9/6 MLB Discussion

peelpub94

peelpub94

More Guards Than Shawshank
6-1 last night which means I play nothing tonight. Hendricks being priced nicely at -110. His main issue was giving up the long ball in the first half (17 of them), it destroyed him. He's made some apparent adjustments and has only given up 3 post ASB.
 
Ryno14 said:
Must’ve missed that. So that scares you off?
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No- just after a great night I normally like to lay off the next day. But at +money against a loser mentality team, I like my chances. Interestingly, Cubs are only 9-16 as road dogs this season.
 
peelpub94 said:
No- just after a great night I normally like to lay off the next day. But at +money against a loser mentality team, I like my chances. Interestingly, Cubs are only 9-16 as road dogs this season.
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I need to look at the numbers but I want to say Cubs historically have struggled against Strasburg
 
Inspekdah said:
I would expect runs in that Washington game...
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completely agree, if WSH can hit hendricks. Strasburg has never lived up to the hype vs ML pricing and Martinez is just trying to survive through the end of the year with a depleted bullpen thanks to trading assets and injury. Him not yanking Williams two night ago when he allowed 3 HR in an inning basically gave the game to StL who has had major bullpen issues in the past week. Harper jogging around the bases, don't think the team cares so i'm playing every + ML against them i can

peelpub94 said:
No- just after a great night I normally like to lay off the next day. But at +money against a loser mentality team, I like my chances. Interestingly, Cubs are only 9-16 as road dogs this season.
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that's silly, gambler's fallacy
 
GWarner27 said:
completely agree, if WSH can hit hendricks. Strasburg has never lived up to the hype vs ML pricing and Martinez is just trying to survive through the end of the year with a depleted bullpen thanks to trading assets and injury. Him not yanking Williams two night ago when he allowed 3 HR in an inning basically gave the game to StL who has had major bullpen issues in the past week. Harper jogging around the bases, don't think the team cares so i'm playing every + ML against them i can



that's silly, gambler's fallacy
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Understood, but after about 20 years of doing this, I notice these patterns in myself. It tends to work for me.
 
notice that you tend to overextend and play games you normally wouldn't because the previous day was good? I guess, but if you have an edge you should play it
 
Just read some stupid rules at Killersports.
Cubs can not win today.
Reds must win today
Arizona must win today
Cubs are 12-3 on Thursday
I assume there has to be something to this silly stuff
But definite lean to Cubs today
 
tuck321 said:
Just read some stupid rules at Killersports.
Cubs can not win today.
Reds must win today
Arizona must win today
Cubs are 12-3 on Thursday
I assume there has to be something to this silly stuff
But definite lean to Cubs today
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CIN are 3-11 in their last 14 overall. Reds rarely do what they must
 
Agree I Lean Cubs and Lean Arizona 2 teams with quality starters that urgently need to win games, Minor point but Atlanta confidence after last night has to be very low but I still need to check umps and think
 
The mlb.com site needs a major overhaul. Only site that just drags and drags and drags with massive memory leaks. Holy crap what an abomination.
 
Lauer new catcher seems to have a 9 ERA on 12 innings on 6 Plus
Castillo catcher 5,67 ERA 4.37 night ERA
Not very good but the Reds were playing very hard last night and the 9 ERA on 6 seems scary so far if I play a side it has to be Reds waiting on ump
Strasburgh 3.199 ERA on 4 fairly new catcher at least this year Kieboom 6 innings 3 ERA 4,59 night
Hendrick on 4 3.72 at night 3,72 4.05 catcher ERA3.72 ERA on 4 do not trust my descriptions
We known Hendrick is playing over his level for the team I am not sure where Strasburgh is need ump
 
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Maybe some massive over trends operating. History is over and Arizona off a day off very over
I am not saying under is impossible but rather difficult
 
Just saw these trends posted supporting the opposite. I'm laying off altogether.

  • The total has gone UNDER in the Diamondbacks’ last 11 games (avg. combined score: 4.91).
  • The total has gone UNDER in six of the Braves’ last seven games with a closing total of 7.5 or less.
 
Not really happy writing off the Padres on a 2 bad 6+ result but not sure what I can do about it. Essentially we do know the Reds are trying hard

Play OVER ARIZONA on the total in All games when playing with a day off
The record is 26 Overs and 9 Unders for the last two seasons (+16.60 units
 
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Grain key is worst on 5 his splits are mostly consistent but this awesome baseball player is only 1-4 in August. AZ is so enigmatic to me, so little exciting when they should be electric
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Grain key is worst on 5 his splits are mostly consistent but this awesome baseball player is only 1-4 in August. AZ is so enigmatic to me, so little exciting when they should be electric
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Feel like they were electric in previous years, but right now they are just meh. Their offense just isn't the same for one reason or another. Maybe missing Jake Lamb, even Brandon Drury hurts this much? IDK.. but they are a bottom 10 offense this year when they were top 10 the past 4 years.
 
Johnnyonthespot said:
Peel, it's awesome you started contributing so much this year. You are as knowledgeable about baseball as anyone. Huge asset here.
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Appreciate that man. It's funny, I'm probably in the minority in that I love the act of handicapping baseball more than I actually like making money and betting on it. I also love handicapping NHL as well. I've learned so much from so many of you guys over the years.. collaborating and shooting the shit on trends, stats and angles is what it's all about for me.
 
peelpub94 said:
Appreciate that man. It's funny, I'm probably in the minority in that I love the act of handicapping baseball more than I actually like making money and betting on it. I also love handicapping NHL as well. I've learned so much from so many of you guys over the years.. collaborating and shooting the shit on trends, stats and angles is what it's all about for me.
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Provolt and I know an NHL guy that does amazing chases. You should get an NHL discussion goin when time is right, cause we need, I really like it, but dont know shit
 
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Johnnyonthespot said:
Provost and I know an NHL guy that does amazing chases. You should get an NHL discussion goin when time is right, cause we need, I really like it, but dont know shit
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I will be there opening night front and center with a discussion thread. NHL is extremely difficult overall in my opinion. There are very few guys if any that stay consistently profitable year to year.. Weeble is definitely one of them but he is on another planet. Covers Hockey forum is actually really good, where the rest of their sports forums are cesspools.
 
Yep. And 3 awful at bats by Baez Riz and Ben just now. That was the old Javy coming back just now.
 
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