A stat we need to be looking at for the All Star game

[scdoggy]

Which pitchers tend to give up runs in the early innings?

There are some pitchers (Mussina comes to mind immediately) that get hit hard in the early innings, but tend to settle down as the game moves on. Capping this game, one of the biggest angles for me is to find out which roster has more of these types on it. Does anyone have numbers on runs given up in the first inning for the starting pitchers (all of them) on each squad?

 

[B.A.R.]

Interesting thought and a very good one...

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Here's Ben Sheets for example:


</PRE>http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/psplit.cgi?n1=sheetbe01&year=2008#situa-times

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Here's the allstar link:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/previews/2008_all-star_preview.shtml

 

[scdoggy]

PErfect Jump. I was actually going through and doing game logs. I'll look this over and get back to you shortly with my thoughts. Or have you already analyzed this angle?

Thanks,

 

[scdoggy]

Interesting findings. Here's what I did:

For all starting pitchers, their first inning lines (Inning (1) and how many runs they gave up. For Example Halladay pitched 19 games and gave up 9 runs in the first inning.
For all Closers, I only counted their ninth inning performaces.
For Marmol, I took his 7th and 8th inning performances only.

I didn't include any SP that pitched on SUNDAY....

ERA for AL in these innings - 2.6969
ERA for NL in these innings - 2.6969

But what is interesting is the starting pitching:

NL ERA of starting pitching in the first inning - 1.91

AL ERA of starting pitching in the first inning - 3.65

Sheets has given up 5 runs in the first inning this year. Lee has given up 3 (both pitched 18 games).

But after Lee all of the AL pitchers have given up at least 8 ER. While in the National League the most number of runs given up in the first innings of this season is Cook, at 7....

The numbers:

Pitcher

 

[player82]

JumpOnBoard

Great site and got it bookmarked.
:shake:

 

[scdoggy]

Hit submit too early

Pitcher First innings(games) Runs
Sheets 18 5
Cook 20 7
Haren 19 3
Volquez 19 1
Zambrano 18 4


AL
Lee 18 3
Halladay 19 9
Santana 19 10
Saunders 18 8


Don't know about you guys, but I'm seeing one thing - there is a huge advantage with NL starting pitching that is diminished when you look at closers. Sure you have to account for the different hitters in each league, but it isn't enough to cover up what I'm sure you're getting at by now:

This is why the 5 inning line ws invented. NL at +130 for first five?

If you aren't on this play, you don't understand the definition of value. Here it is staring you right in the face.

NL first 5 innings +130 three units

 

[JumpOnBoard]

that's prolly a great bet...also because I feel that the AL relievers are much better in Nathan, Krod, Pappelbon, and Marino..

So NL's value decreases as the game goes on..

If you like NL anyways, I love your bet.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Hit submit too early

Pitcher First innings(games) Runs
Sheets 18 5
Cook 20 7
Haren 19 3
Volquez 19 1
Zambrano 18 4


AL
Lee 18 3
Halladay 19 9
Santana 19 10
Saunders 18 8


Don't know about you guys, but I'm seeing one thing - there is a huge advantage with NL starting pitching that is diminished when you look at closers. Sure you have to account for the different hitters in each league, but it isn't enough to cover up what I'm sure you're getting at by now:

This is why the 5 inning line ws invented. NL at +130 for first five?

If you aren't on this play, you don't understand the definition of value. Here it is staring you right in the face.

NL first 5 innings +130 three units

Great work dude.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

I wonder how those numbers would have shaken out if you could have included Webb and Lincecum as well..I don't think they would have driven that ERA up..

Although, Douchsickle and Kazmir aren't exactly pudwackers so maybe it woulda been a wash.

 

[scdoggy]

that's prolly a great bet...also because I feel that the AL relievers are much better in Nathan, Krod, Pappelbon, and Marino..

So NL's value decreases as the game goes on..

If you like NL anyways, I love your bet.

Exactly Jump - the AL closers are worlds better. Wilson and Wagner are not impressive when you look at their numbers.

And aside from Sherrill - the AL closers are lights out. There is no way Francona puts Sherrill in unless the game is out of reach. He's seen Sherrill and you think he will risk homefield in a series that his team has a great shot at playing in? No fucking way.

 

[SportsNut]

Interesting point though even though this is a good angle the SP do have different roles now then the normally do . They also may be more loose when entering the game today because they only have to worry about being warm enough for an inning or two and not about probably working to hard in the bullpen and wasting anything before the game starts .


I simply think the AL is better . They dominanted InterLeague Play .

Look at the AL lineup :

Ichiro
Jeter
Hamilton
ARod
Manny
Milton(Bradley)
Youk (the weak link sorry BoSox fans)
Mauer
Pedroia

Thats pretty deep IMO.

Hanley (stud) leadoff HR ? wouldnt be suprised
Utley (has slumped -slowdown after the start)
Berk
Pujols
Chipper - (like Manny so much more then CJ)
Holliday
Braun
Fuki
Soto

Think Holliday thru Soto could struggle vs tough RHPs but probably slightily better then AL 6 to 9. .

Backups about even in my opinion

Being its Yankee Stadium and the final year . I feel like the NL guys are more awe struck. Most of the AL guys have played there so many times especially with the heavily Boston contigent and of course of NYY players .

The AL has won 6 straight and is 10-0-1 Last 11 season. Its Yankee Stadium isnt fitting for the AL to win ? You know its special to the Jeter and Mo two class acts .Look at the HR derby who battled ? Two AL players .....

Last I like the AL's pitching more ...

Papelbon , Nathan , Rivera , KRod could be scoreless innings .....

Mix in Halladay , Ervin Santana with Lee starting

?? Dursch , Kaz , Soria be suprised to Sherrill or Saunders

NL
Zambrano and Haren surrounded by some question marks

Cook , Webb , Sheets , Lincecum , Dempster have had soem rough outings of late or vs the AL in general. Volzquez seen abit more not as sharp of late .

Lidge is the best reliever

Marmol , Wilson , even Wagner hae struggled at times badly ...

Sheets has actually not be as good as Lee statisically either .

Both have 18 starts

Lee's ERA is much lower at 2.31 compared to 2.85 and no DH for SHeets

Innings about 2 different(124.2 for Lee vs 123 Sheets) and hits allowed the same but Sheets 13 Hrs to Lee 5

Lee 20bb 106Ks to Sheets 28b 108Ks

Lee already pitched 7 shutout innings this year @ NY while Sheets first ever trip...

Played AL ML and might go RHE over 30 or 30.5 ......:cheers:GL

 

[scdoggy]

I wonder how those numbers would have shaken out if you could have included Webb and Lincecum as well..I don't think they would have driven that ERA up..

Although, Douchsickle and Kazmir aren't exactly pudwackers so maybe it woulda been a wash.

All you have to do is ask bro:

Adding numbers for DouchTits and Kaz help the AL a bit as their number are much better in the first than JizzWebb and LindseyCum:

Total AL ERA in first inning = 3.20
Total NL ERA in first inning = 2.17

**** Caveat - when doing these calculations I used actual runs, not earned runs. The information contained actual runs scored and didn't discriminate between earned and unearned. But with the differential we're looking at, this play is certainly worth a shot at +130******

 

[scdoggy]

I definitely agree with you that the AL is better, but when I see a price on a +130 dog and have a decent angle or two, I've gotta take my shot.

One question Nut - do you think any of the starters that pitched on Sunday have even a remote chance of seeing the field tonight? I have been busy with real life stuff for much of the day and haven't heard the media's take on this....

 

[scdoggy]

I'm also interested to see if the game is close at the end who Francona goes with. Say AL is up by one heading to the ninth. Do we see Papelbon or Mariano if the game is on the line?

 

[SportsNut]

I think he goes with Mo he seems to want to do the right thing and I think Mo has ben better so far in 2008 .

I guess what I am saying is the stats you are using though arent really relevant . The NL SP accrued there stats vs NL teams who have proven to be weaker while the AL SP have accrued their's vs the tougher AL lineups . Different situation IMO....

I still think the most relevant stats are last few starts and IL play . Sheets wasnt very sharp in either his L3 starts or IL play . He just lost to Colorado at home . Cook hit a bunch in IL.

I havent read the take on the guys who went Sunday but it doesnt really matter much to me . Kaz is slumping but tends to start quick and fade so if he does throw its okay , Dursch has been fantastic but would bet he gets the day off with his workload , Lincecum pitching in the NL West of all divisions is a great you ng SP but still a tougher task and look at what KC did to him and wouldnt mind seeing Webb getting involved.....

I am actually headed out to the Bronx soon. Going to watch it across the street @ Stan's Bar . So havent kept up myself....

let you know if I see anything else ....

while you have to lay -150 is the value enough that collecting +130 is better then possibly collecting 100 ??
It's probably likely the SP get used first but its not a certainity either ...

 

[scdoggy]

I guess its the old chicken or the egg thing. Are the AL pitchers numbers highers because they're facing better hitters and vice versa...

Or is the opposite true - NL pitchers are better and that's what keeps their hitters numbers lower?

You're numbers on IL play certainly support a play on the AL, as well as recent history. So you'll get no arguement/discussion from me here.

I'm just a dog bettor looking for a good angle to play this game. I like the UNDER quite a bit in this one but I do think these numbers hold merit despite being in different leagues. I don't see that much disparity between the hitters on these lineups. And looking at reserves, I may actually like the NL offense better.

(Can someone remind me again how Varitek is in this game. He's been stolen on as much as any catcher anywhere and his BA is barely enough to keep him on a team. I don't care how old and wise he is, for purposes of this game the fact that he is there is absurd)

But I digress - good luck Nut. You have a valid case of playing the AL, but I see an opening for a dog at +130 to come in and stay competitive for the first five. I'm taking a shot. Have fun at Stans!

 

[JumpOnBoard]

I think it would be impossible to argue that the AL isn't better..

My point was, if you are thinking of wagering on NL full game, from a value standpoint, I think this five inning bet is better value when it appears the AL has a significant advantage in the later innings..

 

[scdoggy]

I think it would be impossible to argue that the AL isn't better..

My point was, if you are thinking of wagering on NL full game, from a value standpoint, I think this five inning bet is better value when it appears the AL has a significant advantage in the later innings..

I couldn't have said it any better, though I do see an edge for the NL early in this game. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them get out to an early lead and falter down the stretch....

 

[Tide High]

i'm pretty positive Mo will be the real closer

 

[JumpOnBoard]

i'm pretty positive Mo will be the real closer

Tuesday, July 15, 2008
Papelbon says he should close, then defers to Rivera

<HR width="100%" noShade SIZE=1>ESPN.com news services

Confidence is a key element in a relief pitcher's mental makeup. And Boston's Jonathan Papelbon and the Yankees' Mariano Rivera, two of the game's best closers, don't lack for it.

<INLINE1>Consider Papelbon, who on Monday suggested -- before toning down his comments -- that he should pitch the ninth in Tuesday night's All-Star Game rather than Rivera, even though the game is at Yankee Stadium.


"We've both earned that right; us, by winning the World Series and having the opportunity of having our manager there and our team being represented, and Mariano by what he's done for this role, we're in Yankee Stadium and blah, blah, blah," Papelbon said. "It's not that easy. Everybody thinks it's a cut and dry answer, but it's not.


"If I was managing the team, I would close," Papelbon said. "I'm not managing the team, so it don't matter."


But Rivera feels the same way about taking the mound for the ninth. "It's definitely tough, but we're here in Yankee Stadium. I think I should get the shot," Rivera said. "I definitely would love to. Knowing [Red Sox manager] Terry Francona, I have a feeling he'll put me there if we have the opportunity to close the game."


Francona, who is managing the AL thanks to Boston's 2007 World Series triumph, was mum when asked who would pitch the ninth. "Out of the spirit of the game and competition, and having a little bit of fun, we're not going to announce the rest of our rotation yet," Francona said.

In additional comments on Monday, Papelbon lessened the suspense, saying Rivera should get the nod.


"I'm making a statement right now, saying I don't want it, I want [Rivera] to have it. I said all that earlier, but that's the way I feel about it," Papelbon said.


"This is what I think, of course I want to close the game out. I wouldn't be Jonathan Papelbon if I didn't want to close the game out," he said. "But at the same time, there's also things within this game I have to understand and people have to understand. It doesn't always work out that way.


"I feel I owe a lot to this game and that's one of the things I owe to this game, to let an elder statesman go ahead of me."

 

[RetroVK]

I love this kind of thinking , doggy.

great thread and info.

 

[SportsNut]

Good stuff fellas and GL...out the dooor in a sec....

Basically I guess my point is the NL SP is overrated because it faced inferior competition. Papelbon is making a stink and I think he is being bitch honestly. I mean Mo is one of the classiet guys in the game even freakin Arod stepped aside for Cal even if it was a good PR move only his part.......

I just think I could make a case that ever NL SP is pitching its worst ball or did so vs the AL .

I tend to like the under as well which is why I am play RHE over rather then total .....

GL

 

[SportsNut]

Should be interesting .....no play is bad in this game real tight line IMO and tight matchups

 

[scdoggy]

Yeah Papelbon is a douche for sure. Rivera has better numbers than him this season. No way Papelpube should get the nod

Pap - 14 runs in 37 ninth innnigs
Rivera - 4 runs in 36 ninth innings.

Who would you start?

 

[HereWeGo]

Tried to post the full article, but Lincecum is moste likely out for the NL tonight....dehydration/flu and in the hospital.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/20...ll_star/2008/07/15/heyman.lincecum/index.html

 

[BetCrimes1984]

For the sake of matters, Im assuming no pitcher who started on Sunday will make an appearance in this game, so no stats are related (off 1 days rest, one would imagine their clubs want them to be in use before the coming weekend, so it makes sense).


Starters

Days since last start
Santana - 2 days
Halladay - 3 days
Lee - 3 days
Saunders - 6 days (5+ days rest ERA 3.13 vs 4 days rest ERA 3.57 in 08)
Volquez - 2 days
Cook - 3 days
Zambrano - 4 days
Haren - 4 days
Sheets - 5 days (5 days rest ERA 2.54 vs 4 days rest ERA 3.37 in 08)

Recent road ERAs
1.85 last 6 - Halladay
2.18 last 6 - Saunders
3.07 last 6 - Santana
4.22 last 6 - Lee
2.17 last 6 - Haren
2.66 last 6 - Sheets
2.89 last 6 - Volquez
3.66 last 6 - Zambrano
4.91 last 6 - Cook


Relievers

# of appearances in recent days before the AS game
3 in 5 days - Soria
3 in 5 days - Rodriguez
3 in 5 days - Nathan
2 in 5 days - Sherrill
1 in 5 days - Papelbon
1 in 5 days - Rivera
3 in 5 days - Wagner
2 in 5 days - Lidge
2 in 5 days - Wilson
1 in 5 days - Marmol

Much like the starters off 1-2 days rest prior to this game, you have to wonder about the extent those relievers who have seen a lot of work in recent days (the 3 in 5'ers) will be used (if they play at all) in this game.


Ignoring the Sunday starters, the count is 6 AL to 3 NL starters/relievers who are either off less than normal rest or off decent recent use.



And as an aside -

ARod is hitting .200, slugging at .200, homering in 4.0% of his ABs, and K'ing in 36.0% of his ABs, since his wife filed for divorce.

Arod hit .316, slugged at .416, homered in 10.5% of his ABs, and K'd in 15.7% of his ABs, in the 10 games he played prior to that filing.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Hit submit too early

Pitcher First innings(games) Runs
Sheets 18 5
Cook 20 7
Haren 19 3
Volquez 19 1
Zambrano 18 4


AL
Lee 18 3
Halladay 19 9
Santana 19 10
Saunders 18 8


Don't know about you guys, but I'm seeing one thing - there is a huge advantage with NL starting pitching that is diminished when you look at closers. Sure you have to account for the different hitters in each league, but it isn't enough to cover up what I'm sure you're getting at by now:

This is why the 5 inning line ws invented. NL at +130 for first five?

If you aren't on this play, you don't understand the definition of value. Here it is staring you right in the face.

NL first 5 innings +130 three units

:cheers:

 

[SportsNut]

Nice work SC . Congrats . Worked out for both of us .

 

[scdoggy]

Thanks Jump.

Nut - I cracked a smile for you when the AL pulled it out in the end. Don't you wish they could all end up like this? Good debate, two stubborn bastards make opposite plays, but the good guys win in the end?:shake:

 

[SportsNut]

Thanks Jump.

Nut - I cracked a smile for you when the AL pulled it out in the end. Don't you wish they could all end up like this? Good debate, two stubborn bastards make opposite plays, but the good guys win in the end?:shake:

I thought it was a real good night . Really enjoyed the pregame festivities for once . On some level maybe it cause it was @ Yankee Stadium I was just more interested. Overall I thought they did a nice job with the introductions from players to King George to the HOF's. I thought it was actually a nice moment when the Yankee Legends were handed the balls by an obviously ailing George . I think anytime you see such a strong personality whether you loved him or hated him in such a weakened condition you feel sympathy . The one shit part for me was I started drinking quick when I got there and missed the OF introductions for the HOFs and Dave Winfield was my boy growing up . That was the only draw back it was fucking HOT as hell in the subway stations getting there...drenched and dehydrated by the time we got there . Walked in Stan's which lasted for 15 seconds because packed , NO AC and packed ...so watched it @ Billy's instead ...

Funny part was I was rooting for your NL bet as well when it was scoreless . I think everyone knows by now I suscribe to the theory what is supposed to happen will happen. So the NL being up 1-0 or 2-0 after 5 innings really didnt concern me . Once the AL tied it at 3 up kinda figured it was there night only strengthen when Mariano's get 2 DP's ....I didnt see any of the extra innings as we left after the 9th or maybe 10th ....train schedules get to thin that late ....anyway great night ...even hit my RHE over prop .....split NL 1st score and 1st inn score YES props plus the AL of course....

I didnt think you were stubborn and irrelevant was probably a poor choice of words on my part . I just felt we tend to see the best of the guys in the AS games and didnt have time to actaully say it the way I meant it . I saw the reasoning for your play and really think if your playing 1st 5 inn ML the dog is the best route if you see value . Unless you really think the game is a 50-50 tossup which I think actually both scenario's applied yesterday ...

I think my stuborness is really a sign I missed my calling as a lawyer . I have a BUT for every arguement .......:36_11_6:

GL bro ...

 

[scdoggy]

I echo your sentiments above. I'm always the devil's advocate, though I'm a big picture kind of guy that isn't as detailed as you are, so I'd probably be out on the streets if I'd have chosen the lawyer route....

As for the game - how could you not have liked it with all those Orioles on the field. Ripken, Brooks, Eddie - and of course the Great Early Weaver.

Interesting to see Winfiled don the Padres hat in addition to the Yanks....

It was a hell of an intro and quite moving. I found myself taking a few deep breaths getting nostalgic with all the greats on the field.

Was also great to see Tejada play as hard as he did. Yeah, he was probably a juicer, lied about his age, but if there was ever a guy that gives it all he's got every single time he hits the field its Miguel. I was glad to see him get recognized and make some nice plays in the field and at the plate to keep the game alive....

Was everything an all star game should be, and then some..

Good luck Nut..... Keep in touch