5 RC- It's finished

[cisco]

THIS LAST WEEK HAS BEEN AN ABOSLUTE DISASTER.
I AM SHUTTING DOWN WHEN THE CURRENT GAMES FINISH THEIR CHASE. I WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ALL OF THE GAMES AND REPORT IF THERE IS ANY IMPROVEMENT.



5/7
Series ytd 57-5 -3424
Actual 58-71

Yesterday 1-8
Minnesota lost. I win +100
St Louis won gm 3. On to gm 4.
Oakland won gm 3. On to gm 4
Arizona won gm 1.On to gm 2
Boston won 5-0. skip 2 gms to gm 2
Pittsburgh won 12-6. Skip 2 gms to gm 2
Cubs won gm 3. On to gm 4
Dodgers won gm 3. On to gm 4
Angels won gm 4. I lose -1740


gm 1) 32
gm 2) 14
gm 3) 6
gm 4) 5
gm 5) 3
gm 6) 1


Today -
Play Against: St Louis gm 4
Bet on: Colorado

Play Against: Oakland gm 4
Bet on: Baltimore

Play Against: Arizona gm 2
Bet on: Philly

Play Against: Cubs gm 4
Bet on: Cincinnati

Play Against: Dodgers gm 4
Bet on: Mets


Pending
5/9 bos @ min
5/9 pit vs atl

NO NEW GAMES

 

[mogo]

ouch sorry to hear things have turned for the worse.....

GL and i hope things turn around for you and the system... :shake:

 

[frankiegotti]

well we gave it a valient effort, hopefully teh system turns around.

 

[Puppetm716]

Stuck with it with G4 win from Cinn. NYMets up big in their G4.
Balt needs to rally in Their G4.

It has to turn around.

Best of Luck.

Thanks Cisco

 

[stackedpack]

System tweak

I'm new to this forum and have been tracking your system and have noticed a possible way to improve it.

If a team wins by 5 or more and they lose the two games you skip, throw them out because you lost your opportunity to bet against them. Back testing that with today's plays, fading Oakland and Chicago would be thrown out. With the above rule applied, you could have faded St.Louis with Chicago on 5/3 and won thus avoided todays fade of St.Louis game 4 at Colorado (under your current system, Chicago and St.Louis both needed to lose on 5/3 but fading Chicago was already in the chase).

With this tweak, your only game 4 today was to fade LAD. Perhaps you can backtrack your plays and see if this helps. I don't have all your plays.

Stackedpack

 

[frankiegotti]

good info stackpack, will be interesting to see.

 

[FloppyBoy]

This is the destiny of chase systems..especially the ones without any logic behind..
Sorry for your losses!

 

[BetCrimes1984]

stackedpack makes a very worthy observation. I'd go even further and say if someone is going to backtrack, to split their findings into 3 groupings

teams who win both interum games
teams who lose both,
teams who split (and even getting deeper, whether the split is W/L or L/W)

And since this is unlikely to produce stat pools big enough to make real sense of, to go over last seasons results with the same template. This is like any other job, the more leg work you do, the more successful you set yourself up to be.

 

[cisco]

Got 3 outta 4 gm 4's today losing the Baltimore game by one run in 10 innings.

 

[cisco]

I've been tracking what happens to a team right after winning by 5 runs.

Won on:
gm1) 68
gm2) 29
gm3) 21
gm4) 9
gm5) 2
gm6) 2

 

[cisco]

stackpacked-
Thank you. i'll look into this tomorrow.

 

[cisco]

stackpacked, you wonderful bastard!:tiphat:

Here are the results of my six losses,

Seattle -1788
4/17 8-1
4/18 L
4/19 L

Tampa Bay -1778
4/19 5-0
4/20 L
4/21 W

Washington -1854
4/24 10-5
4/25 W
4/26 L

Oakland -2541
4/28 14-2
4/29 L
4/30 L

Angels -1740
4/30 6-1
5/1 L
5/2 L

Oakland -1500
5/1 15-8
5/2 L
5/3 L

The four losses, if thrown out, comes to 7569 saved!!



.

 

[cisco]

Using stackpacked's info, I'm eliminating 2 series slated to start tomorrow. Colorado and the Yankees.
Even though I'm not going to be posting I'm still playing on my own.

 

[doogie]

Boooo!! Why not post? I work shift work and have a heckuva time keeping up on my own (along with wifey and two teens).
Thanks for all you've done thus far, I am going to try this tweaked system also (if I can keep up).

You will still keep posting the HF plays right?:smiley_acbe:

 

[doogie]

One more thing...are you going to discard a series if the team loses just one game of the two skipped or only if they lose both of the skipped games?

 

[frankiegotti]

What is the new angle, i seem to not get/see it? Thank in advance.

 

[mogo]

yeah i don't really follow what the new angle is either.....?

 

[cisco]

doogie-
I don't want people to lose money. Right now I'm on a losing streak. I'll get it back together soon.

HF system stays as is. Pull for Cleveland to win today.

frankie
I'll need for the team to lose both of the skip games to eliminate it from the chase.

example;
win 6-0
1st skip win
2nd skip lose
This team stays in the chase

win 7-0
1st skip lose
2nd skip lose
This team is eliminated from the chase. (we've lost the edge)

 

[cisco]

Going through 2007 results

3 of 10 losses would have been dropped from the chase for a savings of 52 units.

And those shaky games 3 & 4.
game 3's. 9 of 33 would have been dropped.
game 4's. 3 of 14 would have been dropped.



.

 

[frankiegotti]

oh ok, thanks for the explanation cisco. I was also wondering if teams that are on losing or winning streaks provide unfavorable results? By streaks i mean 3 or more consecutive games.