A little research on teams off long layoffs

[M.W.]

I arbitrarily defined a long layoff as 17+ days of rest. All instances will be unplanned and due to Covid cancellations.

There was a lot of noise in early games, but when I focused on teams playing game 4 or later some compelling trends appeared.

The most compelling trend was that favories do well (and go under) off a long unplanned layoff, and dogs do poorly (and go over!).

 

[M.W.]

Even counting early games (games 1-3). long rest has been good for favorites, bad for dogs.

Favorites/picks are 15-8 ATS (by 4.96 pts), 8-15 to the under (by 5.24 points).

Dogs are 5-11 ATS (by 4.47), 9-6-1 to the over.

 

[M.W.]

In game 4 or later, dogs are 1-7-0 ATS (avg -9.44 pts), 7-0-1 O/U (over by avg 12.25 pts)

Dogs this week with 17+ days rest are

Mary
Kan
ULM
Navy

 

[B.A.R.]

Awesome

 

[M.W.]

In game 4 or later, favorites/picks are 11-2-0 ATS (avg +7.27 pts), 2-11-0 O/U (under by avg -9.12 pts)
Favorites/picks this week with 17+ days rest are

Tex
Wyo
Clem
GT and Duke (it's a pick-'em)
TAMU
Charlotte

 

[M.W.]

In game 4 or later, favorites/picks off a loss are 5-1-0 ATS (avg +2.25 pts), 0-6-0 O/U (under by avg -16.25 pts)

Favorites/picks this week who are off a loss and have 17+ days rest are

Wyo
Clem
GT and Duke (it's a pick-'em)
Charlotte

Only one team had 17+ days to dwell on an upset loss -- Florida on Halloween. UF beat Mizzou 41-17 as -13.5, and stayed under a total of 61.5.

Teams in that spot this week are

Wyo off 34-24 loss as -3 at CSU
Clem off OT loss to ND as -4 (which is why I started looking into this)

 

[M.W.]

In game 4 or later, favorites/picks are 11-2-0 ATS (avg +7.27 pts), 2-11-0 O/U (under by avg -9.12 pts)
Favorites/picks this week with 17+ days rest are

Tex
Wyo
Clem
GT and Duke (it's a pick-'em)
TAMU
Charlotte

Where the posted total is greater than 52, teams in the bolded situation above are 10-0 ATS, by an average of 11.7 points:

Texas
Clem
GT/Duke
TAMU

 

[M.W.]

The real point of inflection is around +4

Dogs of 4+ in game 4 or later are 0-7 ATS (-11.64) and 6-0-1 O/U (+11.64)

Smaller dogs or favorites are 12-2 ATS (+7,18) and 3-11 O/U (-7.29)
They're a perfect 10-0 ATS (+11.55) if not off a cover by more than 16.

Texas
Wyo
Clem
GT/Duke
TAMU

 

[smo1a]

Great stuff MW

 

[2daBank]

Interesting stuff. Thanks for sharing!

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Wyoming was a steamroller.

Way to be MW.

 

[2daBank]

Wyoming was a steamroller.

Way to be MW.

i keep double checking my math to make sure that right, wyo ran for like 400 yards? Jfc!

 

[s--k]

Thanks for sharing!

So what I take away from it...the favorite, the better team, the team with more to be positive about to weather a layoff mentally and physically comes out better prepared to play their games.

 

[M.W.]

The real point of inflection is around +4

Dogs of 4+ in game 4 or later are 0-7 ATS (-11.64) and 6-0-1 O/U (+11.64)

This angle is now 13-1 on the fade (3-1 last week, 3-0 this week), with winners on Iowa State, Nevada, and SDSU yesterday.

 

[M.W.]

Smaller dogs [i.e., dogs of less than 4] or favorites are 12-2 ATS (+7,18) and 3-11 O/U (-7.29)
They're a perfect 10-0 ATS (+11.55) if not off a cover by more than 16.

Texas
Wyo
Clem
GT/Duke
TAMU

Now 17-5 ATS, with two losses by a half point (2-2 last week, 3-1 this week). The last qualifying play this week is on Charlotte.

The second narrower angle is now 15-2 ATS (2-1 last week, 3-1 this week). The last qualifying play this week is on Charlotte.

 

[L8kersFan74]

I know UTEP coming off long layoff this week...

You got anybody else this week @M.W. ?

 

[L8kersFan74]

Also, unders still hitting strong?