BetCrimes1984
CTG Big Brother
Philadelphia has just ended a 6 game Western road trip (SAC, POR, SEA, UTH, LAK, DEN) and no sooner do they get their 1st home game in 2 weeks out of the way than they're on the road up to Canada the very next night. Brutal is a word that comes to mind. Here are the results for teams who endured such scheduling (playing at home 1 day off decent length road trips, then away again the very next night) from the last 2 seasons (the time period which the Post Road-Trip ATS Trend Thread stats concerns itself with) ....
... and the only team who won ATS in the B2B road spot was a team in the middle of a 15-game win streak who finished 40 games above .500 (61-21) for the reg. season, playing a team who finished 16 games below .500 (33-49), and laying only 1 basket (which is an observation above and beyond the fact no team won both their return home game & B2B road game ATS). While this is only 2 season's worth of results (and I could spend further energy seeking more, but won't) they simply logically make sense - A long road trip ends, a team is finally back home on short rest, and then immediately they're off travelling again. Just brutal.
Teams (from the last 2 seasons and this season thus far) in their 2nd game back off a 4+ game road trip, when that game is a road game, are 50-50 ATS when excluding this particular spot (which, as witnessed by the above figures, sees teams having gone 1-5 ATS). So Philly's spot at Toronto is tough enough as it is (teams doing no better than 50% ATS) without the 1-days-rest-then-immediately-B2B situation being factored in.
Could it be statistically any worse a spot for them?
- Toronto has 2 days rest between their Cleveland loss and their Philly fixture. Which means they come under the umbrella of the Home Rest vs B2Bs Trend Thread. Toronto opened a -7.0 Fav at home to Philly at the beginning of the season, and being 2-6 SU their last 8 games (& 2-8 ATS their last 10 games) there's no reason to suspect they will open anything much higher. And that would put them inside the umbrella of the Pick'em to -7.5 Home Fav range that that trend thread's tracking concerns itself with, ie. that group of Home Favs who are 57-11 SU & 47-19-2 ATS over this season & the last 2 seasons.
- Toronto will enter this game 17-17 SU on the season. When Toronto has played a game with their record sitting at exactly .500 this season, their results have been as follows...
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=oddrow><TD><NOBR>Nov 7 Orlando L 96-105............ Lost ATS
Nov 10 @ Chicago W 101-71..... Won ATS
Nov 16 Indiana W 110-101........ Push ATS
Nov 20 @ Dallas L 99-105......... Won ATS
Nov 24 @ Cleveland L 108-111.. Won ATS
Nov 28 Memphis W 103-91....... Won ATS
Dec 9 Houston W 93-80........... Won ATS
</NOBR>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
This is a team that hasn't lost ATS in such a spot since their season was just 5 games old (went from 2-2 to 2-3 with that home loss to ORL).
- Toronto is 5-1 SU & ATS their last 6 games vs Philadelphia, their sole loss coming on the last day of last season in a meaningless fixture for them, as they mentally prepared for the playoffs. They have dominated Philly pretty much ever since A.I. hit the road for Denver.
Since Philly were roughed up a bit the last 2 games of their otherwise successful West coast trip (losses by 31 & 13 pts), for this potential bet on TOR it'd be beneficial if they took care of business at least SU vs Milwaukee in their home game before this fixture. Better they enter this contest satisfied off a win, than hurting from 3 straight losses, with a home fixture vs Chicago on tap for them next. They could then quite easily/simply overlook this contest.
Philly is 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS vs divisional opponents not called New York, this season.
... and the only team who won ATS in the B2B road spot was a team in the middle of a 15-game win streak who finished 40 games above .500 (61-21) for the reg. season, playing a team who finished 16 games below .500 (33-49), and laying only 1 basket (which is an observation above and beyond the fact no team won both their return home game & B2B road game ATS). While this is only 2 season's worth of results (and I could spend further energy seeking more, but won't) they simply logically make sense - A long road trip ends, a team is finally back home on short rest, and then immediately they're off travelling again. Just brutal.
Teams (from the last 2 seasons and this season thus far) in their 2nd game back off a 4+ game road trip, when that game is a road game, are 50-50 ATS when excluding this particular spot (which, as witnessed by the above figures, sees teams having gone 1-5 ATS). So Philly's spot at Toronto is tough enough as it is (teams doing no better than 50% ATS) without the 1-days-rest-then-immediately-B2B situation being factored in.
Could it be statistically any worse a spot for them?
- Toronto has 2 days rest between their Cleveland loss and their Philly fixture. Which means they come under the umbrella of the Home Rest vs B2Bs Trend Thread. Toronto opened a -7.0 Fav at home to Philly at the beginning of the season, and being 2-6 SU their last 8 games (& 2-8 ATS their last 10 games) there's no reason to suspect they will open anything much higher. And that would put them inside the umbrella of the Pick'em to -7.5 Home Fav range that that trend thread's tracking concerns itself with, ie. that group of Home Favs who are 57-11 SU & 47-19-2 ATS over this season & the last 2 seasons.
- Toronto will enter this game 17-17 SU on the season. When Toronto has played a game with their record sitting at exactly .500 this season, their results have been as follows...
<TABLE class=tablehead cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3><TBODY><TR class=oddrow><TD><NOBR>Nov 7 Orlando L 96-105............ Lost ATS
Nov 10 @ Chicago W 101-71..... Won ATS
Nov 16 Indiana W 110-101........ Push ATS
Nov 20 @ Dallas L 99-105......... Won ATS
Nov 24 @ Cleveland L 108-111.. Won ATS
Nov 28 Memphis W 103-91....... Won ATS
Dec 9 Houston W 93-80........... Won ATS
</NOBR>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
This is a team that hasn't lost ATS in such a spot since their season was just 5 games old (went from 2-2 to 2-3 with that home loss to ORL).
- Toronto is 5-1 SU & ATS their last 6 games vs Philadelphia, their sole loss coming on the last day of last season in a meaningless fixture for them, as they mentally prepared for the playoffs. They have dominated Philly pretty much ever since A.I. hit the road for Denver.
Since Philly were roughed up a bit the last 2 games of their otherwise successful West coast trip (losses by 31 & 13 pts), for this potential bet on TOR it'd be beneficial if they took care of business at least SU vs Milwaukee in their home game before this fixture. Better they enter this contest satisfied off a win, than hurting from 3 straight losses, with a home fixture vs Chicago on tap for them next. They could then quite easily/simply overlook this contest.
Philly is 0-5 SU & 1-4 ATS vs divisional opponents not called New York, this season.
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