BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Coming out of semi-retirement for this one.
3R match between Bernada Pera vs. Jelena Ostapenko.
The pick: Bernada Pera +350
I'll bet this live but things for the Latvian could go south very quickly if she shits the bed, and that could mean no value like the pre-match odds to be had even just a short time into the contest.
My short write-up version for this match-up: Fuck Jelena Ostapenko
Long write-up version: the fat little F has only ever once made it past the 3R of a hardcourt Slam in her career (14 appearances), and that was at the Aussie Open early this year (lost her QF 2 & 4 to 2022's Wimbledon champion). The key factor is the AO Slam is precisely that: at the beginning of the season, before the wear and tear of a full season of work has worn players down (that which precedes the USO), worn down players like this fat little F who isn't a fit fiddle. Also adding to her physical inertia for this encounter is the fact she's had to spend 4 hours on court through the first 2 rounds (both 3 setters) = 1R: 1h50m vs #35 ranked opp. / 2R: 2h17m vs. #67 ranked opp.). Now while Pera sports a ranking of #73, Ostapenko lost more games to her #67 2R opp. (15) than she did vs her 1R #35 opp. (9). What matters here is this cow doesn't have the patience to play proper tennis rallies. She gets bored quickly and simply goes for winners after a short period of back and forth hitting. When she's on, she can kill people very quickly. The key is, she's rarely on for 2 straight sets. And further, when she's off, she can beat herself against anyone. And she's more likely to beat herself when she's starting to wear down, like say, off the back off two 3-set matches and then her next opponent takes her to a 3rd set. Pera has the ability to take a less than hitting-all-the-lines Ostapenko to a 3rd here, and that's where I can see her then running away with the match.
Pera herself has never made it past the 3R of a hardcourt Slam, but she had made the 4R of a slam (FO), so she at least has been at this stage before and knows what it is to win. Also she's an American so crowd energy is going to be a factor in her corner here. Another tangential factor is the fact the last 9 matches of this past day were all won by favourites, which isn't usual for any stage of a Slam, which means it shouldn't be too long into day 5 that we see a dog or two start to bark. This match is part of a second group of two matches that are scheduled to follow the opening group of two. Of these two groups of 4 matches, none of the other dogs to me stand out more likely winners than Pera (only one dog is priced lower than Pera, Townsend vs Muchova). Pera has also spent nearly 4 hrs on court through the first two rounds (though played out 5 sets, not 6 like the Latvian) but she's won as a dog both times and to me that will have sharpened her game and her belief. She should relish being the hunted. She hasn't Ostapenko's roly-poly physique, I can't see it having the kind of effect on her it will have on her opposite.
At this price Ostapenko's total lack of success on hardcourt Slam surfaces married to Pera's ability on her day to claim a big scalp or two (Pera beat #9 Johanna Konta in the 2R at the 2018 AO: to jog memories Konta made the SF stage of the AO in 2016 & the QF stage there in 2017) married to the primal reason for this bet―Ostapenko's ability to absolutely shit the bed (she can deal out a mountain of UE and DF, gifting her opponent two handful of games without her opp. having to do anything but stand there and enjoy an early Xmas gift)―means these odds demand some kind of play. I'll save most of my ammo for live, but as I said if the cards fall like I think they very well can, Pera could well be in the +100s zone quickly and from there there's no value, because while little fat F can shit the bed, I've also seen her shit form turn on a dime and suddenly she'll find every improbable line in existence, thus rescuing a dead effort in ways you wouldn't believe possible (aka the 2017 French Open final). Pera could be gifted a huge lead and then have it snatched away from her before you know what's happened. If you're betting live and Peras doing the business early, much better imo to bet her to simply win individual sets than the full match, unless of course Ostapenko's serve is totally in the tank. She can recover from spraying a bajillion unforced errors, but if her serve isn't there it generally stays AWOL.
Fun fact: the last time Ostapenko won a 3rd straight match at a hardcourt tournament not held in Australia was on Sept. 9th, 2022.
Final fun fact: they've met once h2h, in 2019. Pera won 6-2 6-1. It was a non-Slam match not played on a hardcourt. The one important aside to that result, is Ostapenko was only ranked #83 at the time, here her ranking has climbed to #21. She's improved her consistency, that's true. But the meltdown specialist within her still lurks: she lost this year at her fave Slam venue (the FO) in the 2R to #59 ranked player by a scoreline of 3-6 6-1 2-6.
Have fun.
3R match between Bernada Pera vs. Jelena Ostapenko.
The pick: Bernada Pera +350
I'll bet this live but things for the Latvian could go south very quickly if she shits the bed, and that could mean no value like the pre-match odds to be had even just a short time into the contest.
My short write-up version for this match-up: Fuck Jelena Ostapenko
Long write-up version: the fat little F has only ever once made it past the 3R of a hardcourt Slam in her career (14 appearances), and that was at the Aussie Open early this year (lost her QF 2 & 4 to 2022's Wimbledon champion). The key factor is the AO Slam is precisely that: at the beginning of the season, before the wear and tear of a full season of work has worn players down (that which precedes the USO), worn down players like this fat little F who isn't a fit fiddle. Also adding to her physical inertia for this encounter is the fact she's had to spend 4 hours on court through the first 2 rounds (both 3 setters) = 1R: 1h50m vs #35 ranked opp. / 2R: 2h17m vs. #67 ranked opp.). Now while Pera sports a ranking of #73, Ostapenko lost more games to her #67 2R opp. (15) than she did vs her 1R #35 opp. (9). What matters here is this cow doesn't have the patience to play proper tennis rallies. She gets bored quickly and simply goes for winners after a short period of back and forth hitting. When she's on, she can kill people very quickly. The key is, she's rarely on for 2 straight sets. And further, when she's off, she can beat herself against anyone. And she's more likely to beat herself when she's starting to wear down, like say, off the back off two 3-set matches and then her next opponent takes her to a 3rd set. Pera has the ability to take a less than hitting-all-the-lines Ostapenko to a 3rd here, and that's where I can see her then running away with the match.
Pera herself has never made it past the 3R of a hardcourt Slam, but she had made the 4R of a slam (FO), so she at least has been at this stage before and knows what it is to win. Also she's an American so crowd energy is going to be a factor in her corner here. Another tangential factor is the fact the last 9 matches of this past day were all won by favourites, which isn't usual for any stage of a Slam, which means it shouldn't be too long into day 5 that we see a dog or two start to bark. This match is part of a second group of two matches that are scheduled to follow the opening group of two. Of these two groups of 4 matches, none of the other dogs to me stand out more likely winners than Pera (only one dog is priced lower than Pera, Townsend vs Muchova). Pera has also spent nearly 4 hrs on court through the first two rounds (though played out 5 sets, not 6 like the Latvian) but she's won as a dog both times and to me that will have sharpened her game and her belief. She should relish being the hunted. She hasn't Ostapenko's roly-poly physique, I can't see it having the kind of effect on her it will have on her opposite.
At this price Ostapenko's total lack of success on hardcourt Slam surfaces married to Pera's ability on her day to claim a big scalp or two (Pera beat #9 Johanna Konta in the 2R at the 2018 AO: to jog memories Konta made the SF stage of the AO in 2016 & the QF stage there in 2017) married to the primal reason for this bet―Ostapenko's ability to absolutely shit the bed (she can deal out a mountain of UE and DF, gifting her opponent two handful of games without her opp. having to do anything but stand there and enjoy an early Xmas gift)―means these odds demand some kind of play. I'll save most of my ammo for live, but as I said if the cards fall like I think they very well can, Pera could well be in the +100s zone quickly and from there there's no value, because while little fat F can shit the bed, I've also seen her shit form turn on a dime and suddenly she'll find every improbable line in existence, thus rescuing a dead effort in ways you wouldn't believe possible (aka the 2017 French Open final). Pera could be gifted a huge lead and then have it snatched away from her before you know what's happened. If you're betting live and Peras doing the business early, much better imo to bet her to simply win individual sets than the full match, unless of course Ostapenko's serve is totally in the tank. She can recover from spraying a bajillion unforced errors, but if her serve isn't there it generally stays AWOL.
Fun fact: the last time Ostapenko won a 3rd straight match at a hardcourt tournament not held in Australia was on Sept. 9th, 2022.
Final fun fact: they've met once h2h, in 2019. Pera won 6-2 6-1. It was a non-Slam match not played on a hardcourt. The one important aside to that result, is Ostapenko was only ranked #83 at the time, here her ranking has climbed to #21. She's improved her consistency, that's true. But the meltdown specialist within her still lurks: she lost this year at her fave Slam venue (the FO) in the 2R to #59 ranked player by a scoreline of 3-6 6-1 2-6.
Have fun.
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