***7***

ty cxbbum! NIce to start the week off 3-0, hopefully it continues. Haven't locked anything in yet, but I missed the huge +9.5 with Buffalo early in the week. That is a silly line, I don't care how good the Fins really are.


Bills notes.... Gilmore did not have a good effect on the last game, at least not as much as I thought he would. He clearly was not in top form and was erased out of a couple short passes that turned into big gainers. The offensive line played piss poor, I am more than happy to see Colin Brown gone as Legurski is the better all around olineman. The Bills no doubt miss Levitre. Spiller was pretty banged up throughout the whole game but still showed moments where he looked explosive. He will play this week but I think once again he may be limited, so Choice may see more time again. Thad took a beating, though despite the pressure I think he played a very good game. As I suspected the dropoff from EJ was not noticeable- if anything Thad throws a better sideline deep ball. Goodwin back into the offense injected some life, but any time Stevie J is out the wr core takes a major hit. I will say that was the best game TJ Graham has played, and likely the worst Woods played (2 catches for 9 yards on 6 targets). Going into the season I thought the Bills depth at wr would be a huge advantage, and this will be the first game that everyone will be suited up for. In the end I lost the ML wager but there was a chance, played the spread and tt as I was tailgating so I was ok but the ML would have been nice. Horrid ot for Buffalo.

Thad's first road start has to be the reason this line is so high, and I do worry about Wake getting to Thad in this one. I think the loss of Ellerbe in the middle could be big... with SJ back and Chandler I hope the Bills will be able to establish a run and work the middle on play action. I'm not sold on the Fins defense as a top tir one... this is by far the best rushing attack they have faced, or at the least the most dedicated to the run. Prior to this game they faced the #27, 25, 23 8th & 22nd ranked rushing attacks. The Colts were the best run game they faced, now they face #3 with Fred/Spiller. Spiller has had 140+ all purpose last 3 times he faced Miami. My biggest concern is a quick big lead from Miami that forces the Bills to abandon the run, but I think the secondary playing together another week has to make them gel more. Brooks is playing this week. Mario is up against the o lineman that has allowed 5 sacks, so I can see the Bills getting to Tannehill. I really don't fear the Fins run game all that much but I do worry about Wallace and the big play. 43 is a tight number but I think I could only play Bills overs at this point. Could see the Bills scoring in the 20-24 range so I'm leaning on the team over once again. Prob have to ride it till the wheels fall off.
 
Sunday


Bills team o17.5

Patriots/Jets o43.5-102

Chargers-7.5+100

Bengals team o23+100

Redskins+105

Cowboys+135

Ravens team o20-105


4 units each




Bills+245

Rams+265

1 unit each



Pleaser @+1875

Cowboys-4
Chargers-15.5
Rams+1

1 unit



Parlay @+945

Chargers ML
Bengals/Lions o46.5
Cowboys+4.5-158
Rams+7.5-130
Broncos ml

2 units
 
I think the Jets and Titans could be live, but Fitz vs a defense makes me hold off at least until the half. Leaning on making a KC play in some form, maybe a tt over situation they could roll. Looking to exploit 2ndh lines today as it's a Bills road game and I'm hungover as shit
 
Also, love the Bills TT over again. Ride it until it dies.


Have to. Bills at +9.5 were a great bet but now I will wait till the half and see if they are down for some value. Bills have to protect the ball much better than they have been, but I hope we see some sparks in the passing game. :thumbsup2:
 
10-9 +14.96 for sunday:hello:


Broncos team u30+160

Broncos team u27.5+223

Broncos/Colts u28-105 1sth

2 units each
 
ty guys...


Colts+7.5-102 2ndh

Colts+360 2ndh

Broncos/Colts o28.5-105 2ndh

Colts tt o13+100 2ndh

2 units each


 
Indy+3.5+175 2ndh had no business losing. The late fg took the Broncos adjusted tt under from a push to a loss as well, so a nice 5 unit swing right there. Got a bad number on the Indy 2ndh because I didn't want to lay on 10.5-140 to boot. Looking back over the card I feel like the only bad wagers I had were including Rams in my longshots (nearly had the Bills in the pleaser so bitter about that), and playing the Titans/Browns who I had my doubts about from the jump. Boned on the Doug Martin prop as he went down when he was well on his way. Feel like I'm seeing things right though a little restraint would have done me well this week. 15-14 +16.81
 
Vikings+3+105

Vikings team o21-125

3 units each



Give me the team catching points in this matchup. AP in primetime vs a team in disarray. Can't lay chalk with a team dead last in turnovers who will likely be trotting out Peyton Hillis as the starting rb. Two bad defenses but NYG will likely be very one dimensional today. Though it remains to be seen whether or not Freeman is an upgrade, I suspect he feels fortunate to get another shot at starting. Would have to think Jennings gets more than a few downfield targets but I think it all depends on AP's success. Looked into AP prop but if I play it he will break his leg or something so this is likely all for tonight. GL :badass:
 
I think there's value on Minn tonight as Freeman gets a chance to turnaround his career. At worst, he manages the game and hands to AP 25+ times. I don't see him looking as bad as MINN's other QB options. Good luck
 
Back
Top