A question for someone smarter than me

[JML4481]

Obviously,with the change in extra point rule this season,many coaches in theory will go for the 2 point conversion now instead of the 1 pt gimmee.

So,and I know it's early and depends more on the game than maybe overall coaching philosophy,but has anyone made a list of coaches more likely to go for 2 now than just the XP(Oregon style/Chip Kelly,etc?

Also,if you are a better numbers person than me....what can the expected value become on the key numbers in the game now? (3,7,10,etc.)

 

[Alan Tongue]

http://www.theplayerstribune.com/nfl-extra-point-moved-back-john-urschel/

 

[nbafan88]

I think it'll change very little. If a XP point is missed earlier in the game, teams might go for 2... but that's always been the case and is a different story.

Maybe kickers will get better at kicking and adjust to the new length of FGs over the course of the season? It's possible.

 

[C-MAN]

Some chatter on the local channels in Pittsburgh that Ben hinted the Steelers will be going for 2 quite a bit this year. Could have more to do with losing their K to injury though.

 

[wiseplayer]

I can't see teams giving up a 97% chance to get a point.

 

[Lareux]

I can't see teams giving up a 97% chance to get a point.

When this was discussed before, the assumption was the XP would be from the middle of the field where the league average was 97.6%. The article Alan posted gives the expected % at 92.8%, the league average from the distance is roughly 94%...

30-35 yard FG accuracy in 2013 and 2014 by location: Left Hash 91.6%, Center 97.6%, Right Hash 93.8%


Using the expected % in the article, it makes mathematical sense to go for 2 since the 47.9% conversion of 2 pt conversions gives you .958 pts vs .928 pts for the XP. If you go by the league average above, it still makes more sense to go for 2 if you're using math...which no NFL coaches really want to do except for a couple/few (with Chip Kelly being the obvious one), or teams would be going for it on 4th down much more often and would handle goalline situations differently as well.

If the XP was from the center of the field it would tilt the decision towards kicking the XP, but even then, the coaches wouldn't be doing it based on math anyway, they'd be doing it (kicking the XP) because that's what they know.