BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
3rd time's a charm? haven't played either of my previous "bubbling under" plays (1-1 ATS) because the lead-into results didn't go as "required". This is another play that demands a set of lead-in results to set it up.
Houston @ Dallas
On March 6th Houston plays Dallas in Dallas.
- For Houston it will be a B2B game after playing at home the night before. While the travel aspect isn't therefore significant, it will be their first road game following 5 straight home games, and will be subsequently followed by 2 more home games.
- For Dallas it will be their first game after a 2 day break, meaning with the right line this game could fit under the Home Rest vs B2Bs Trend.
Dallas
- is 6-0 SU & ATS their last 6 reg. season contests vs Houston.
- is 8-3-2 ATS this season off a loss and then playing off 1-4 days rest.
- has won 12 straight home games, 10 by at least 7 points.
Houston
- has won 10 straight road games (Yao appearing in all of them).
- is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS their last 6 games as a Dog (Yao appearing in all of them).
- has not suffered a 9+ point loss since Dec. 31st 2007 (every other team in the NBA has at least 1 such loss in the New year).
As can be seen, nothwithstanding their current overall 14 game winning streak (which may or may not survive until this fixture), Houston has a number of (other) streaks which either will or may be potentially at risk of ending come this Mavs fixture. And given the Mavs recent, and utter, domination of the Rockets aligned with the scheduling spot (rest vs B2B off a long home stand) and Yao's injury (logic dictates the more the Rockets play sans Yao, the more his absence is going to be seen to impact their results) it's a fair observation that this game has the potential to be Houston's ugliest loss margin wise so far in 2008. But as noted previously, there are some ideal lead-in results....
(1) While it would be nice for Houston to have their current winning streak in tact (which would mean 16 straight wins), thats actually not a prerequisite, since when teams off long winning streaks finally lose, they tend to suffer their next (2nd) loss rather rapidly as well. So even if Houston lost to Denver (playing as I type), such a result wouldnt sink this play. What would sink it would be if Houston then had that "rapid 2nd loss" to Indiana in their very next fixture (in that instance, one could see people pushing and shoving to jump off the Rocks bandwagon and get on the Mavs). At minimum Houston needs to go 1-1 SU (ATS irrelevant, but preferably not 0-2) vs Denver & Indiana (ideal sequence being loss->win, if they must register a loss at all).
(2) Dallas ideally needs to lose SU to Utah (ATS result irrelevant), meaning they would carry a losing streak as well as rest into this contest. This season coming off a loss in a non B2B situation, but without overly extensive rest, Dallas has been pretty formidable ATS. Nothing like an angry Mavs squad at home facing a team they have the wood on even before their best player (Yao) is absent.
Houston @ Dallas
On March 6th Houston plays Dallas in Dallas.
- For Houston it will be a B2B game after playing at home the night before. While the travel aspect isn't therefore significant, it will be their first road game following 5 straight home games, and will be subsequently followed by 2 more home games.
- For Dallas it will be their first game after a 2 day break, meaning with the right line this game could fit under the Home Rest vs B2Bs Trend.
Dallas
- is 6-0 SU & ATS their last 6 reg. season contests vs Houston.
- is 8-3-2 ATS this season off a loss and then playing off 1-4 days rest.
- has won 12 straight home games, 10 by at least 7 points.
Houston
- has won 10 straight road games (Yao appearing in all of them).
- is 5-1 SU & 6-0 ATS their last 6 games as a Dog (Yao appearing in all of them).
- has not suffered a 9+ point loss since Dec. 31st 2007 (every other team in the NBA has at least 1 such loss in the New year).
As can be seen, nothwithstanding their current overall 14 game winning streak (which may or may not survive until this fixture), Houston has a number of (other) streaks which either will or may be potentially at risk of ending come this Mavs fixture. And given the Mavs recent, and utter, domination of the Rockets aligned with the scheduling spot (rest vs B2B off a long home stand) and Yao's injury (logic dictates the more the Rockets play sans Yao, the more his absence is going to be seen to impact their results) it's a fair observation that this game has the potential to be Houston's ugliest loss margin wise so far in 2008. But as noted previously, there are some ideal lead-in results....
(1) While it would be nice for Houston to have their current winning streak in tact (which would mean 16 straight wins), thats actually not a prerequisite, since when teams off long winning streaks finally lose, they tend to suffer their next (2nd) loss rather rapidly as well. So even if Houston lost to Denver (playing as I type), such a result wouldnt sink this play. What would sink it would be if Houston then had that "rapid 2nd loss" to Indiana in their very next fixture (in that instance, one could see people pushing and shoving to jump off the Rocks bandwagon and get on the Mavs). At minimum Houston needs to go 1-1 SU (ATS irrelevant, but preferably not 0-2) vs Denver & Indiana (ideal sequence being loss->win, if they must register a loss at all).
(2) Dallas ideally needs to lose SU to Utah (ATS result irrelevant), meaning they would carry a losing streak as well as rest into this contest. This season coming off a loss in a non B2B situation, but without overly extensive rest, Dallas has been pretty formidable ATS. Nothing like an angry Mavs squad at home facing a team they have the wood on even before their best player (Yao) is absent.
