ty cxbbum! NIce to start the week off 3-0, hopefully it continues. Haven't locked anything in yet, but I missed the huge +9.5 with Buffalo early in the week. That is a silly line, I don't care how good the Fins really are.
Bills notes.... Gilmore did not have a good effect on the last game, at least not as much as I thought he would. He clearly was not in top form and was erased out of a couple short passes that turned into big gainers. The offensive line played piss poor, I am more than happy to see Colin Brown gone as Legurski is the better all around olineman. The Bills no doubt miss Levitre. Spiller was pretty banged up throughout the whole game but still showed moments where he looked explosive. He will play this week but I think once again he may be limited, so Choice may see more time again. Thad took a beating, though despite the pressure I think he played a very good game. As I suspected the dropoff from EJ was not noticeable- if anything Thad throws a better sideline deep ball. Goodwin back into the offense injected some life, but any time Stevie J is out the wr core takes a major hit. I will say that was the best game TJ Graham has played, and likely the worst Woods played (2 catches for 9 yards on 6 targets). Going into the season I thought the Bills depth at wr would be a huge advantage, and this will be the first game that everyone will be suited up for. In the end I lost the ML wager but there was a chance, played the spread and tt as I was tailgating so I was ok but the ML would have been nice. Horrid ot for Buffalo.
Thad's first road start has to be the reason this line is so high, and I do worry about Wake getting to Thad in this one. I think the loss of Ellerbe in the middle could be big... with SJ back and Chandler I hope the Bills will be able to establish a run and work the middle on play action. I'm not sold on the Fins defense as a top tir one... this is by far the best rushing attack they have faced, or at the least the most dedicated to the run. Prior to this game they faced the #27, 25, 23 8th & 22nd ranked rushing attacks. The Colts were the best run game they faced, now they face #3 with Fred/Spiller. Spiller has had 140+ all purpose last 3 times he faced Miami. My biggest concern is a quick big lead from Miami that forces the Bills to abandon the run, but I think the secondary playing together another week has to make them gel more. Brooks is playing this week. Mario is up against the o lineman that has allowed 5 sacks, so I can see the Bills getting to Tannehill. I really don't fear the Fins run game all that much but I do worry about Wallace and the big play. 43 is a tight number but I think I could only play Bills overs at this point. Could see the Bills scoring in the 20-24 range so I'm leaning on the team over once again. Prob have to ride it till the wheels fall off.