A very simple answer with implications.

[tuck321]

The question was why did the Lakers win vs the Suns. It was specified that it was not in any way a trick question but that it might have implications for tonight. This was a 7 point game. Each team shot 32 free throws. The Lakers hit 27-32 for 84.4%. The Suns hit 21-32 for 65.6%. They lost 6 points here. Their season average is 78.4%. The Lakers season average is 76.67. The answer was --They won on Free throw shooting. They actually gained 6 points when they figured to lose points.
The Lakers have lost 10 games this season. 2 things standout in those games. They get beat on free throws and they get beat on 3's. They just go completely ice on their 3's The three point shooting bore this out with the Lakers hitting 3-12 while the Suns hit 10-24. Bottom line the Lakers way over performed on free throws while the Suns had a terrible session. And that was the game. In tonights game the Lakers are trivially better at 3's and free throws then Utah. Will they bounce down and shoot bricks from the line today? No idea but certainly possible coming off an 84.4 %
The ref's tonight.
Fraher ats for the home team 9-13-1
Forte 3-7
Javie 7-13

 

[JPicks]

I know one thing for certain and that is the Lakers should have plent of opps at the line as the Jazz consistenly lead the league in opponent attempts. Provided the Lakers aren't passive, and I don't think they will be, I'd expect to see them at the line a bunch tonight.

 

[SportsNut]

Good observation but I disagree. I really dont think its that simple and I did notice the Suns FT %. Here is how stats LIE.

You can say the Suns shoot FT's well BUT they take ONLY 21 or 22 a game. We know they believe that going to the FT line slows the pace of the game down. Thats why they dont shot many and allow there opponents to. While taking such a small amount of FTs most players are making ONLY 1 trip per game to the line which can skew the results from game to game.

They simply dont get to the line often so if you expand the sample size the results may vary especially if you are forcing other less capable shooters to make FTs. What I mean is you look at PHO FT shooting and the guys taking the bulk of the FT's are Amare , Nash and Hill. They avg 11.4 for 13.6 attempts on a team that takes 21.7 attempts. So outside of these guys you take ONLY 8 FTs a game basically 4 chances per contest . The big three shot 12 of 16 that game. Difference bewteen 83% for the season and 75% vs LAL somewhere bewteen a point and two in this situation.

(Suns lose -1.5 pts) for arguements sake.

So really you dont know what to expect % wise from the Suns when you start putting the rest of the team on the FT line.

That day the OTHER Suns were 9 of 16 from the line. Now that 16 FT attempts was DOUBLE what they were avg on the season.

It's like saying someone is an excellent shooter from 3 pt land when he attempts on average just 1 game. What will he shot when takes 3 or 4 a game ? Taking 2 FTs a game is basically 1 trip to the FT line per game. You cant take those avgs from the small sample size and expect the same pct's when you increase the attempts.

The 9 for 16 (56%) Suns were 5.9 for 8.4 (70%) going into that game. So really they lost about 2 points here. Maybe we can say they lost 3 to 4 pts due to there lackluster FT shooting.

For arguements sake the Suns lost 3.5 pts with there below avg FT shooting.

With LAL the key to dispelling that arguement is this. As I said LAL did something rare for them. They played basically there starters for the entire game.

Kobe is an 85% FT shooter (7.2 for 8.5). He was 13 of 14. (93%) Basically one more FT made. Simply put Kobe is a good FT show on a good day with an expanded sample size it really isnt a big deal to hit one more or less FT. Had he been 11 of 14 it would have been slightily below avg , 12 of 14 was avg for him so 13 of 14 should not constitute an abnormal performance really...

Fisher is a 91 % FT shooter he was 4 for 4.

So the two best shooters combined for 17 of 18(94.4%) maybe one more gained then there avg(10.2 for 11.8 , 86.4 %)

The rest of LAL shot 10 of 14.(71.4%).
Bynum 67% only 2.2 /3.2 avg - 6 for 8 vs Suns(75%)

Vujacic 91% only 1.6 /1.8 avg - 2for 3 vs Suns (67%)

So they avg 3.8 for 5 FT (76%) taken per game and hit 8 of 11 (73%)

Odom went 2 for 2 and Ariza 0-1 . They avg 4.6 for 6.7 taken so 2 for 3 is there avg.

Other 4 avg 8.4 for 11.7 (71.8%) and hit 10 of 14 (71.4) .

So really at best LAL gained bewteen a half a point and 1 pt at the line.

So the reason the FT disparity happened was simply LAL better FT shooters get more chances and the Suns getting DOUBLE the chances they usually get from there INFERIOR FT shooters.

Realistically the FT line differentials cost PHO 4.5 pts that day ( LAL being +1 above avg and Suns being -3.5 below but which I feel was due to putting other less skilled players at the line not a bad performance. It was a 7 pt game...

The Suns were 10 of 24 from three well above the 37% season avg. especially if you see there big three from beyound the arc was 10 of 20. So anyway they picked up 6 pts from three point land they normally dont get which negates any + / - that occurred from either teams FT Shooting. LAL actually attempted 8 less then avg and hitting 4 less then avg. So LAL underperformed from the 3 pt line probably losing 3 pts in the process..cause if LAL takes 8 threes on avg they should hit 3...

So really LAL lost 3 and Suns gained 6 which means it was a 9 pt benfit.



It;s an interesting connection but I dont feel like it really had much to do with the outcome. Suns could only stop 4 guys and that 5th guy whoever he was seemed to have a mismatch or step about most of the game...

 

[SportsNut]

I will NEVER get that HOUR of my life back!

 

[SportsNut]

Also if you noticee the Suns game vs Toronto which was previous to the Laker game. They were 21 of 29 the misses came from Skinner 3 of 6 and Amare 6 of 9. Amare is a pretty good FT shooter especially for a 6'10 game but there are gonna be some games where he misses a couple. The difference bewteen his season avg is bewteen 7 for 9 and 6 for 9. That one missed FT means nothing. However keeping Skinner more attempts and there FT avg will drop since he is about 55% career. So there really are NO abnormalties.

Yesterday they were 20 of 22 vs LAL with Amare going 8 of 10 nothing all that special. You had 6 OTHER players attempt FTs but only Barbosa with more then 2 attempts and he went 4-4.

 

[Wikeman]

I will NEVER get that HOUR of my life back!

Thanks for the read :cheers:

Breaking the game into such +/- from averages makes little sense to me, but your analysis confirms that the Lakers earned that win, it was not a lucky day.

 

[sportjunky]

great analysis man. you're spot on. I was gonna bring up the 3 point % difference and how it cost the Lakers 6 points, but you did a much better job.


With the way Bynum has stepped it up the past 2 weeks and with the way the guards not named Kobe have been shooting, the Lakers will be a tough matchup defensively for any teams not named the Spurs or Pistons.


Sportsnut, what's you're lean tonights game? I think I saw you were leaning Jazz in another thread, but I could be mistaken.

 

[tuck321]

You make some good points. Kobe has had some 18-27 nights but in general he is excellent. Fisher hits a high percentage but does not take that many. Players like Odom, Ronnie, Brown and Bynum do not usually shoot very well. Odom was 2-2 and he is a 66.3% shooter and Bynum was 6-8 and he is a 66.7% shooter. I do not think your argument about Suns free throws really holds up. Amare 7-10 is a 77.7% shooter. Bell 1-3 an 87.5% shooter. Their minds were not there Even Nash going 3-4, this is 92.6% shooter. Not trying to be dogmatic but the results I mentioned are strange and I still believe it was a mental impairment that killed the Suns there and I had the Lakers in the game.

 

[tuck321]

Guys I fully understand Laker 3's were terrible. Look at all the games they lose. This feature is almost always there and that indicates a mental weakness not a bad day. They get set to lose so they lose. In this Suns game both teams were trying to lose and one managed to do it. Please remember I have been pushing the Lakers all season but that has nothing to do with an accurate description of behavior.

 

[Sharpshooter]

Great stuff Sportsnut, thanks for your effort. Agree Lakers win was much above better percent of free throws.

 

[SportsNut]

You make some good points. Kobe has had some 18-27 nights but in general he is excellent. Fisher hits a high percentage but does not take that many. Players like Odom, Ronnie, Brown and Bynum do not usually shoot very well. Odom was 2-2 and he is a 66.3% shooter and Bynum was 6-8 and he is a 66.7% shooter. I do not think your argument about Suns free throws really holds up. Amare 7-10 is a 77.7% shooter. Bell 1-3 an 87.5% shooter. Their minds were not there Even Nash going 3-4, this is 92.6% shooter. Not trying to be dogmatic but the results I mentioned are strange and I still believe it was a mental impairment that killed the Suns there and I had the Lakers in the game.

Real quick I gotta run 4 now.

Odom was 2 for 2 that was is essentially one trip to the line. He does shot ONLY 66 % but I believe on slightily better then 4 attempts per. This is where your arguement is flawed IMO. If he goes to the line one more time and hits 1 of 2 or even 1 of 3 then he is line with his avgs at 3 for 4 or 3 for 5. Its just to small a sample to say it had an effect. If Shaq goes 2 for 2 from the FT line what does it mean? Nothing its just 2 attempts !! If Odom goes 1-2 do I would be foolish to say hey underperformed cause he hit 50% and normally shoots 66%. Its jsut 2 shots avgs dont mean much .

Your still missing the point. You can make 7.7 FTs in a game some days you hit 7 of 10 others you hit 8 of 10 we all know how thats hwo avgs work. You cant honestly say Amare was below avg 7 for 10 is 70% to hit 77 he needs to hit 7.7 in a game. Who can make 7/10 of FT in a game??

Look at how many attempts Raja Bell has to get his 88% clip...this year he has taken 16 FTS all season his career best and avg is 77/78%. He is a good FT shooter but great . If he went 3 of 10 u have a point but 1 of 3 is just to small to make a deal of or expect his to be in line with avgs.

Again whats 3 for 4 ? Nash missed one FT bro. He is human it happens on occassion. There is no way unless he attempts to a signficant amount of FTs say 8+ to get his his % that day in the 90's...4 of 5 is 80%..its just a miss here and miss there...

I will be back......

 

[jimbof20]

good reads

 

[Satyr]

and that's only free throws they're talking about. Imagine if they analyzed the Laker season .

 

[tuck321]

Woke up and thought about this awhile. Just gets stranger The free throws were 32-32 and Kobe was 13-1. This is Weird. Way past strange. The Suns by policy do not foul. Opponents average 22.2 free throws. Only 6 teams in the NBA give fewer few throws. The Lakers give on average 27.2 free throws. The 7th most in the NBA. Free throws in this game were 32-32 and Kobe got 14. The other game this year the Lakers got 20 free throws and Kobe was 3-3. Lets look at last year. The first number is total free throws for the Lakers. The second is Kobe
28 6-7
17 6-6
28 13-13
24 4-4
11 5-7 Those were in the playoffs
12 2-2
21 5-5
20 8-10
24 No Kobe
These were regular season
So over a 9 game sample this was easily the most free throws the Lakers have gotten from the Suns and in only one other game did Kobe get anything like this 13 of 14. Not sure where to go from here. Do not think the game was fixed. But this seems very, very strange to me.