A few of my first weekend CFB lines

P

pstone

Pretty much a regular
to chew on.

My college football preparation begins in earnest on Memorial Day weekend, but I'm spending a couple of hours every day at this point doing "odds and ends."

Here are a few rough drafts I've come up with.

Any input/opinions/disagreements are appreciated:

at Clemson PK Florida State
at Notre Dame 2 1/2 Ga Tech
at Oregon 20 1/2 Houston
* Missouri 7 1/2 Illinois
at Georgia 8 Oklahoma State
at Cal 4 1/2 Tennessee
LSU 18 1/2 at Mississippi State
at Oregon State 7 Utah
at BYU PK Arizona
at Boston College 7 1/2 Wake Forest
TCU 13 1/2 at Baylor
at Wisconsin 11 Washington State
UCLA 17 at Stanford
* Colorado 6 1/2 Colorado State
at Va Tech 28 1/2 East Carolina
Washington 2 1/2 at Syracuse
at Nebraska 21 Nevada
Texas Tech 16 1/2 at SMU
at Texas 38 1/2 Arkansas State

I work very hard on constructing solid power ratings and making good numbers in the preseason. There are a lot of guys on this board who know their stuff, so I would appreciate any scrutiny.

Good luck,
Paul
 
Interesting openers no doubt..a lot of rematches...

Cal and Tenny should be very interesting after last year..

Love your attitude about getting started early. I'll chime in more as I garner more information in the coming weeks
 
Good shit Paul...You've got it just right about taking your power ratings very seriously, especially when trying to construct a good line - and early in the season if your numbers are solid, you can really make some good money (that's been my M-O last few years, truck through September, then try to win whatever I can in Oct, Nov, Dec)...
 
I think it would help me, and perhaps others, to get some of your general rationale behind these. Maybe not so much on the individual games, but maybe on your conference power rankings.

For example, if you said something like, "I think the ACC is going to be really strong this year, not as strong offensively as defensively, with teams like, X, Y, and Z having great defenses and teams like A & B having a real chance at going undefeated." Then there could be some context for looking at say that first FSU/Clemson game.
 
Joe. these numbers are largely

based on power ratings of the 119 Division I individual teams.

Personally, I don't, per se, make power ratings of conferences.

I've worked years to develop and fine tune my power ratings. Essentially, the number one team (which will be USC this season) starts with a PR of around 100 and the worst of the teams (Buffalo or Temple or someone similar) opens around 45 for a hypothetical line of 55 points at a neutral site.

Of course, some subjective analysis is going to be entered to get the final number.

A large percentage of the teams are in the densely populated area of roughly 73-to-77.

Good luck,
Paul
 
FSU will demolish Clemson.

FSU will build from a good end to last year and Clemson loses some of it's luster after a poor ending to 06.

It is tough to bet on a BOwden game but I see FSU winning by 13.
 
Cool, thanks for the clarification.

Another quick question, are you basing your lines on the ending rankings for the schools from last year or your estimated early ideas of what their rankings are going to be for this coming year?

As for FSU, what I recall about them at the end of the season was an interview with Bowden who said that all of his best years have come with QBs who fit the mold of what they have this year. I think he's a junior? Something like that, but whatever path he's taken, red-shirt, then backup, to starter--whatever it has been has been exactly what Bowden's succeeded very well with in the past.

So I'm tempted to say that if their defense is there this year they'll have a very good season.

But that's betting blind.

The only other things I feel I know anything about would be CU/CSU and I still think CU is a year away from being anything respectable. Last year their best weapon was their kicker and that guy's gone, and their offense is still changing over to Hawkins(?). So I wouldn't be surprised to see CSU beat 'em again--that's such a huge game for the Rams every year.
 
HUNTDOG said:
FSU will demolish Clemson.

FSU will build from a good end to last year and Clemson loses some of it's luster after a poor ending to 06.

It is tough to bet on a BOwden game but I see FSU winning by 13.
Click to expand...

I agree here. Clemsux lost 4 on the OL and will maybe be throwing the True Frosh out there at QB. They got 2 great backs but what good are they if there are no holes. FSU by 10
 
HUNTDOG said:
FSU will demolish Clemson.

FSU will build from a good end to last year and Clemson loses some of it's luster after a poor ending to 06.

It is tough to bet on a BOwden game but I see FSU winning by 13.
Click to expand...

Sorry to view my Anti-FSU views bro BUT FSU's offense will not turn it around that easily...JIMBO went NUTS when his QBs played like shite in the Spring game...that is a PROBLEM..and Clemson ALWAYS plays Tallahassee tough...........:cheers:

Mully
 
Wisconsin should roll Washington St.
Oklahoma St might upset UGA, they have Spurrier coming in the week after.
Also like Stanford if your giving them 17 points.
 
You are right. That will be a very tough game for both Ok St and UGA.. Hell of an opener..

Tenn and Cal will be real interesting. Going into last yr I thought Cal would win the game so I might stay away from that one.
 
Couple double digit favs that could be looking ahead to next week
TCU -13', plays Texas the following week
Oregon -20' plays Michigan the following week
VaTech -28' plays LSU the following week

I'd take FSU pk versus Clemson anyday.
 
Mully, you know I respect the hell out of you but it is like ETG said..a freshman QB and a new line will be too much to overcome..but you make a very good point saying the games are always close.

I see this as an easy game, and people will get scared and lay off becasue of the bowden factor...and rightfully so.

but not me lol.
 
not a lor fo looking ahead in week 1 or sept for that matter those games are rare so throw out that logic if ya wanna make some loot IMO. wait till the conference games for that like when michigan was -36 over ball st. hell me rj hunt and bar hammered ball st on that i remember cuz the next week they played ohio st if i am correct on that team. it was free money.
 
I think that will be close to the Texas line as well and I'm going to pound that number. Texas has just murdered there opening home opponent the last 5-6 years.
 
TroyStacks said:
not a lor fo looking ahead in week 1 or sept for that matter those games are rare so throw out that logic if ya wanna make some loot IMO. wait till the conference games for that like when michigan was -36 over ball st. hell me rj hunt and bar hammered ball st on that i remember cuz the next week they played ohio st if i am correct on that team. it was free money.
Click to expand...

Wasn't I the one who jumped on that gimme about 2 secs after the line was released and then all of you guys jumped on the CB bandwagon shortly thereafter haha. Just giving you a hard time bro..can't wait for the season to start!
 
Without doing any research, I would have to take the Cardinal and 17 at home against the Bruins.

Whatever...it'll be a fun summer discussing these games. Look forward to comparing some power rankings with you this year Pstone.

:7_17_4:
 
Without doing any research, I would have to take the Cardinal and 17 at home against the Bruins.

Whatever...it'll be a fun summer discussing these games. Look forward to comparing some power rankings with you this year Pstone.

:7_17_4:
 
Good stuff, guys.

What I can tell you (unless something crazy happens between now and then), is for sure that money will pour in on FSU hand over fist.

If this line at PK is offerred, my avice is to bet it as hard as you're comfortable betting (given that the wait time is staggering......3+ months) right now.

By kickoff, with all things remaining similar for both teams, FSU will be not only moderately favored, but also the public side.

Hitting FSU right now at PK will give you the opportunity to back off exposure 3 months from now and possibly snag a middle.

If FSU is PK -110, you could even hedge both MLs and lock in guaranteed cash at 40 cents, as I believe Clemson will be close to +150 on ML come kickoff.
 
Horses, I would certainly appreciate

the opportunity to share info/power ratings during the upcoming season. You obviously know your college football.

My e-mail is (admin) available by PM

Hope I did not violate any forum rules by posting e-mail.

Good luck,
Paul
 
Last edited by a moderator:
pstone said:
the opportunity to share info/power ratings during the upcoming season. You obviously know your college football.


Good luck,
Paul
Click to expand...

Paul...we would rather not see emails in main forum...its fo two things..

One/touting

Two/Spamming

Now, I figure you are not guilty of either but that is why we have the PM service available to members.

I will delete the email now so no BS'ers contact you but you know the proper way.

Thank for being cool about it.:cheers:
 
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