Hello,
Obviously if you read the thread title you have to be wondering what this is all about. From time to time, I like to discuss how I do most of my NBA betting nowadays and hopefully pick others brains as well via the discussion...
**The scenario last night was much like the scenario this past weekend the Atlanta/Miami game that I posted during the NFL in-game for those curious**
First lets look at our setup:
San Antonio was a short road favorite at Memphis with an opening total of 203.5/204.0. The total close around 206.0
The first half was ugly, like super ugly. The Spurs put up 31 first half points and the Grizzlies were not much better with 42 themselves for a total of 73 first half points. In today's NBA, that is not a common total of points in a half at all.
So, going into halftime, we'll use our closing total for the game for comparison purposes:
206 would mean approx 103 in each half (you can value your halves out however you would want). So, if you are assuming a game true to form we have a 30 point variance in the first half alone! This is a lot, basically a dream spot for me.
So, the 2nd half line was set at 103/103.5 and I saw a 104 +110 as well just off my quick glances.
**Now, before I go further, many of you will say "You saw a low scoring half and played an over in the 2nd half". Yes, in some ways this is true but in so many of these instances it is not**
I have a varying scale for 'variances'. Certain teams are assigned to different brackets to be honest. Most of this is 'math' betting but you need to know the tendencies of teams as well in order to make your plays at the correct times to maximize value (I'll give an example at the end).
So, I started off the 2nd half with a standard bet on over 104 +110. My bet 'for the game' is now SA-Memphis over 177 +110. The reason I start with the HT in this case is that if there is a hot start to the 2nd half I am leaving myself off a high probability winning bet, imo.
So, you ask, what if the 2nd half starts slow?
That is just fine with me. My belief is not many games are going to vary off the original game total by ungodly amounts. I started the 2nd half with a 29 point variance. I expect that number will be smaller at the end. Now, if they number keeps dipping then I keep adding on...
I'll generally allow up to 3 units to be bet in this situation. So, a slow start, I might wait for it to dip another 5 points then play again, then maybe again at 10 points. This is the 'feel' part of it all to be honest.
Last night, the 2nd half started out with a bang to the tune of a 33-30 third quarter. There was never a chance to add on, so I was on my 2nd half bet and that is it.
Now, simple enough, it looks like I am going to win that 2nd half bet --- I am done, right? Well that depends on you and what you are seeing. The LIVE total in this game got as high as 193.5 I believe. That right there is a 16.5 point middle. I did not play it at that number and honestly never got the chance to because the number was in the 180's most of the 4th until the game went offline.
**Now, the example from the other night, the game was a blowout and I bought back half on the under and middled the heck out of it (yes, I love middles)**
Final score last night was 96-86 for a grand total of 182.
Conclusions:
-Game went over the 2h numbers by 5-6 points.
-Game easily middled
-This actually got kind of tight late, it went over easy enough. There was 7 points in last 3 minutes as lead was DD's.
-The game still went under by 24 points off the closing number
Let me go to that last conclusion to use my example. I use a team like Memphis differently when it comes to overs. They are not the most 'modern day' NBA team so I always want 25 pts minimum variance from them if not more.
So, that is how I attacked last nights game. I almost wish the 3rd had started slower so I could keep hitting it. Even if the 3rd was lower scoring the 4th would have been higher scoring in most cases. Things tend to gravitate back towards center if you catch my drift... With that being said, it was an investment where I feel like I have a higher advantage than in most pregame wagers.
There is so much more that goes into it, but this is a nice simple example to look at.
Any personal thoughts or questions, fire away!
Obviously if you read the thread title you have to be wondering what this is all about. From time to time, I like to discuss how I do most of my NBA betting nowadays and hopefully pick others brains as well via the discussion...
**The scenario last night was much like the scenario this past weekend the Atlanta/Miami game that I posted during the NFL in-game for those curious**
First lets look at our setup:
San Antonio was a short road favorite at Memphis with an opening total of 203.5/204.0. The total close around 206.0
The first half was ugly, like super ugly. The Spurs put up 31 first half points and the Grizzlies were not much better with 42 themselves for a total of 73 first half points. In today's NBA, that is not a common total of points in a half at all.
So, going into halftime, we'll use our closing total for the game for comparison purposes:
206 would mean approx 103 in each half (you can value your halves out however you would want). So, if you are assuming a game true to form we have a 30 point variance in the first half alone! This is a lot, basically a dream spot for me.
So, the 2nd half line was set at 103/103.5 and I saw a 104 +110 as well just off my quick glances.
**Now, before I go further, many of you will say "You saw a low scoring half and played an over in the 2nd half". Yes, in some ways this is true but in so many of these instances it is not**
I have a varying scale for 'variances'. Certain teams are assigned to different brackets to be honest. Most of this is 'math' betting but you need to know the tendencies of teams as well in order to make your plays at the correct times to maximize value (I'll give an example at the end).
So, I started off the 2nd half with a standard bet on over 104 +110. My bet 'for the game' is now SA-Memphis over 177 +110. The reason I start with the HT in this case is that if there is a hot start to the 2nd half I am leaving myself off a high probability winning bet, imo.
So, you ask, what if the 2nd half starts slow?
That is just fine with me. My belief is not many games are going to vary off the original game total by ungodly amounts. I started the 2nd half with a 29 point variance. I expect that number will be smaller at the end. Now, if they number keeps dipping then I keep adding on...
I'll generally allow up to 3 units to be bet in this situation. So, a slow start, I might wait for it to dip another 5 points then play again, then maybe again at 10 points. This is the 'feel' part of it all to be honest.
Last night, the 2nd half started out with a bang to the tune of a 33-30 third quarter. There was never a chance to add on, so I was on my 2nd half bet and that is it.
Now, simple enough, it looks like I am going to win that 2nd half bet --- I am done, right? Well that depends on you and what you are seeing. The LIVE total in this game got as high as 193.5 I believe. That right there is a 16.5 point middle. I did not play it at that number and honestly never got the chance to because the number was in the 180's most of the 4th until the game went offline.
**Now, the example from the other night, the game was a blowout and I bought back half on the under and middled the heck out of it (yes, I love middles)**
Final score last night was 96-86 for a grand total of 182.
Conclusions:
-Game went over the 2h numbers by 5-6 points.
-Game easily middled
-This actually got kind of tight late, it went over easy enough. There was 7 points in last 3 minutes as lead was DD's.
-The game still went under by 24 points off the closing number
Let me go to that last conclusion to use my example. I use a team like Memphis differently when it comes to overs. They are not the most 'modern day' NBA team so I always want 25 pts minimum variance from them if not more.
So, that is how I attacked last nights game. I almost wish the 3rd had started slower so I could keep hitting it. Even if the 3rd was lower scoring the 4th would have been higher scoring in most cases. Things tend to gravitate back towards center if you catch my drift... With that being said, it was an investment where I feel like I have a higher advantage than in most pregame wagers.
There is so much more that goes into it, but this is a nice simple example to look at.
Any personal thoughts or questions, fire away!
