NBA Parlay Picks of the Day
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Sacramento Kings
Tuesday, February 9, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California
Positive Form
Given the Kings' ongoing SU and ATS runs, it may seem undesirable to bet against them.
But the 76ers are far from cold themselves as they enter tonight’s contest on 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS runs.
So positive form isn’t a reason to be on Sacramento.
Although, the odds are moving in the Kings’ favor probably because bettors want to blindly ride their ATS streak.
The thing is, Sacramento’s ATS win streak masks some deficiencies in its game that the 76ers are well-built to exploit.
Exploiting Sacramento’s Transition Defense
One weakness in the Kings is their transition defense.
Overall this season, they rank second-to-worst in transition defense as measured by PPP (points per possession) allowed.
It is true that the Kings have improved their overall defense during their win streak. But their transition defense was seriously tested by only one team.
Only one team that poses a meaningful threat in transition has faced Sacramento during its ATS run.
This one team is Toronto, which, like Philadelphia, ranks top-five in transition points per game. The next-best transition offense that the Kings have faced is New Orleans, which ranks 14th in transition points per game.
When Sacramento faced Toronto, the Raptors lost 126-124. While Sacramento won and covered, it did so despite its defense.
In that game, the Raptors were able to accrue 14 steals in order to ignite their transition offense and accrue easy baskets.
So Philadelphia, which ranks fourth in transition points per game, will be able to replicate the threat in transition posed by Toronto.
Exploiting Sacramento’s Interior Defense
During its ATS streak, Sacramento has not proven that it can contain top-level scoring bigs.
It is true that the Kings beat Denver. But in their game against Denver they allowed Nikola Jokic to score 50 points.
So, again, the Kings beat Denver despite their interior defense.
While Denver does not complement its interior threat with a strong transition game, Philadelphia does.
In addition to excelling in transition, the 76ers boast Joel Embiid, their star center who ranks fourth in the NBA with 29.3 points per game.
Embiid has scored 33 or more points in each of his last four games. He promises to do so again tonight mostly by utilizing his physicality, his 40-pound edge over King center Richaun Holmes.
Philadelphia’s Transition Defense
Like Philadelphia, Sacramento relies heavily on its transition offense for scoring opportunities.
But the 76ers tend to excel against this sort of team, whereas Sacramento doesn’t, which is why the 76ers allow .13 fewer PPP (points per possession) against this play type.
Philadelphia is 7-2 SU against teams that rank top-10 in points per game in transition because they are more able to hold them to lower scoring outputs. One of those two losses came without Embiid in the lineup. Without Embiid, the 76ers always have massive difficulty beating even inferior teams.
Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs
Tuesday, February 9, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET at AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas
Situational Betting
Golden State’s edge tonight is purely based off the situation, which we can evaluate well at this point of the season because, by now, teams have repeatedly had to play against the same team twice in a row.
Bouncing back after a loss to the same team is something that the Warriors excel at.
Whereas the Spurs are unspectacular when facing the same team a second consecutive time, the Warriors are 5-0 ATS in this situation.
Match-up, here, does not matter. For example, the Clippers matched up well with Golden State because they own a highly ranked perimeter defense and the Warriors rely strongly on shooting threes.
While the Clippers won the first meeting 108-101, Golden State beat them by 10 points in the second meeting. That is a 17-point swing in the rematch in favor of the Warriors.
Key Warrior Players
One player who, despite San Antonio’s best efforts on defense, will be impossible to stop is star Steph Curry.
Curry’s late-game shooting kept Golden State in last night’s game.
His shooting has been on point as he’s converting 51.9 percent of his three-point attempts in February so far despite averaging 13.5 three-point attempts per night.
Kelly Oubre has also become a serious factor as he’s finally establishing his niche as a newcomer in the Warrior offense.
After hearing doubters for most of the season, Oubre is averaging 9.4 more points per game this month than he did in January.
Like notoriously strong defender Draymond Green, Oubre is benefitting from the small-ball that Golden State is forced to play without a healthy James Wiseman at center.
Green, who was last Defensive Player of the Year in 2017, is back to playing over 30 minutes per game.
The Verdict
Philadelphia will win with better play in transition and with Embiid inside.
Golden State will win thanks to its positive situation.
Best Bet: Parlay 76ers ML at -180 & Warriors +1.5 at -110 at +197 odds with Bookmaker
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Sacramento Kings
Tuesday, February 9, 2021 at 10 p.m. ET at Golden 1 Center in Sacramento, California
Positive Form
Given the Kings' ongoing SU and ATS runs, it may seem undesirable to bet against them.
But the 76ers are far from cold themselves as they enter tonight’s contest on 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS runs.
So positive form isn’t a reason to be on Sacramento.
Although, the odds are moving in the Kings’ favor probably because bettors want to blindly ride their ATS streak.
The thing is, Sacramento’s ATS win streak masks some deficiencies in its game that the 76ers are well-built to exploit.
Exploiting Sacramento’s Transition Defense
One weakness in the Kings is their transition defense.
Overall this season, they rank second-to-worst in transition defense as measured by PPP (points per possession) allowed.
It is true that the Kings have improved their overall defense during their win streak. But their transition defense was seriously tested by only one team.
Only one team that poses a meaningful threat in transition has faced Sacramento during its ATS run.
This one team is Toronto, which, like Philadelphia, ranks top-five in transition points per game. The next-best transition offense that the Kings have faced is New Orleans, which ranks 14th in transition points per game.
When Sacramento faced Toronto, the Raptors lost 126-124. While Sacramento won and covered, it did so despite its defense.
In that game, the Raptors were able to accrue 14 steals in order to ignite their transition offense and accrue easy baskets.
So Philadelphia, which ranks fourth in transition points per game, will be able to replicate the threat in transition posed by Toronto.
Exploiting Sacramento’s Interior Defense
During its ATS streak, Sacramento has not proven that it can contain top-level scoring bigs.
It is true that the Kings beat Denver. But in their game against Denver they allowed Nikola Jokic to score 50 points.
So, again, the Kings beat Denver despite their interior defense.
While Denver does not complement its interior threat with a strong transition game, Philadelphia does.
In addition to excelling in transition, the 76ers boast Joel Embiid, their star center who ranks fourth in the NBA with 29.3 points per game.
Embiid has scored 33 or more points in each of his last four games. He promises to do so again tonight mostly by utilizing his physicality, his 40-pound edge over King center Richaun Holmes.
Philadelphia’s Transition Defense
Like Philadelphia, Sacramento relies heavily on its transition offense for scoring opportunities.
But the 76ers tend to excel against this sort of team, whereas Sacramento doesn’t, which is why the 76ers allow .13 fewer PPP (points per possession) against this play type.
Philadelphia is 7-2 SU against teams that rank top-10 in points per game in transition because they are more able to hold them to lower scoring outputs. One of those two losses came without Embiid in the lineup. Without Embiid, the 76ers always have massive difficulty beating even inferior teams.
Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs
Tuesday, February 9, 2021 at 8:30 p.m. ET at AT&T Center in San Antonio, Texas
Situational Betting
Golden State’s edge tonight is purely based off the situation, which we can evaluate well at this point of the season because, by now, teams have repeatedly had to play against the same team twice in a row.
Bouncing back after a loss to the same team is something that the Warriors excel at.
Whereas the Spurs are unspectacular when facing the same team a second consecutive time, the Warriors are 5-0 ATS in this situation.
Match-up, here, does not matter. For example, the Clippers matched up well with Golden State because they own a highly ranked perimeter defense and the Warriors rely strongly on shooting threes.
While the Clippers won the first meeting 108-101, Golden State beat them by 10 points in the second meeting. That is a 17-point swing in the rematch in favor of the Warriors.
Key Warrior Players
One player who, despite San Antonio’s best efforts on defense, will be impossible to stop is star Steph Curry.
Curry’s late-game shooting kept Golden State in last night’s game.
His shooting has been on point as he’s converting 51.9 percent of his three-point attempts in February so far despite averaging 13.5 three-point attempts per night.
Kelly Oubre has also become a serious factor as he’s finally establishing his niche as a newcomer in the Warrior offense.
After hearing doubters for most of the season, Oubre is averaging 9.4 more points per game this month than he did in January.
Like notoriously strong defender Draymond Green, Oubre is benefitting from the small-ball that Golden State is forced to play without a healthy James Wiseman at center.
Green, who was last Defensive Player of the Year in 2017, is back to playing over 30 minutes per game.
The Verdict
Philadelphia will win with better play in transition and with Embiid inside.
Golden State will win thanks to its positive situation.
Best Bet: Parlay 76ers ML at -180 & Warriors +1.5 at -110 at +197 odds with Bookmaker
