A play bubbling under the surface #2

BetCrimes1984

BetCrimes1984

CTG Big Brother
On Monday, Orlando faces Cleveland in a Home rest vs B2B spot. Compounding this spot for Cleveland is (1) the fact it will be their 4th game (& 3rd road game) in 5 days, and (2) they'll be playing off the run 'n gun style of Denver.


Cleveland

- is 3-6 SU & ATS in road B2B games.

- is 1-5 SU & ATS in a road B2B game after winning SU & ATS their previous game (their sole win here vs a team w/a losing record [IND]).

- in B2B games this season, has
1 instance of winning both their games ATS
7 instances of splitting their games ATS
2 instances of losing both their games ATS

- has played 1 road game that doubled as a 4th in 5 nights this season - they lost by 35 points (vs Detroit), after winning at home (SU & ATS) the night before.

- Cleveland's win over Atlanta was their 11th win as a Dog this season. Within 2 games following 9 of their previous 10 Dog wins, they have registered at least 1 ATS loss. The only instance where they didn't register such a loss, was when their following 2 opponents were Miami then Washington, whose combined records come to 33-64: Denver & Orlando's combined records come to 62-39.

- 10 of Clevelands last 12 road losses (83.3%) have been by at least 8 points.

- face their nemesis the San Antonio Spurs in 2 days.



Orlando

- after starting the season poorly at home (6-9 ATS) and strongly on the road (16-4 ATS), has since reversed trends at both venues (6-2 ATS last 8 at home, 4-5 ATS last 9 on the road).

- is 6-1 SU & ATS this season off 2 days rest (only loss came at home, while they still had a losing SU record at home).

- is 6-0 SU & ATS off their last 6 ATS losses (thats 17 straight games without registering consecutive ATS losses).

- is 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS vs Cleveland over their last 5 meetings (their only SU loss being in Cleveland).


It's fairly obvious that above and beyond the indicators for an ORL play that come from the home rest vs b2b thread (as long as they open no higher than -7.5, which I doubt they will), that it's an ideal (almost imperative) for such a play that Cleveland wins SU/ATS vs Denver, which kicks in all sorts of supporting facts on the side of the Magic. Cleveland, off hopefully a furious run 'n gun paced win, might then just be content, in their 4th in 5 spot, to overlook the Magic for the Spurs back at home in a couple of days.
 
if they lose today, ORL has enough indicators (recent record vs Cavs, off 2 days rest, recent home results, fact off a ghome loss, Cavs general record in 2nd games of B2Bs) to make it worth a play still, but I'd only go ahead if that was an ATS loss, not a SU loss with it.
 
Good stuff BC, I'm going to fade the Cavs today, just have to, all things considering. If they win, I'll be looking forward to backing Orlando tomorrow.
 
good info BC, but the cavs play at home tonight, so would it really be road b2b games or did i read too much into it?
 
Line will be steep if the cavs lineup is short. Hoping for a Clev SU tonight to set up a shorter ORL line tomorrow. Hope the situation fits and we don't see an opener over 7.5. Hope for less than 4 to really go at it more than a unit. Good find as always BC and nice call on Indy last night.
 
I hit Denver small (thanks to Satyr's cue) just in case the Cavs lost and fucked up my intended sizable play on the Magic. Depending on who is in and out for the Cavs, I'll still consider the spread, but like with Indy vs Port sizable line moves noted above have already sucked the value out of it. However, the total should be worth considering, since ORL is 5-1 to over their last 6 (which should keep it sizable despite CLE's injuries), and coming off a 230/100-100 game. But that again depends on who is and isnt lined up to play for CLE - if that mob can only total 83 at home vs Denver...
 
BC do you like a side in Orlando ? Seems like your on the under. With 230/ 100-100 trend and Cleveland constantly battleing injuries. I dunno how Cleveland breaks 100.
 
iceman5691 said:
BC do you like a side in Orlando ? Seems like your on the under. With 230/ 100-100 trend and Cleveland constantly battleing injuries. I dunno how Cleveland breaks 100.
Click to expand...

Best chance at a 100 might be letting LeBron take 40-50 shots. Otherwise I agree they look like they should be penciled in for 85 pts.
 
The Cavs are slumping and it's blatently evident in my opinion. I'll be putting a unit on the Magic as I think they run away with it and win by DD. Either way, thanks for the information and insight BC. Always quality.
 
iceman5691 said:
BC do you like a side in Orlando ? Seems like your on the under. With 230/ 100-100 trend and Cleveland constantly battleing injuries. I dunno how Cleveland breaks 100.
Click to expand...

I'd have loved getting ORL -4, -6.5 was so-so, not interested in -8. Cleveland off a 30 point loss will likely at least have a backdoor opportunity to cover 8/.5, but if they do it lends itself to an under result imo.
 
NickelAndDimer said:
what type of number should we be looking for to play the under?
Click to expand...

195-7 at least - ORL is U/O 11-11-1, avg 201.4 pts, at home

5 totals sub 190 (4 vs the East)
4 totals 190-195 (3 vs the East)
15 totals 196+ (9 vs the East)

----------------

Thnx Nut - ended up playing the Under.
 
illgauskus was ill from the poundin , he left tonight's game hobbled and flustered
damon jomes was nearly incapacitated by sheer somethingness
that it left him too fucked up to continue the bounce ball doctorine .
impossible you make
some really interesting points
and i always treat your analysis and theories as take a clean keen look at this writing .
cleveland is really shorthanded and depleted . backing them would require me to be hit by a car and then sign something while in pain relief by the drip drop in the hospital i'm swimming in pleasant waves scribble scribble...
rashard lewis hoisting no hesitation 3 balls as turkoglu creeps in for the leaner i'm now interested in seeing the upcoming course of events .
of course it depends......
 
Cleveland Cavaliers trip to Orlando gets late start due to mechanical problems with plane

Posted by Plain Dealer staff reports February 11, 2008 10:48AM

The Cavaliers short trip to Orlando has gotten even shorter.
The Cavs were scheduled to depart Hopkins International Airport on Sunday evening, following their loss to the Denver Nuggets. But due to mechanical problems with the Cavaliers plane, their departure was delayed until today.
The team is scheduled to travel to Orlando this morning and is scheduled to arrive in the early afternoon for tonight's 7 p.m. game against the Magic.
How many players are available for tonight's game is another issue. Guard Daniel Gibson (strained right hamstring), power forward Drew Gooden (right groin strain), center Zydrunas Ilgauskas (back spasms), and guard Damon Jones (right ankle sprain) will all be evaluated before the game before their status is determined. Gooden has missed three straight games and Gibson has missed two. Ilgauskas and Jones were injured against the Nuggets.
Sasha Pavlovic (left midfoot sprain) and Anderson Varejao (left ankle sprain) remain out with their injuries.
- Plain Dealer staff reports
 
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