That movement on the Chips/Aztecs was interesting as it looked like money was buying Chips at everything 3.5 and better. Now it's starting to go back the other way, back in the Aztecs' direction. It never got below 3 before it came back the other way. I've seen you guys mention that this line should be higher - Which is why this game sticks out to me like a sore fucking thumb. Sagarin's system says this game should be lined anywhere from +7 to +9 .. what the fuck? So there's your proof. However, I also saw a ESPN talking head recommending that you buy the Chips plus points, not because he thinks they win, but because of the low-scoring nature he predicts the game to be - and you can usually bet on ESPN talking-head dudes being square as fuck. But even so, that line still feels like bait.
One factor I need more info on is that this game is being played at altitude. I read McElwain saying that his squad has been adjusting locally for some time so it won't be an issue: "We've been here long enough now that we've acclimated ourselves," McElwain said. "Obviously, the hydration and other things to go along with it."
The Aztecs, favored to edge the Chippewas, arrived in Albuquerque Wednesday and practiced in near-freezing temperatures. The cold didn’t dampen their spirits during 65-minute practice though. Teammates individually hoisted San Diego State’s 15 departing seniors to honor them as they left the field.
After the Chippewas suffered a 26-21 defeat at the hands of Miami in the title game, McElwain and his staff immediately shifted their focus to recruiting. Just for one week, McElwain said it was good to get a week on the road while his current athletes shifted their focus to exams. "We had one week on the road," McElwain said. "Our kids had finals that week and were able to get some things done." With the Chippewas set to travel Wednesday to Albuquerque to prepare for their bowl game, McElwain added that the recruiting staff and compliance officers will travel with the team and handle all of their duties while stationed in Albuquerque.
So Boom there you have it: both teams arrived in Albuquerque on Wednesday, and apparently McElwain thinks that's "long enough to acclimate." This feels like a big unknown to me, and is what has me liking the over in the 2H.
As for my personal research, I dove in and found out that McElwain has gone 4-2 to the over in postseason games (4-0 as the dog) and 10-2 career O/U against teams that average 21 or fewer ppg on offense (Aztecs average 19). Strictly in dude's career games as the underdog, McElwain 13-3 career O/U vs teams that average 31 or fewer ppg on offense. I'm also seeing that Rocky Long 2-4 SU and 0-6 ATS laying 3 or more points in postseason games. So there's my confirmation bias that aligns with my prejudices regarding the line/total. I don't know who this dude is (he might be pro or might be a huge tool IDK you tell me) but he is kinda on the same page as me right now:
Central Michigan vs. San Diego State Line Movement: Laying a short spread with San Diego State has seemed like a fairly easy decision for most bettors. Sixty-eight percent have taken the Aztecs, but the line movement hasn't reflected it. After opening at -4½ San Diego State has fallen to -3½, which should serve as an indication that bettors are taking the points. Also despite an even higher majority backing the under (72% of bets), the total has seen little movement since opening. - Danny Donahue
Seems too easy to lay that short number. I love betting dogs, and won a grip of cash on Kent State last night, so I might just be acting like a geek with money in his pocket - but I think I'm gonna go Chips and over and see if they can break out for 30+ today.
On the other side, if you just read all that shit I wrote and
you still want to fade the MAC, that's actually been a good idea recently. Teams coming off the MAC Championship game have gone 1-13 SU and 1-11-2 ATS in the subsequent bowl game the L7 seasons. YIKES. The average handicap given to those fourteen teams was +4 which totally parallels the situation today.
