5 run chase for wednesday

[cisco]

4/16
Ytd 22-0 +2368
Actual 22-17


Yesterday 0-5
Boston won gm 2. On to gm 3
Arizona won 8-2. Skip 2 games to gm 2
Dodgers won 11-2. Sip 2 games to gm 2
St Louis won 6-1. Skip 2 games to gm 2
Seattle won gm 2 11-6. Skip 2 games to gm 3

Today
Play Against: Boston gm 3
Bet on: Yankees

Play Against: Atlanta gm 1
Bet on: Florida

Play Against: White Sox gm 1
Bet on: Baltimore

Play Against: Cleveland gm 1
Bet on: Detroit

Play Against: Angels gm 1
Bet on: Kansas City

Play Against: Pittsburgh gm 1
Bet on: Dodgers

Philly vs Houston
I’ll play against the winner

Pending
4/17 col @ sd gm 2
4/18 sea @ laa gm 3
4/18 tor vs det
4/18 mets @ phi
4/18 stl vs sf gm 2
4/18 sd @ ari (problem)
4/19 ari @ sd gm 2
4/19 lad @ atl gm 2

n/p = no play

If you see an error let me know.

.<!-- / message --><!-- sig -->

 

[frankiegotti]

thanks and GL.

 

[Clyde]

Question:
In a previous post, I believe you said that a 4 game losing streak happened 10 times last year. 10 times out of how many opportunities..

You wrote you had 14 wins at game 4.. So that would be 14 wins out of 24 games... 58%

Maybe I'm missing something..

 

[cisco]

Clyde-


Correct

last years numbers:
14 wins out of 24 games... 58%

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pg_wnj1gVNQ8v3U0fWegIOg&hl=en


.

 

[Clyde]

2007 stats:
Game 1: 160 wins/ 293 games = 54.6%
Game 2: 74 wins/ 133 games = 55.6%
Game 3: 35 wins/ 59 games = 59%
Game 4: 14 wins/ 24 games = 58%
10 Losses

Games 1 & 2 combined for 80% of the winners.

Nice work Cisco. Really easy system to follow. I will definitely be playing this..

:cheers:

 

[cisco]

Good thing you didn't play yesterday. :hang:

 

[Peldas]

Clyde-


Correct

last years numbers:
14 wins out of 24 games... 58%

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pg_wnj1gVNQ8v3U0fWegIOg&hl=en


.

Something wrong with this spreadsheets, because you have:
283 wins (1gm=147, 2gm=73, 3gm=36, 4gm=14 ---and sum of this has to be 283, because this are wins. And its not. its only 270)

I think this is ok:
http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pg_wnj1gVNQ_SijRN7nkSAA&hl=en

283 wins= 160(gm1) + 74(gm2)+35(gm3)+14(gm)

Tell me if I am wrong.
I am playnig right now with this numbers. With different stakes. I like it a loooot!!
:shake:

 

[RambleOn]

Cisco - very nice work you are doing, sir.

What is the Game 3 and Game 4 records so far THIS year?

:shake: Thinking about tailing those games.....

 

[Peldas]

I took your plays (283=160gm1+74gm2+35gm3+14gm4+10L):

So I was playing with stakes, I took avg line +100, because I don't have real lines.
Here are results:

If your stakes are for 4 game system:
1-1-1-1 you would have +57 Units (based on avg line +100)
1-(1+1)-1-1 You would have +72 Units
1-(1+1)-(3+1)-1 You would have +105 Units
3-1-1-1 You would have +111 Units
1-(1+1)-(3+1)-(7+1) You would have +133 Units (this is your way, but it could be to much stress, because you have to stake in fourth game 8 units)
2-1-1-1 You would have +84 Units
2-2-1-1 You would have +99 Units
3-3-1-1 you would have +141 Units

I calculated also for 3 game system, but 4 game is better.

For me is the best way 3-1-1-1 or 3-3-1-1

I will definetly start playing this. 3-1-1-1 Because your stake is higher on first game, and then your stakes are lower.

So my philosophy on this is this, based on your plays with 283 games.
5+ run wins will happen 293 times
So you will play 293 systems

160 of 293 games will be gm1 wins. And this is more then half, so my philosophy is to attack this first games.
But problem is, that you don't know, which games are this.
So you will have 160*3 units = +480 Units profit
and -74*3-35*3-14*3-10*3=-399
toghter=+81 Units

In this 133 cases, you will have +74 Units for gm2, +35 for gm3 and +14 for gm4 (that is +123 Units)
And also in this 123 cases you will have (for gm1 I calculated already) -35 for gm3, -28 for gm4 and -30 for L = -93
+123-93=+30 Units

Togheter: 81+31 Units= +111 Units, what is solid and without that big stress.

-----------------------
You can take also 3-3-1-1 stakes, what is the best option (+141 Units), but here you have 6 units in first two games and it could be dangerous. But is stil better, then if you have to place 8 units in last one.

any comments welcome :shake:

 

[Peldas]

But 1 season is to small base for making some conclusions.

If anybody has results for last 5 years or so with all the games and results in excell file I can make some analysis.

 

[cisco]

Ramble- one gm 3 and one gm 4
Another gm 3 coming up after Boston. Check the Pending section.

 

[Peldas]

4-1-1-1 = +134 Units
5-1-1-1 = +165 Units

...

 

[cisco]

Peldas- get your pencil and go here
http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/pastresults/2008/team2980.html

This gives you Cleveland. You can go back to 1999 for any team.

Report back here with your findings.

 

[Peldas]

Peldas- get your pencil and go here
http://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/mlb/teams/pastresults/2008/team2980.html

This gives you Cleveland. You can go back to 1999 for any team.

Report back here with your findings.

Thanks. Get to work :cheers: