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Philadelphia 76ers vs. Detroit Pistons
Monday, January 25, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan
The Basics of Joel Embiid’s Importance
76er star center Joel Embiid is listed as “questionable” for tonight’s game.
Offensively, he is the team’s leading scorer by far. With 27.7 points per game, he averages 8.3 more points per game than Philadelphia’s next-leading scorer.
He is a similarly important rebounder and shot-blocker as he easily leads the team in both rebounds and blocks per game.
Embiid’s Importance on Offense
Philadelphia’s offense is centered around Embiid.
The 76ers run the fourth-highest frequency of post-ups and are the fifth-most efficient in executing this play type largely due to Embiid.
Of course, the 76ers have other options on offense. But they are less likely to pan out.
When Ben Simmons is unable to find something, he can dump it off to Embiid in the post.
Simmons is more likely to locate an opportunity in front of the basket, though, when Embiid is on the floor because Embiid can provide spacing with his ability to knock down three-pointers.
Backup center Dwight Howard has attempted zero three-pointers in the past week. From behind the arc, he doesn’t have the confidence or the green light that Embiid possesses.
Take a look at two videos to see what I mean. Go to 9 seconds in the first one:
You see a driving 76er contend with three Nugget defenders in the paint.
Yes, Tyrese Maxey makes the shot because highlight reels don’t tend to show missed baskets, of course. But he isn’t usually going to convert these opportunities against a collapsed defense.
Now look at 13 seconds in this video:
Embiid is behind the arc and he’s able to find Simmons in front of the basket. Simmons had backed down his man deep in front of the rim and now only has to execute a quick move in the non-congested space in front of the basket to convert a lightly contested shot attempt.
Other Reasons for Embiid’s Importance
Embiid is a top-level rim-protector, for which reason he has been elected two times to the NBA All-Defensive Second Team.
Besides shot-blocking quality, he provides depth and a lot of minutes.
With fellow center Vincent Poirier injured, the 76ers would only have Tony Bradley, in addition to Howard, at the center position. Bradley rarely gets playing time, though. He hasn’t seen any action since January 16.
What Embiid’s Absence Would Mean Vs. Pistons Defense
Structurally speaking, less spacing would hurt the entire 76er offense by limiting opportunities in front of the basket.
This limitation hurts Ben Simmons a lot because Simmons is notoriously unable to shoot the ball. He’s converting 20 percent of his three-point opportunities this season. Simmons needs to be able to attack the basket.
Whether Embiid is available or not, though, it’s hard to foresee where Philadelphia should derive its productivity from.
Maxey has been ice cold. After showing comfort and progress offensively, Maxey has scored a combined total of four points in his past three games. He had been averaging 18.8 points per game in a six-game span before his current cold streak.
Likewise, Shake Milton has accrued a total of 14 points in his past two games combined, although he averages more per game on the season.
With ice-cold players and the expansive void created by Embiid’s absence, Philadelphia’s offensive regression would help justify an “under” play.
Philadelphia would try to become more of a shooting team.
Against a Piston team that allows a high frequency of open and wide open three-point attempts, more three-point opportunities would indeed be available.
But the 76ers are a middle-of-the-road team in terms of three-point shooting percentage. They don’t have the weapons to exploit Detroit’s perimeter defense.
76ers Defense Without Embiid vs. Pistons Offense
I talked about how the loss of Philadelphia’s top scorer would encourage an “under” play.
In a sense, the same logic applies to Detroit.
While Jerami Grant is healthy, he has a tough match-up in Ben Simmons, who earned a spot last year in the All-Defensive First Team.
In the last meeting between these two players, on Saturday, Simmons limited Grant to 11 points. Grant converted three of his 19 field goal attempts.
Grant’s inability to score is crucial because he averages nearly 10 points more per game than any other Piston player. So Ben Simmons’ defense lowers the ceiling of Detroit's offense.
Given his history in Denver, it’s unusual for Grant to be the primary offensive option on a team. While he’s obviously having a productive season, he is going to see these bumps when he encounters the opposing team’s top defender.
But still, this is a Pistons offense that primarily wants to score inside. The Pistons attempt the sixth-highest rate of field goals less than five feet from the basket.
With this offensive proclivity, Detroit resembles Cleveland and Denver offenses that helped outscore the 76ers without Embiid by over 10 points.
Opposing offenses benefit from Embiid’s absent shot-blocking and from Philadelphia’s weakened depth in its interior defense.
The Verdict With Embiid
Philadelphia would benefit from a fourth-straight 30+-point scoring output from Embiid whose presence would open up the floor for Simmons even while the team’s offense is limited by its lackluster three-point shooting and the coldness of multiple higher-minute guards.
Defensively, the 76ers would have depth and quality in its interior defense to limit a rather one-dimensional Detroit offense that cannot count on Grant while Simmons is locked onto him.
With Embiid, let’s parlay the 76ers ATS with the under.
The Verdict Without Embiid
Three of the 76ers’ five losses have come when Embiid did not play. These losses were a two-point loss to Memphis, a 12-point loss to Denver, and a 24-point one to Cleveland.
Despite its offensive limitations, such as its inefficiency from deep, Detroit would produce enough inside while, defensively, the Pistons would have an easier time.
Without Embiid, I will take the free points and parlay the Pistons ATS with the under.
Betting Advice
BetOnline has the best odds available for the under at 215.5 at -110.
Currently, BetOnline has the 76ers favored by seven at -110 and the Pistons dogged by seven at -110. Parlaying the total and the spread at BeOnline would come out at +264.
Check Embiid’s status in order to discern whether you should parlay the under with the 76ers ATS or with the Pistons ATS.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Detroit Pistons
Monday, January 25, 2021 at 7 p.m. ET at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit, Michigan
The Basics of Joel Embiid’s Importance
76er star center Joel Embiid is listed as “questionable” for tonight’s game.
Offensively, he is the team’s leading scorer by far. With 27.7 points per game, he averages 8.3 more points per game than Philadelphia’s next-leading scorer.
He is a similarly important rebounder and shot-blocker as he easily leads the team in both rebounds and blocks per game.
Embiid’s Importance on Offense
Philadelphia’s offense is centered around Embiid.
The 76ers run the fourth-highest frequency of post-ups and are the fifth-most efficient in executing this play type largely due to Embiid.
Of course, the 76ers have other options on offense. But they are less likely to pan out.
When Ben Simmons is unable to find something, he can dump it off to Embiid in the post.
Simmons is more likely to locate an opportunity in front of the basket, though, when Embiid is on the floor because Embiid can provide spacing with his ability to knock down three-pointers.
Backup center Dwight Howard has attempted zero three-pointers in the past week. From behind the arc, he doesn’t have the confidence or the green light that Embiid possesses.
Take a look at two videos to see what I mean. Go to 9 seconds in the first one:
You see a driving 76er contend with three Nugget defenders in the paint.
Yes, Tyrese Maxey makes the shot because highlight reels don’t tend to show missed baskets, of course. But he isn’t usually going to convert these opportunities against a collapsed defense.
Now look at 13 seconds in this video:
Embiid is behind the arc and he’s able to find Simmons in front of the basket. Simmons had backed down his man deep in front of the rim and now only has to execute a quick move in the non-congested space in front of the basket to convert a lightly contested shot attempt.
Other Reasons for Embiid’s Importance
Embiid is a top-level rim-protector, for which reason he has been elected two times to the NBA All-Defensive Second Team.
Besides shot-blocking quality, he provides depth and a lot of minutes.
With fellow center Vincent Poirier injured, the 76ers would only have Tony Bradley, in addition to Howard, at the center position. Bradley rarely gets playing time, though. He hasn’t seen any action since January 16.
What Embiid’s Absence Would Mean Vs. Pistons Defense
Structurally speaking, less spacing would hurt the entire 76er offense by limiting opportunities in front of the basket.
This limitation hurts Ben Simmons a lot because Simmons is notoriously unable to shoot the ball. He’s converting 20 percent of his three-point opportunities this season. Simmons needs to be able to attack the basket.
Whether Embiid is available or not, though, it’s hard to foresee where Philadelphia should derive its productivity from.
Maxey has been ice cold. After showing comfort and progress offensively, Maxey has scored a combined total of four points in his past three games. He had been averaging 18.8 points per game in a six-game span before his current cold streak.
Likewise, Shake Milton has accrued a total of 14 points in his past two games combined, although he averages more per game on the season.
With ice-cold players and the expansive void created by Embiid’s absence, Philadelphia’s offensive regression would help justify an “under” play.
Philadelphia would try to become more of a shooting team.
Against a Piston team that allows a high frequency of open and wide open three-point attempts, more three-point opportunities would indeed be available.
But the 76ers are a middle-of-the-road team in terms of three-point shooting percentage. They don’t have the weapons to exploit Detroit’s perimeter defense.
76ers Defense Without Embiid vs. Pistons Offense
I talked about how the loss of Philadelphia’s top scorer would encourage an “under” play.
In a sense, the same logic applies to Detroit.
While Jerami Grant is healthy, he has a tough match-up in Ben Simmons, who earned a spot last year in the All-Defensive First Team.
In the last meeting between these two players, on Saturday, Simmons limited Grant to 11 points. Grant converted three of his 19 field goal attempts.
Grant’s inability to score is crucial because he averages nearly 10 points more per game than any other Piston player. So Ben Simmons’ defense lowers the ceiling of Detroit's offense.
Given his history in Denver, it’s unusual for Grant to be the primary offensive option on a team. While he’s obviously having a productive season, he is going to see these bumps when he encounters the opposing team’s top defender.
But still, this is a Pistons offense that primarily wants to score inside. The Pistons attempt the sixth-highest rate of field goals less than five feet from the basket.
With this offensive proclivity, Detroit resembles Cleveland and Denver offenses that helped outscore the 76ers without Embiid by over 10 points.
Opposing offenses benefit from Embiid’s absent shot-blocking and from Philadelphia’s weakened depth in its interior defense.
The Verdict With Embiid
Philadelphia would benefit from a fourth-straight 30+-point scoring output from Embiid whose presence would open up the floor for Simmons even while the team’s offense is limited by its lackluster three-point shooting and the coldness of multiple higher-minute guards.
Defensively, the 76ers would have depth and quality in its interior defense to limit a rather one-dimensional Detroit offense that cannot count on Grant while Simmons is locked onto him.
With Embiid, let’s parlay the 76ers ATS with the under.
The Verdict Without Embiid
Three of the 76ers’ five losses have come when Embiid did not play. These losses were a two-point loss to Memphis, a 12-point loss to Denver, and a 24-point one to Cleveland.
Despite its offensive limitations, such as its inefficiency from deep, Detroit would produce enough inside while, defensively, the Pistons would have an easier time.
Without Embiid, I will take the free points and parlay the Pistons ATS with the under.
Betting Advice
BetOnline has the best odds available for the under at 215.5 at -110.
Currently, BetOnline has the 76ers favored by seven at -110 and the Pistons dogged by seven at -110. Parlaying the total and the spread at BeOnline would come out at +264.
Check Embiid’s status in order to discern whether you should parlay the under with the 76ers ATS or with the Pistons ATS.
