Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Bills thoughts for tonight
Offensively they come in having scored 3,0,& 7 points in the first half. Allen has been especially rough to start games, the play calling has been pretty vanilla to boot. They did score 22 2ndh lw in a losing effort vs NE but the offense was terrible for 3 quarters. Everyone in buffalo want to put the blame mostly on Dorsey but Josh has been pretty bad.
Now they can throw the 12 personnel out the window as Kincaid is the only healthy tight end available for tonight. I would expect the bills to run 3 wide sets a whole lot more and set up quick passes. Ball will have to come out quick for a couple reasons. TB blitzes often and I'd expect that to continue. I think Cook is a liability as a pass blocker, but they lose any kind of speed when Murray is out there. Kincaid had a solid week last week but it remains to be seen if he can do anything in the traditional te spot (where he most likely will be used today). I'm going to look at props in a second but I think he will have 5-7 targets minimum.
Allen is simply too good and the Bills need this game too bad for them to put up a dud offensively. I think they come out and look to put up points quick and get momentum rolling.
Defensively they are a hot mess. They started off the season looking solid but injuries decimated them. Now the Dline isn't getting the pressure when they were the strength. No milano means Dodsen/Dorian williams are starting instead of getting like 15% snap share. Secondary has nobody that can come close to covering Evans so I'd expect him to get a bunch of safety attention. Taron will be on Godwin on the slot most likely, I fear White coming out of the backfield. The Bills just managed to make a terrible Pats offense look good (29 pts!) I could see the Bucs putting up something in the 20-26 range.
Normally in this one I'd be on the Bills minus the points but the defense is just too banged up for me to lay anything over 1 score. At the same time I do think the offense will score, maybe even early for a change. I think the Bills tt and game over are good wagers. Looking at Bills tt o13.5 1sth as well though I'd much rather play a juiced 13
Offensively they come in having scored 3,0,& 7 points in the first half. Allen has been especially rough to start games, the play calling has been pretty vanilla to boot. They did score 22 2ndh lw in a losing effort vs NE but the offense was terrible for 3 quarters. Everyone in buffalo want to put the blame mostly on Dorsey but Josh has been pretty bad.
Now they can throw the 12 personnel out the window as Kincaid is the only healthy tight end available for tonight. I would expect the bills to run 3 wide sets a whole lot more and set up quick passes. Ball will have to come out quick for a couple reasons. TB blitzes often and I'd expect that to continue. I think Cook is a liability as a pass blocker, but they lose any kind of speed when Murray is out there. Kincaid had a solid week last week but it remains to be seen if he can do anything in the traditional te spot (where he most likely will be used today). I'm going to look at props in a second but I think he will have 5-7 targets minimum.
Allen is simply too good and the Bills need this game too bad for them to put up a dud offensively. I think they come out and look to put up points quick and get momentum rolling.
Defensively they are a hot mess. They started off the season looking solid but injuries decimated them. Now the Dline isn't getting the pressure when they were the strength. No milano means Dodsen/Dorian williams are starting instead of getting like 15% snap share. Secondary has nobody that can come close to covering Evans so I'd expect him to get a bunch of safety attention. Taron will be on Godwin on the slot most likely, I fear White coming out of the backfield. The Bills just managed to make a terrible Pats offense look good (29 pts!) I could see the Bucs putting up something in the 20-26 range.
Normally in this one I'd be on the Bills minus the points but the defense is just too banged up for me to lay anything over 1 score. At the same time I do think the offense will score, maybe even early for a change. I think the Bills tt and game over are good wagers. Looking at Bills tt o13.5 1sth as well though I'd much rather play a juiced 13
