5 wks into the season, what have you learned? Me a lot...............LOL

[Gyno]

Kennedy is not a good pitcher..

I've been too conservative fading the Astros. They won't win 50 games this season.

Norris and Harrell used to be good at home, they aren't good anywhere.

Phillies are a disgrace, Halladay will never be fully trusted again.

Dodgers BP has done a complete 360, once a strength now a glaring weakness.

White Sox have the worst OBP in MLB @ .280, thats just sad

Unless the Reds are playing the Cubs they suck on road.

Rockies lineup is more legit than I thought. Its really a good lineup 1-7.

Zimmerman is a top 5 pitcher, I always thought he was top 10-15, but hes a stud.

Seattle has a deadly 1-2 and a shitty 3-4-5

Rangers are going to win AL West

Teams are batting .271 vs the Yanks. Interesting.

Tigers BP has an ERA of 4 (18th) but an OPP BA of .211 (1st)

 

[Hawaiiguy]

Angels are terrible and have probably made all my profit this year, whether fading them at plus money or playing the over, or both (see today).

Overs in general this year appear to be hitting at a pretty high rate (anyone has numbers?) I did hear that this is the highest home run totals in XXX games since 2007......HGH anyone?

Unlike the Angels, I do feel Toronto will improve substantially. The lineup is going through a "team funk" right now. At 11-21, I am willing to bet they finish .500 or a few games above over the last 130 games.

The old, always bet UNDER at Seattle, San Diego, and Mets probably isn't holding any water this year with the pulled in fences at the three parks and much improved line ups.

 

[chong297]

11 of the Royals 17 wins are come from behind victories. There's no quit in this team.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

At 11-21, I am willing to bet they finish .500 or a few games above over the last 130 games.

If that's the case then they're going to have to win at a phenomenal rate in their non-divisional games, because the 3 best AL East teams are going to eat them alive, and Tampa will get their share as well.

They're currently 4-12 SU vs AL East teams (without having faced Tampa once), 7-9 SU vs everybody else.

 

[Hawaiiguy]

At 11-21, I am willing to bet they finish .500 or a few games above over the last 130 games.

If that's the case then they're going to have to win at a phenomenal rate in their non-divisional games, because the 3 best AL East teams are going to eat them alive, and Tampa will get their share as well.

They're currently 4-12 SU vs AL East teams (without having faced Tampa once), 7-9 SU vs everybody else.

For your point, probably not.

But to clarify, I am saying 65-65 over the remaining 130 games.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

For your point, probably not.

But to clarify, I am saying 65-65 over the remaining 130 games.

They have 61 left vs the AL East, therefore 69 vs everyone esle.

If they go 23-38 SU vs ALE (a winning rate of 37.7%, vs their current 25.0% win rate against them) then they'd need to go 42-27 SU (60.8% win rate) vs everyone else to manage your 65-65.

Like I said, they'd need a phenomenal win rate (based on their current output vs non-AL East sides, 7-9 SU translates to a 43.7% win rate), and I think I'm being generous to give them a 23-38 mark. Wouldn't suprise if they managed less than 20 wins in those remaining 61 games.

Needless to say (slash guess), you'll differ with me over their ALE prospects. They're that division's whipping boy. IMO that isn't going to change over this entire season, only & unless either the Yankees, Sox and/or O's fall into uncompetitiveness (which I don't see).

 

[detroit187]

miguel cabrera is the best hitter in baseball, bar none.

if the tigers played houston every game, they would go 140-22, the whole team would bat over 300, and cabrera would have 75home runs and 250rbis.

verlander would throw at least 4 no hitters.


other notes, is starling marte the next big thing?
the giants are still the best team in baseball, girardi should get a raise for what he has been doing, and it just feels like the red sox making headlines this fall will be an ode to the marathon bombings.

 

[Reds4]

Absolutely agree on Texas... don't see how they won't win the AL West... like the Rangers team..

The Cardinals can win a lot of games despite a terrible bullpen.

 

[Reds4]

So far this year- 211 games over (53.15%) and 186 under (46.85%). Definitely more overs at this point in the year than the last few years.

Angels are terrible and have probably made all my profit this year, whether fading them at plus money or playing the over, or both (see today).

Overs in general this year appear to be hitting at a pretty high rate (anyone has numbers?) I did hear that this is the highest home run totals in XXX games since 2007......HGH anyone?

Unlike the Angels, I do feel Toronto will improve substantially. The lineup is going through a "team funk" right now. At 11-21, I am willing to bet they finish .500 or a few games above over the last 130 games.

The old, always bet UNDER at Seattle, San Diego, and Mets probably isn't holding any water this year with the pulled in fences at the three parks and much improved line ups.

 

[Hawaiiguy]

So far this year- 211 games over (53.15%) and 186 under (46.85%). Definitely more overs at this point in the year than the last few years.

Thanks Reds for the info.

 

[slugur]

Darvish has 72 K's in 45.2 innings. That is a sick ratio. It's probably impossible for him to keep up the pace, but that's an unreal K/IP ratio in his first 7 starts.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

So far this year- 211 games over (53.15%) and 186 under (46.85%). Definitely more overs at this point in the year than the last few years.

Down to basically 4 teams: the Tigers, A's, Mutts & BrewCrew...(pushes in brackets)...

OAK - 25-7 to Over: only 5 games totaling less than 7 runs/4 totalling less than 6 runs.
MIL - 21-9 to Over: only 6 games totalling less than 7 runs/4 totalling less than 6 runs.
NYM - 19-8(-1) to Over: only 7 games totalling less than 7 runs/5 totalling less than 6 runs.
DET - 19-10(-1) to Over: only 4 games totalling less than 7 runs/3 totalling less than 6 runs.

Combined, that's a 84-34(-2) to Over mark (a mere 28.8% Under rate, not counting pushes).

The rest of the MLB is then left with a 152-127 to Under mark (using your figure, which presumably ignores pushes), a figure which reflects a 54.4% Under rate (hardly anything abnormal).

 

[B.A.R.]

Down to basically 4 teams: the Tigers, A's, Mutts & BrewCrew...(pushes in brackets)...

OAK - 25-7 to Over: only 5 games totaling less than 7 runs/4 totalling less than 6 runs.
MIL - 21-9 to Over: only 6 games totalling less than 7 runs/4 totalling less than 6 runs.
DET - 19-10(-1) to Over: only 4 games totalling less than 7 runs/3 totalling less than 6 runs.
NYM - 19-8(-1) to Over: only 7 games totalling less than 7 runs/5 totalling less than 6 runs.

Combined, that's a 84-34(-2) to Over mark (a mere 28.8% Under rate, not counting pushes).

The rest of the MLB is then left with a 152-127 to Under mark (using your figure, which presumably ignores pushes), a figure which reflects a 54.4% Under rate (hardly anything abnormal).

:shake:

 

[Reds4]

Agree with BetCrimes about a few teams pushing the overs a lot... still is interesting that the overall league has more than 53% overs, because I believe unders have usually been very good in the month of April. I think the value will be on the under with Oakland in the coming weeks.. that lineup can't keep hitting as well as they are..

 

[cashflowmatters]

Houston is still a $$$making fade

Boston might be over rated/over hyped


Phillies are on the brink of being one of mlbs worst teams


Betting on the Reds is like playing Russian roulette

 

[RudyNYC]

Kennedy is not a good pitcher.. But he can hit!

I've been too conservative fading the Astros. They won't win 50 games this season. Agree

Norris and Harrell used to be good at home, they aren't good anywhere. Agree

Phillies are a disgrace, Halladay will never be fully trusted again. Continue to fade until half the team is traded then be careful when youth comes in.

Dodgers BP has done a complete 360, once a strength now a glaring weakness. There are a lot of bad pens this year and with pitch counts for starters emphasized, play full games. Stay away from most 5 inning plays; wait for opposing pen to bring your team in.

White Sox have the worst OBP in MLB @ .280, thats just sad A lot of guys here were backing Chisox here early - that lineup is weak.

Unless the Reds are playing the Cubs they suck on road. Only play with confidence Reds at home vs. southpaws.

Rockies lineup is more legit than I thought. Its really a good lineup 1-7. Agree big time...shhhh!

Zimmerman is a top 5 pitcher, I always thought he was top 10-15, but hes a stud. Agree, but injury prone.

Seattle has a deadly 1-2 and a shitty 3-4-5 Did I hear get lost, Jason Bay? Also, ever wonder why Nats got rid of Michael Morse?

Rangers are going to win AL West Not so fast - the Pujoises always start slow!

Teams are batting .271 vs the Yanks. Interesting. The party is over for Los Jankees - schedule now gets tougher and SP will continue to break down. Basically, have won so far with smoke and mirrors!

Tigers BP has an ERA of 4 (18th) but an OPP BA of .211 (1st) If they find a 5th starter and get rid of Porcello, that mushroom, there will be no stopping them. Also, they miss Coke (don't we all?) and Dotel.

Angels are terrible and have probably made all my profit this year, whether fading them at plus money or playing the over, or both (see today). NOT SO FAST! Do not fade forever! Beware!

Overs in general this year appear to be hitting at a pretty high rate (anyone has numbers?) I did hear that this is the highest home run totals in XXX games since 2007......HGH anyone? I start my day by crossing out most UNDER possibilities (I gave up on boring UNDERS in 1973), then get my OVER list down - has been a winning formula this year, so far.

Unlike the Angels, I do feel Toronto will improve substantially. The lineup is going through a "team funk" right now. At 11-21, I am willing to bet they finish .500 or a few games above over the last 130 games. JMO but I see it the other way around - I see Blue Jays stuck in the mud most of the season and the Trouts going on a run sometime soon)

The old, always bet UNDER at Seattle, San Diego, and Mets probably isn't holding any water this year with the pulled in fences at the three parks and much improved line ups. Been feasting on Mets OVER - strong bats and lousy pen

11 of the Royals 17 wins are come from behind victories. There's no quit in this team. 100% agree!!!

miguel cabrera is the best hitter in baseball, bar none. Cabrera is #1, Posey 1a.


other notes, is starling marte the next big thing? Yes, love the Pirate team, esp. at home!

the giants are still the best team in baseball With little doubt, perhaps the Tigers are 1a.

girardi should get a raise for what he has been doing Bull sh_t - he is just doing what Torre did - NOTHING. It's all Cashman!!!

and it just feels like the red sox making headlines this fall will be an ode to the marathon bombings. Agree

Also:

- Orioles are for real
- Rays quietly making noise - cannot figure them out yet.
- Twins cannot be trusted to go agst. on any day
- A's are not the same as 2012 "smoke n' mirrors" team
- Braves have too many Uptons for me to take seriously long-term
- Marlins - speedy and young team translates to underdog opportunities
- Nats have not hit their best stride - they will!
- Cubs are 2nd worst team in baseball.....don't debate me on this one!
- Cards are the classiest team in NL...after the Giants!
- D'backs are in same category with Reds - never know which team will show up.
- The Mattingly's WIN the award!!! .....for most overrated team in MLB!
- Giants will repeat and have most one run wins in a season ever.
- I have too much time on my hands!

But what do I really know???

Rudy

 

[Gyno]

Great stuff Rudy
.

 

[tuck321]

Avoid Kennedy on 5 days rest.

 

[tuck321]

Norris and Harrell used to be good at home, they aren't good anywhere. Agree

Nonsense. Total absurd NONSENSE
Norris at home 4 games 7 earned runs. He is greatly effected by days rest. I believe next game he will NOT be on 4 days rest.
Harrel 5 out of 7 quality starts. He will also be on 5 days rest. The problem is a terrible team.

 

[tipyerbartender1]

Off topic, but since baseball fans take a peek in here ... what's my opinion of Kingman's performance? Never gets old.



[video=youtube_share;Yc3NUE7a_Cc]http://youtu.be/Yc3NUE7a_Cc[/video]

 

[Gyno]

Norris and Harrell used to be good at home, they aren't good anywhere. Agree

Nonsense. Total absurd NONSENSE
Norris at home 4 games 7 earned runs. He is greatly effected by days rest. I believe next game he will NOT be on 4 days rest.
Harrel 5 out of 7 quality starts. He will also be on 5 days rest. The problem is a terrible team.

agree or nonsense?

 

[nbafan88]

The yankees BP is in shambles. The lineup is getting more and more depleted by the game. Could be a rough next month or so..

 

[RudyNYC]

Let's just say pitchers with lifetime stats, as follows, can never carry a weak team (H or A):

Norris: 31-40, 4.39 ERA, 1.41 WHIP
Harrell: 15-16, 4.09, 1.50

 

[tuck321]

Lets say I have usually been betting against the Astros but when these 2 are at home on 5 days rest that stops. Jokes like Humber you fade obviously.

 

[Vituperate]

240 million dollars does not insure a good baseball team. How many owners over the years have never learned that lesson?

 

[RudyNYC]

Lets say I have usually been betting against the Astros but when these 2 are at home on 5 days rest that stops. Jokes like Humber you fade obviously.

Agree, afterall, one shouldn't fade, or follow, blindly. I like your twist to the Astro fade.

 

[Gyno]

I think we are all agreeing guys.. But Harrell has had a couple of shitters @ home already this season, 8 ER's given in both..

Bud Norris is definitely the Ace of the staff.. I watch out when he's @ home especially..

 

[Hawaiiguy]

Angels are terrible and have probably made all my profit this year, whether fading them at plus money or playing the over, or both (see today).

Overs in general this year appear to be hitting at a pretty high rate (anyone has numbers?) I did hear that this is the highest home run totals in XXX games since 2007......HGH anyone?

Unlike the Angels, I do feel Toronto will improve substantially. The lineup is going through a "team funk" right now. At 11-21, I am willing to bet they finish .500 or a few games above over the last 130 games.

The old, always bet UNDER at Seattle, San Diego, and Mets probably isn't holding any water this year with the pulled in fences at the three parks and much improved line ups.

Watching the Angels again today for the 50th time this year, it is safe to say that a run of any kind is impossible with the minor league pitching, starting, relieving and closing. Not to mention the minor league line up headed up by AA Player Josh Hamilton.

I could see Toronto improving substantially, but the starting pitching still worries me going forward.

Charlie Morton: I know a lot of guys here like to fade him, but watch out for this guy. Injuries have derailed ACE quality stuff from 2011 when he developed a near un-hittable sinker. Look back at 2011 when he got his sinker going, he was stellar. Then....injuries. His 2.00 ERA so far is also a fluke, it should be lower....

He gave up 4 hits in the first two innings today, bad defense and two errors will make his box score appear worse that it was. ONLY ONE hit left the infield. After that, he pitched shut down baseball.

His four seam fastball was hitting 96mph, his sinker was moving. The walks, IMO, watching the game will be remedied, and he was squeezed....

Just my opinion....