AAF week 3 discussion?

[spongerat]

Anyone know when the lines come out? I don't know the players and am stats only so I love these obscure small markets, it makes for soft lines. There are a few potential blood baths this week so I'm hoping the spreads aren't too large to make it easy on me.

Anyone have any thoughts on the totals? Right now my model has:
AZ/SL 45
Mem/ORL 44
Birm/ATL 39
SA/SD 36

 

[spongerat]

This spreads could get silly this week with the 3 best teams playing the 3 worst. We'll see though.

 

[B.A.R.]

Good idea. I wanted to let a few weeks play out before diving in myself.

 

[spongerat]

AZ -4.5
SLS 46

MEM +15
ORL 45

Birm -6.5
ATL 40

SA +2.5
SD 43.5

My totals were pretty close to the opener except SA/SD, I Don't know what the lines makers see in that one but I'll take the under all day there.

Spreads are a little weird. I expected ORL to be 2 TDs or more but I thought AZ and Birm would be as well. I'll gladly lay the chalk on those 2.

SA/SA depending on the sensitivity of a couple factors in my model one side or the other would win. I think the move against SD is from being home because I have this as a pk.

 

[wiseplayer]

Was on Spurrier over last week. Pretty easy money. Seems like the way to go in his games.

 

[jedi ninja]

AZ -4.5
SLS 46

MEM +15
ORL 45

Birm -6.5
ATL 40

SA +2.5
SD 43.5

My totals were pretty close to the opener except SA/SD, I Don't know what the lines makers see in that one but I'll take the under all day there.

Spreads are a little weird. I expected ORL to be 2 TDs or more but I thought AZ and Birm would be as well. I'll gladly lay the chalk on those 2.

SA/SA depending on the sensitivity of a couple factors in my model one side or the other would win. I think the move in SDs favor is from being home because I have this as a pk.

You'd have to imagine your "model" is as sensitive as one could get, seeing as how the league has existed for 2 games.

 

[spongerat]

You'd have to imagine your "model" is as sensitive as one could get, seeing as how the league has existed for 2 games.

Well it will get more sensitive as more data comes in but I'm sure there are smarter people with better models, I only have a masters not a PhD. There are 2 parameters that I am using a range for at the moment because the data is fully connected yet. It's similar to an LBO model if you know finance modeling, and adjusting the YoY% for inflation for example. Anyways the point is I get a range of numbers for each total that I have to round to half points. Plus there was a preseason game with stats that I am not using but I still broke down the numbers to get a rough starting point.

 

[survive&advance]

Had the under in az/slc and on under 44 in sa/sd tomorrow. These are rematches from week 1, normally in the nfl rematches benefit defensive adjustments

 

[spongerat]

Yeah I've been pretty consistent with betting unders in this league. So many turnovers can make it harder to predict.