BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
OK, the 3 previous installments of this thread have resulted in a 1-2 ATS mark, but because the desired lead-in events for said plays failed to materialize, no play has been made (slash advocated).
The target for consideration for this installment is the April 9th fixture in Toronto, where Milwaukee will be taking on the home team (yes, a clash of the Craptors vs Milshitty - whose game will go into the toilet first?)
Toronto
Toronto is revelling in an 0-3 SU & ATS streak (and, an extended 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS streak, which admittedly includes 4 SU & ATS losses sans Bosh). This very recent mini-slump capped off a 5th game in 7 days spell, which wasn't that far removed from a 5 game Western road trip. So missing Bosh and then having to get him up to speed off injury combined with scheduling has had it's obvious impact on this team's recent results. Noticably their "best" spell of results during this period came with a string of home games spaced out w/consistent rest (ok, 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS isn't great, but compared to what bookends these results, they're fantastic, lol). Anyway, the importance of this last fact is the Toronto now gets 3 days break before they face Milwaukee on home turf.
- when they play a game with their season record at exactly .500 or 1 game below .500 (their record sits at 38-39 currently), they are...
10-2-1 ATS in all subsequent games
_5-1-1 ATS when subsequently playing at home
_4-1-1 ATS when subsequently playing a non-playoff team*
*yes, their only SU & ATS losses in this spot came in their very lastest game vs Jersey.
- is 4-1 ATS when a Favourite & playing off 2+ days rest this season
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is away to Indiana on Sunday and after that fixture, they get a day's rest then are at home vs the Celts (who'll likely be w/out 1 to all 3 of their "Big 3") before travelling to Canada for their B2B (3rd in 4 nights) date with the Raptors.
- Now, befitting their pathetic record, the Bucks have a couple of striking negative trends running through their season's collection of stats. They presently sit on a 4 game stretch without having recorded a loss by 11+ points, or by 16+ points.
11+ point losses
Their longest previous stretches this season without a loss by 11 pts or more have been by 5 games (twice) and then by 4 games (twice). So their present streak sits almost at the precipice for the indicator that a Bucks DD loss is on the cards. Their average losing margin for when such stretches end, is 18.7 pts.
16+ point losses
Their longest previous stretches this season without a loss by 16 pts or more have been by 7 games (twice) and then by 6 games (once) - the next longest stretch is 4 games, which of course their present streak sits at. If the Bucks manage to avoid such a loss in their next 2 games, Toronto would be the tying fixture to match their previous season highs for avoiding such a fate. Their average losing margin for when such stretches end, is 21.1 pts.
- they are 2-13 ATS off their last 15 ATS wins.
- they are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games.
- they have already lost 75-106 in Toronto this season (w/no significant absences).
If you haven't already guessed the prospective play here is Toronto ATS, then I'll postulate that you don't wear shoes with laces. Toronto will be rested and no doubt gunning for a scalp to put aside recent woes, while Milwaukee will be in a spot thats extremely likely to = flatness (especially if they've competed well in their previous 2 games, see below).
The key for this play, as has been for all the other bubbling unders, is the lead-in results. Since Toronto doesn't play again before this game, the only way they can screw this up is if someone significant gets injured in practice (or robs a bank - dont underesrimate the stupidity and/or greed of these players). Which leaves the question of, what do we need/not need from the Fucks....
(1) Ideally we'd like the Fucks not to lose either of their next 2 games by 11+ pts. Heaven would be one narrow SU win & one narrow SU loss (& 2-0 ATS), a liveable purgatory would be one 9-12 pt loss & one narrow SU win/loss, hell (a play killer) would be 2 DD losses (incl. one by 16+ pts).
(2) Ideally we'd like the Fucks to at least win ATS vs Boston the night before this fixture (SU as well, even better). Their record for sometime off an ATS win has been horrendous, so to have them bring such a reality to bare the next night would suit this play down to the ground.
While the ATS win reality would be icing, of most importance is the losing margin aspect. These guys, as the above stats show, routinely (to the point of like clockwork) this season have put in stinkers and now its been 4 games since they lost by a 17 pt margin. Boston w/out their big 3 playing I'd expect get a decent effort from the Fucks (Charlotte this past night were B2B off a SU road win, w/out Wallace, and surely the Boston lineup w/out the Big 3 for the first time were out to prove they're not simply there to merely make up the numbers. Now they've proven that w/a comprehensive win, their desire to waste a ton of energy on meaningless fixtures should wane the more they play). Which means tomorrow's fixture against Indy is the hurdle this potential play has to cross.
The target for consideration for this installment is the April 9th fixture in Toronto, where Milwaukee will be taking on the home team (yes, a clash of the Craptors vs Milshitty - whose game will go into the toilet first?)
Toronto
Toronto is revelling in an 0-3 SU & ATS streak (and, an extended 4-10 SU & 3-11 ATS streak, which admittedly includes 4 SU & ATS losses sans Bosh). This very recent mini-slump capped off a 5th game in 7 days spell, which wasn't that far removed from a 5 game Western road trip. So missing Bosh and then having to get him up to speed off injury combined with scheduling has had it's obvious impact on this team's recent results. Noticably their "best" spell of results during this period came with a string of home games spaced out w/consistent rest (ok, 3-2 SU & 2-3 ATS isn't great, but compared to what bookends these results, they're fantastic, lol). Anyway, the importance of this last fact is the Toronto now gets 3 days break before they face Milwaukee on home turf.
- when they play a game with their season record at exactly .500 or 1 game below .500 (their record sits at 38-39 currently), they are...
10-2-1 ATS in all subsequent games
_5-1-1 ATS when subsequently playing at home
_4-1-1 ATS when subsequently playing a non-playoff team*
*yes, their only SU & ATS losses in this spot came in their very lastest game vs Jersey.
- is 4-1 ATS when a Favourite & playing off 2+ days rest this season
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is away to Indiana on Sunday and after that fixture, they get a day's rest then are at home vs the Celts (who'll likely be w/out 1 to all 3 of their "Big 3") before travelling to Canada for their B2B (3rd in 4 nights) date with the Raptors.
- Now, befitting their pathetic record, the Bucks have a couple of striking negative trends running through their season's collection of stats. They presently sit on a 4 game stretch without having recorded a loss by 11+ points, or by 16+ points.
11+ point losses
Their longest previous stretches this season without a loss by 11 pts or more have been by 5 games (twice) and then by 4 games (twice). So their present streak sits almost at the precipice for the indicator that a Bucks DD loss is on the cards. Their average losing margin for when such stretches end, is 18.7 pts.
16+ point losses
Their longest previous stretches this season without a loss by 16 pts or more have been by 7 games (twice) and then by 6 games (once) - the next longest stretch is 4 games, which of course their present streak sits at. If the Bucks manage to avoid such a loss in their next 2 games, Toronto would be the tying fixture to match their previous season highs for avoiding such a fate. Their average losing margin for when such stretches end, is 21.1 pts.
- they are 2-13 ATS off their last 15 ATS wins.
- they are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 road games.
- they have already lost 75-106 in Toronto this season (w/no significant absences).
If you haven't already guessed the prospective play here is Toronto ATS, then I'll postulate that you don't wear shoes with laces. Toronto will be rested and no doubt gunning for a scalp to put aside recent woes, while Milwaukee will be in a spot thats extremely likely to = flatness (especially if they've competed well in their previous 2 games, see below).
The key for this play, as has been for all the other bubbling unders, is the lead-in results. Since Toronto doesn't play again before this game, the only way they can screw this up is if someone significant gets injured in practice (or robs a bank - dont underesrimate the stupidity and/or greed of these players). Which leaves the question of, what do we need/not need from the Fucks....
(1) Ideally we'd like the Fucks not to lose either of their next 2 games by 11+ pts. Heaven would be one narrow SU win & one narrow SU loss (& 2-0 ATS), a liveable purgatory would be one 9-12 pt loss & one narrow SU win/loss, hell (a play killer) would be 2 DD losses (incl. one by 16+ pts).
(2) Ideally we'd like the Fucks to at least win ATS vs Boston the night before this fixture (SU as well, even better). Their record for sometime off an ATS win has been horrendous, so to have them bring such a reality to bare the next night would suit this play down to the ground.
While the ATS win reality would be icing, of most importance is the losing margin aspect. These guys, as the above stats show, routinely (to the point of like clockwork) this season have put in stinkers and now its been 4 games since they lost by a 17 pt margin. Boston w/out their big 3 playing I'd expect get a decent effort from the Fucks (Charlotte this past night were B2B off a SU road win, w/out Wallace, and surely the Boston lineup w/out the Big 3 for the first time were out to prove they're not simply there to merely make up the numbers. Now they've proven that w/a comprehensive win, their desire to waste a ton of energy on meaningless fixtures should wane the more they play). Which means tomorrow's fixture against Indy is the hurdle this potential play has to cross.
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