7th fluke in a row? (GSW-DAL)

[Cafa]

In game 1, Baron Davis had an outstanding performance, and Warriors played very agressive defense that held Mavs to 37% FG. Mavs are to blame for that, too. I talked a lot about the lost team chemistry in Dallas, due to resting key players, and after being held with such an amazing defensive performance by the Warriors, I don't think the team chemistry is back. You can't get that on practice, you can only earn it on the court. Mavs will play better than they did in game 1, that's for sure, but I really don't think they'll come down on GSW like a storm - which is what most people expect. The Warriors are no pushovers, they have proven that.

I was waiting to read some statements by Nowitzki and Nelson, because the biggest question here is - how did Golden State handle that victory. Are they happy with it? Or do they think the work has just started? Nellie solved my dilemma by saying this: "We're just trying to seize the moment, enjoy that, have a little fun with it. So nobody's uptight. Relax. What's the worst thing that could happen? You could looooooose?! Big deal. I mean, we've lost 40 games this year already."

Meaning, the Warriors will be warriors again. If Nellie started talking how they need to win now, his team would freeze and underperform. And, Nowitzki is worried about his performance. He says that these guys are charging him hard, and as soon as they see him, there's a swarm around him. So, basically, he had two days to develop new tricks against such defending. Not enough. Avery Johnson, who didn't show any tactical knowledge in game 1, although he undoubtedly has it, also had two days to come up with something new. Not enough.

I'll pick the athletic and hungry team to beat a well-rounded team who plays static offense again. And Nowitzki won't have a good game again, at this exact moment he's thinking about ways to pass the ball to his teammates when he's double-teamed. He won't be the scorer tonight, and if GSW shows the same agression as they did in game 1, he won't get many boards either. Nellie is focusing his tactics on Nowitzki, as he made him a player which he is today, and knows all his weaknesses even better than Nowitzki does.

Golden State, 6.25, 1/10. Pinnacle.
Dirk Nowitzki under 35.5 points+rebounds, 1.95, 3/10. Bodog.




I actually think Dallas wins, by making a statement in 2nd half, and GSW just can't have a great shooting night again, but the odds on GSW are still far too valuable to be missed. Nowitzki is a much better bet, because even if things go wrong for GSW, they'll just push Nowitzki harder. Free throws could ruin the bet, but the line is higher than his season average for pts+rebs. Meaning, he should play better now than he did the whole season. 1-7 against GSW in two seasons, 6 losses in a row? Nowitzki making 4 FGs in game 1, which he only matched like a season ago, against GSW also? No way he'll be a star tonight...

 

[Satyr]

good luck with the play, I can agree with the fact that laying 9.5 at this moment might not be the best play, even though I would think Dallas wins this game. Gee figure right, odds like 1.05 will cash in! nice one Of course the value can be only on the Warriors.

You guys who were on the Warriors in Game 1 should be proud, you got it, nailed it right on the spot.

However, I still think Dallas is way better, not only because of their regular season record, I've seen these games play, and yes Cakeoff, I've seen post trade GSW as well, and even though they've improved immensely compared to what they did before that, I really thought them beating the Mavs in regular season 3 times to zero was a tad coincidental, when looking at Dallas schedule.

Their game 1 win showed it wasn't a fluke by no means (even though I never characterized it as a "fluke"), but this was more a lost game by Dallas. GSW did the job no doubts about that, but Dallas were HORRIFIC: ZERO GAMEPLAN, awful FG, awful play.

Sorry but I won't lay 9 points now, same as I didn't lay 11 in game 1.

However, I can be so free and say that I would lean that way, meaning Dallas to win by 15 would be my long shot goal.

When it comes to betting I will be on the under. 210 is a tad much, and I think Dallas will make sure to kill run and gun early on, even though game 1 was far from RNG and they still lost, if anyone is going to reach a hundred here it's going to be Dallas.

This COULD be a blowout, but I won't bet on it. I believe they could get their chemistry back by imposing their game early on. IF.

My long shot call is 104-90, which means I will be on the under.

GL Cafa. :cheers:

 

[cogenman]

I think Dallas just isn't attacking the Warriors weaknesses. When you got Al Harrington, playing the 5 spot, you need to take advantage of that on the offensive side. You need to pound it inside. The problem is, the Mavs don't have a low post player, somebody who can play with their back to the baskets like a Duncan, Yao Ming, etc. Diop has no offensive game, Dampier is too inconsistent, and Dirk when he gets the ball, he has to dribble to the basket, which is easy to defend him because he is too slow. W/o a low post presence with offensive game, the Mavs are not taking advantage of Nellie's small lineup. Duncan was the Warriors worst nightmare because he can score down low, but the Mavs don't have that kind of guy.

Also, with the Mavs not pushing it, it let's the Warriors defense set up. And that is where the Warriors suck, in transition defense. I've been to a bunch of games this year, and I watch the Warriors religiously, and they always give up a ton of pts in transition. But Avery not wanting to push it hurts his team IMO. I'm not saying run the full 48 minutes, but take advantage of some possesions where the easy bucket is there. Watch tonight, the Warriors will sag off Devin Harris and dare him to shoot the outside shot. He won't because he has no confidence, and his only advantage is his quickness.

 

[albyman32]

Cafa, you know where I stand on this. I'll add this about the Dirk bet. Dirk is gonna get the calls tonight and I think that line is pretty right on. Dirk scored a lot of points at the line last year in the playoffs by being aggressive. He was not aggressive at all in Game 1. I think you'll see more of him taking charge and getting calls. He may only make 5 FG's but he can easily get 15 or so from the line. Its up to Dirk if he wants to make it happen though. He usually has the ability to bounce back. However, he may decide to just take advantage of their doubling and pass to teammates and rack up assists. If thats the case then you're money.

GS ML is great value but I just feel Vegas is trying to tell us something with this huge spread again. I mean, isn't that just begging for GS money? I believe in this teams ability to respond because this is an extremely focused team. Thats how you win 67 games, by staying focused against fair and middling teams through the grind of a long season. Sunday was pretty much worst case scenario and Mavs will come back strong. GL with your wagers. I hope the Dirk prop hits for you as long as Mavs win.

 

[brewer]

i have this game as a 99-94 dallas win. no bets for me on this game tho. gl guys.

 

[B.A.R.]

Very good thoughts albyman.

Nice write-up cafa

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Great thread...

GL tonight...

:cheers:

 

[Gorgolon Lives]

Thanks Cafa. Dallas still has zero answer for Davis, and that alone will cover the #. And if Dirk disappears again tonight, I wouldn't be surprised to see another SU win.

 

[Satyr]

and if that happens again, I will be anxious to see Dallas to advance odds after dropping the 1st two at home...

 

[ForzaAzzurri]

When was the last time a #1 seed dropped the first 2 games at home to the #8?

This may be the game folks!... but I think only the Nuggz will take the first 2 as the underdogs upset the "better" seeds

 

[Cafa]

Great posts, guys. I'm enjoying TV broadcasts much more after reading your opinions, especially the ones that oppose mine. You have some very solid arguments there.

Just like I said, I have no idea who will win tonight. Mavs 51% - Warriors 49%. But I know this:

1) As cogenman said, Dallas isn't taking advantage of GSW weaknesses. And Avery Johnson doesn't seem to have a good plan.
2) We can expect GSW to shoot slightly worse, and Dallas to shoot significantly better. It should be enough for Dallas to win.
3) GSW is still on the run, Nellie helped by taking the relaxed underdog position (doggy style?), and Dallas is uptight and nervous. Nervous means no creativity and bad FG%...all that could change at some point in this game, though. All that Dallas needs is a good lead in HT and the fortune of war will change in their favor.

We'll see about Dirk. If he steps up and delivers a solid performance, he's a real hero. Try to put yourself in his position and you'll see how hard it is. I enjoy watching heros do stuff, so if he is a hero - I don't care about losing a few units.

I'd take the under too, but I learned my lesson yesterday on PHX-LAL. Maybe after some more research I add that to my site just before the game starts. The line is really overinflated.

This will be one hell of a game. GL with your plays.

 

[Satyr]

I already provided a writeup so I won't even bother opening a new thread, simply post a play:
DAL-GSW
under 209.5 (1.90 @ Pinnacle) 3 units

 

[tsizzle]

Personally I think Golden State matches up great and is able bother Dirk (he's played poorly in his last couple of matchups agains the Warriors) because of Nelson's tendency to allow ihis players to freewheel, switch off picks and throw different double teams at Dirk. Nowitzski sees double teams all the time but the difference with the Warriors is their ability to switch on the pick and roll with their depth in terms of personnel. That is, they have 4 interchangable players (Davis, Richardson, Jackson and Harrington) that can switch through picks and essentially cover most 1's-4's, so Dirk Doesn't get as many mismatches coming off the pick and roll. The Warriors can show and then pressure off that play which is his bread and butter. Tonight I think Avery will make a few key adjustment....first I think you're gonna see Terry playing more point, so Baron can't abuse Harris as much....if Davis is forced to the perimeter offensively he tends to overdribble and make poor decisions. I think you will see Stackhouse and Howard getting into the offense early and often to take some pressure of Nowitzski, and finally you Dirk will come out focused and draining that turnaround that makes him unguardable. In the end, I think Dallas will come out looking to set the tone tonight because they need to instill a little fear in the Warriors before making the trip to the Bay Area. I'm laying off the game because it's too much chalk to lay, but if I was forced to, I'd say Dallas rolls.

HERE'S AN INTERESTING QUOTE FROM JOSH HOWARD:

Too many misses: One of the Mavs' biggest problems Sunday was that they couldn't finish around the rim. The Mavs missed 11 layups or shots within three feet, Johnson said.
"That would have been 22 points," Josh Howard said. "We'd have covered the spread then."
Howard had an impressive dunk late in the second quarter, but he also missed several shots from close range. He finished the game 8-for-21. Nowitzki was 4-for-16, and Jerry Stackhouse was 0-for-6.
The Mavs shot 35.3 percent from the floor. It was one of their worst shooting performances of the season.

 

[Cafa]

Howard and Terry dominated this one