is a line that looks truely out of whack. I wouldn't even be that surprised to see SD a small favorite since they are the best team against the run. My best guess is a final score of around 23-17 for either team. Outside the stats, my personal prediction is ORL is a fraud team and SL will win as a small home dog.

SA
Birm
Last week confirmed my suspicion that SA is not good and now they're on the road against the far and away, best D in the league every week in Birm. I think SA is better than ATL on both sides of the ball so I wasn't surprised when my model said SA will manage less than 250 yards, Birm favored by 8 and a total of 40.

 

[spongerat]

AAF lines are due out today and I've done a little more work on my numbers. Here's what I predict for openers. Honestly I hope the numbers aren't too close to my predictions because I'll have no action.

Anyone else do any capping on this league?

SD 39
Mem +6

ORL 44
SL +3

SA 41
Birm -8

ATL 38
AZ -12

 

[spongerat]

Openers

SD 41.5
Mem +6.5

ORL 43.5
SL +4.5

SA 40
Birm -7

ATL 42
AZ -13

All of my numbers were close except the ATL AZ total. I think I have an idea of what model the linesmaker is using but that doesn't really help me unless a line is way off.

 

[spongerat]

immediate moves
Mem went to 6 and SL went to 4, both getting even closer to my lines. Maybe I'll start hitting the openers a little more.

 

[D-Woww]

damn I wish ih ad checked this forum out lately, I have been capping this league so much it may now be the crowning achievement in my "degenerate HOF" case

Are we sure Arizona is good? They came out like gangbusters but the last 2 weeks they have struggled against baaaaad teams.

I have faded Memphis the last 2 weeks and it hasn't worked. It should have last week, Orlando should have won by 20+ easily. At least Memphis finally went to Mettenberg. I assume he is gonna start again? Maybe without Hackenberg shitting himself, they may win a game or two? They def looked better with Mettenberg.

Having said what I said about Zona, Atlanta is sooooo bad. I may have to lay the points with Arizona there.

Birmingham was my sleeper team from the beginning of the season and i am glad I got them to win the ship at amazing odds. Having said that, I don't know if they have the offensive firepower to be laying 7. I wonder if San Antonio ever shifts from Woodside to Williams, woodside doestn seem to be doing jack shit.

The SD/Memphis under may be my favorite play on this slate. Netiher team can move the ball much and SD's points output last week was more flukey than anything

 

[D-Woww]

that Orlando/Salt Lake over looks kind of tasty

 

[spongerat]

Hey someone else is out there, welcome!

I don't think AZ is good but their starting QB went out last game and I believe is out for this game too. ATL is terrible and its been easy money fading them. They can't play on either side of the ball but 13.5 points is the current line and even though AZ is at home, Im not confident on either side. Memphis can at least play some D and have a good O line. Mettenberg showed some life and kept it close. I don't know what ATL even has to be in the game other than relying on AZ to not be able to score without their QB.

 

[spongerat]

Nice grab on Birm, they have been my favorite since midway through the w2 game. I still think they are the best team in the league. By far the best D and if their WR can stop dropping the ball they'd be blowing out teams even more. Personally I like Birm -7 as my favorite play of the week.

 

[spongerat]

Agree on SD, one of their TDs was a pick6 so the scoreboard isn't a fair showing of the O.

 

[spongerat]

Also agree on ORL over. I think they're a fraud team and they don't have a good D. The only thing I don't like about the over is Utah is a cold place to play for Florida boys. I'm leaning SL for side.

 

[D-Woww]

i took Birmingham preseason bc I thought that if there was one qb who culd turn this into an NFL opportunity it would be luis perez. he has been.....ok. not as good as I had hoped. but that defense has been solid.

wohlford is hurt? if so its actually not a huge deal, trevor knight was their "starter" through camp and expected to be their guy and they unexpectedly announced wohlford was gonna start bc he looked better in camp. then he came out week 1 and crushed, but since then hes been average. maybe knight does ok? I was never a fan of his in college. that game is gonna be a stay away

 

[spongerat]

Yeah AZ QB is out as far as I know. If I were to play that game I'd go with ATL+14 because I think its going to keep getting bet up, except I could never actually put money on a team that bad. I think this week could be very telling for AZ. They barely beat Memphis and split with SL. Week 1 they looked like possible contenders but if they don't blowout this ATL team I'll be suspicious.

 

[spongerat]

With the total dropping on SA/Birm to 37 I'm actually looking at the over. I have this total as between 39.5 and 40.5 right now.

 

[spongerat]

With the total dropping on SA/Birm to 37 I'm actually looking at the over. I have this total as between 39.5 and 40.5 right now.

Wow I'm seeing 35's now. I have a U37.5 and am going to see if it drops more then take the over to setup a middle.

 

[survive&advance]

I think i like Birmingham and Memphis this week. I mentioned last week (when there were two week one rematches) that I’m looking to target unders in rematches- none this week

 

[spongerat]

I think i like Birmingham and Memphis this week. I mentioned last week (when there were two week one rematches) that I’m looking to target unders in rematches- none this week

I'm on Mem +6.5 because I think it'll be a low scoring close game. My model has the total as 36.5 so I'm taking the under 39.5 bigger than the side.

 

[wiseplayer]

The teams aren't improving in this league. I thought it would but it remains unwatchable.

 

[D-Woww]

good hit with Memphis, although that game ended up way different than either of us thought it was gonna be. Mettenberger looks decent; crazy how bad Hack was for them. cant believe this was the one game I loved the under and it was the one game that turned out to be a shootout

I'm still fine with this league for what it is. It's never going to be really good quality football, but its fun to watch as a minor league type thing.

The Atlanta win was the first shocker of the year; I had zona in a few ML parlays (I know, I know) and they screwed me.

 

[spongerat]

Yeah WTF ATL and also Birm losing! Very surprised this week. On to week 5,