5/24/2008 MLB Sides/Totals
- Thread starter tru
- Start date
Liking this seems like such an obvious over after yesterday but since SEA has scored 3 RUNS or less in 11 of 14 @ Yankee Stadium ( and just once in the past 13 meetings( start of 07 to 08) the 7-1 vs Clemens) your looking at NYY theoritically having to put up 7 . Which I think as long as the SEA pen doesnt blow up NYY scores about 6 here...if I have this right Yanks were 9-2 at home last year the game after scoring 10 + runs playing again at home and winning and 20-3 overall when winning with 10+ runs the next game regardless if it was home or away and they lost the next game the 1st times they won and scored 10+ last year. They did score 15 vs Boston and lose next one at home this year
So in 2007 when Yanks won a game scoring 10 or more runs they were 20-3 the next game at 9-2 if both games were at home . This year one instice scoring 15 vs Boston then losing 7-4 to Beckett. The 3 losses last year were at home vs Bedard(vs Rasner) 6-4 (PUSH 10), at home vs Lackey 2-1(vs Clemens)(UNDER) and away @ Minny 5-1 to Ramon Ortiz who started last April on fire but was also Twins avoiding the home sweep (Under).....
We make alot of Over-Unders with UMPS but catchers I think have a bigger role. I may be mistaken but scribbled down that when Jose Molina catches Yanks were 21-3 Under till the Sunday night game which went over , as did the next day with the Unearned runs for Moose and then a recent under so somewhere around 22-5 Under when he catches... He has caught all Moose starts exept 4-17 and 4-23 both overs . Granted ARods absence plays a large role as well but clear Molina is solid at calling a game and his hitting his weak especially in comparision to Posada but even to Moeller .
Mike Mussina (R) Last 10 Starts
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="13%">Date</TD><TD width="12%">Opposition</TD><TD width="8%">Scr</TD><TD width="12%">Line</TD><TD width="5%">W/L</TD><TD width="5%">IP</TD><TD width="5%">H</TD><TD width="5%">R</TD><TD width="5%">ER</TD><TD width="4%">SO</TD><TD width="4%">BB</TD><TD width="4%">HR</TD><TD width="6%">PIT</TD><TD width="6%">P/IP</TD><TD width="6%">G/F</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/20/08</TD><TD class=datacell>BAL</TD><TD class=datacell>2-12</TD><TD class=datacell>-146/9</TD><TD class=datacell>L/O</TD><TD class=datacell>0.2</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>41 </TD><TD class=datacell>61.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.00</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/14/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ TB</TD><TD class=datacell>2-1</TD><TD class=datacell>125/8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>6.1</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>87 </TD><TD class=datacell>13.7 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.80</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/08/08</TD><TD class=datacell>CLE</TD><TD class=datacell>6-3</TD><TD class=datacell>-145/10</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>5.0</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>3 </TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>86 </TD><TD class=datacell>17.2 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.40</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/03/08</TD><TD class=datacell>SEA</TD><TD class=datacell>6-1</TD><TD class=datacell>101/8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>6.0</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>84 </TD><TD class=datacell>14.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>2.25</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/28/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ CLE</TD><TD class=datacell>5-2</TD><TD class=datacell>102/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>5.0</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>92 </TD><TD class=datacell>18.4 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.62</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/23/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ CHW</TD><TD class=datacell>6-4</TD><TD class=datacell>136/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>101 </TD><TD class=datacell>14.4 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.80</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/17/08</TD><TD class=datacell>BOS</TD><TD class=datacell>5-7</TD><TD class=datacell>123/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/O</TD><TD class=datacell>3.0</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>5 </TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>77 </TD><TD class=datacell>25.7 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.33</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/12/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ BOS</TD><TD class=datacell>3-4</TD><TD class=datacell>153/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/U</TD><TD class=datacell>5.2</TD><TD class=datacell>8</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>4 </TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>71 </TD><TD class=datacell>12.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.50</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/07/08</TD><TD class=datacell>TB</TD><TD class=datacell>6-1</TD><TD class=datacell>-183/10</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>6.0</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>82 </TD><TD class=datacell>13.7 </TD><TD class=datacell>2.75</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/02/08</TD><TD class=datacell>TOR</TD><TD class=datacell>2-5</TD><TD class=datacell>-137/8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/U</TD><TD class=datacell>5.2</TD><TD class=datacell>8</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>3 </TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>91 </TD><TD class=datacell>16.1 </TD><TD class=datacell>3.67
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
So he was 7-1 UNDER with Moose and the over well its largely due to the uneraned runs turning a 1 run 1st into a 7 run 1st.....and SEA is 0-4 allowing 10 runs or better this year...:cheers:Think I prefer NYY more then the under so might parlay it
So in 2007 when Yanks won a game scoring 10 or more runs they were 20-3 the next game at 9-2 if both games were at home . This year one instice scoring 15 vs Boston then losing 7-4 to Beckett. The 3 losses last year were at home vs Bedard(vs Rasner) 6-4 (PUSH 10), at home vs Lackey 2-1(vs Clemens)(UNDER) and away @ Minny 5-1 to Ramon Ortiz who started last April on fire but was also Twins avoiding the home sweep (Under).....
We make alot of Over-Unders with UMPS but catchers I think have a bigger role. I may be mistaken but scribbled down that when Jose Molina catches Yanks were 21-3 Under till the Sunday night game which went over , as did the next day with the Unearned runs for Moose and then a recent under so somewhere around 22-5 Under when he catches... He has caught all Moose starts exept 4-17 and 4-23 both overs . Granted ARods absence plays a large role as well but clear Molina is solid at calling a game and his hitting his weak especially in comparision to Posada but even to Moeller .
Mike Mussina (R) Last 10 Starts
<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR class=datahead><TD width="13%">Date</TD><TD width="12%">Opposition</TD><TD width="8%">Scr</TD><TD width="12%">Line</TD><TD width="5%">W/L</TD><TD width="5%">IP</TD><TD width="5%">H</TD><TD width="5%">R</TD><TD width="5%">ER</TD><TD width="4%">SO</TD><TD width="4%">BB</TD><TD width="4%">HR</TD><TD width="6%">PIT</TD><TD width="6%">P/IP</TD><TD width="6%">G/F</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/20/08</TD><TD class=datacell>BAL</TD><TD class=datacell>2-12</TD><TD class=datacell>-146/9</TD><TD class=datacell>L/O</TD><TD class=datacell>0.2</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>41 </TD><TD class=datacell>61.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.00</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/14/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ TB</TD><TD class=datacell>2-1</TD><TD class=datacell>125/8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>6.1</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>87 </TD><TD class=datacell>13.7 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.80</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/08/08</TD><TD class=datacell>CLE</TD><TD class=datacell>6-3</TD><TD class=datacell>-145/10</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>5.0</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>3 </TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>86 </TD><TD class=datacell>17.2 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.40</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>05/03/08</TD><TD class=datacell>SEA</TD><TD class=datacell>6-1</TD><TD class=datacell>101/8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>6.0</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>84 </TD><TD class=datacell>14.0 </TD><TD class=datacell>2.25</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/28/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ CLE</TD><TD class=datacell>5-2</TD><TD class=datacell>102/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>5.0</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>92 </TD><TD class=datacell>18.4 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.62</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/23/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ CHW</TD><TD class=datacell>6-4</TD><TD class=datacell>136/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>W/O</TD><TD class=datacell>7.0</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2 </TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>101 </TD><TD class=datacell>14.4 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.80</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/17/08</TD><TD class=datacell>BOS</TD><TD class=datacell>5-7</TD><TD class=datacell>123/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/O</TD><TD class=datacell>3.0</TD><TD class=datacell>7</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD><TD class=datacell>5 </TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>77 </TD><TD class=datacell>25.7 </TD><TD class=datacell>0.33</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/12/08</TD><TD class=datacell>@ BOS</TD><TD class=datacell>3-4</TD><TD class=datacell>153/9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/U</TD><TD class=datacell>5.2</TD><TD class=datacell>8</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>4 </TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>0</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>71 </TD><TD class=datacell>12.5 </TD><TD class=datacell>1.50</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/07/08</TD><TD class=datacell>TB</TD><TD class=datacell>6-1</TD><TD class=datacell>-183/10</TD><TD class=datacell>W/U</TD><TD class=datacell>6.0</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1 </TD><TD class=datacell>3</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>82 </TD><TD class=datacell>13.7 </TD><TD class=datacell>2.75</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>04/02/08</TD><TD class=datacell>TOR</TD><TD class=datacell>2-5</TD><TD class=datacell>-137/8.5</TD><TD class=datacell>L/U</TD><TD class=datacell>5.2</TD><TD class=datacell>8</TD><TD class=datacell>4</TD><TD class=datacell>3 </TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>2</TD><TD class=datacell>1</TD><TD class=datacell>91 </TD><TD class=datacell>16.1 </TD><TD class=datacell>3.67
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
So he was 7-1 UNDER with Moose and the over well its largely due to the uneraned runs turning a 1 run 1st into a 7 run 1st.....and SEA is 0-4 allowing 10 runs or better this year...:cheers:Think I prefer NYY more then the under so might parlay it
tru
Friend of CTG
damn nut great info, i think yanks win today no doubt but cant lay tha -185 price. id have to fuck wit tha RL +100 but really liked everything about todays matchup to point to tha under. liked it yesterday also but that 8 run inning fucked up chances for that under to cash. good luck today nut, really hopin moose brings his shit he came wit tha 4 games before his last game vs bmore.
thanks kyle, haha no doubt u didnt know tru tv was up an runnin wit tha weekly latenight god sermons? think i made a topic a few months ago in GD when tru tv came on tha air
thanks kyle, haha no doubt u didnt know tru tv was up an runnin wit tha weekly latenight god sermons? think i made a topic a few months ago in GD when tru tv came on tha air
Fondybadger
CTG Partner
GL Tru
damn nut great info, i think yanks win today no doubt but cant lay tha -185 price. id have to fuck wit tha RL +100 but really liked everything about todays matchup to point to tha under. liked it yesterday also but that 8 run inning fucked up chances for that under to cash. good luck today nut, really hopin moose brings his shit he came wit tha 4 games before his last game vs bmore.
thanks kyle, haha no doubt u didnt know tru tv was up an runnin wit tha weekly latenight god sermons? think i made a topic a few months ago in GD when tru tv came on tha air
My cuckoo calculations had the key area being Mussina not allowing Seattle to get an early big lead so with that in mind looking at the situation and sort of weighing the SP lightly in some ways I think NY wins this game probbaly a good 75% of the time which in my eyes creates value in this game even at -180 cause only at -300 would I see they as expensive which has nothing do with where the line should be . This teams are very simliar to there 07 versions in personnel and think NYY was -160 to -170 when DelSalvo , Hughes and Igawa started around 140 to 150 with Rasner at home. So really thought -160 is where it would open but the situation tacts on value SP history , h2h history and how both teams are playing....BOL to us.....:cheers: Played it ML -1.5 and Under but less on the total...:shake:
